From Safety4Sea
CHIRP Maritime analysis of 16 years of SAFETY4SEA incident reports shows how weather conditions influence maritime risk
Every sailor has a story about storms.
But how much of the risk at sea is actually linked to weather?
To explore this question, CHIRP Maritime examined 16 years of accident reports published by SAFETY4SEA, mapping more than 8,300 incidents worldwide between 2010 and 2026 and matching each one with the weather recorded at that location on the day of the incident.
CHIRP Maritime works with the University of Leeds MSc Business Analytics and Decision Sciences course and annually sponsors one or more graduates to analyse maritime incident data.
To explore this question, CHIRP Maritime examined 16 years of accident reports published by SAFETY4SEA, mapping more than 8,300 incidents worldwide between 2010 and 2026 and matching each one with the weather recorded at that location on the day of the incident.
CHIRP Maritime works with the University of Leeds MSc Business Analytics and Decision Sciences course and annually sponsors one or more graduates to analyse maritime incident data.
For this study, graduate Rakib Hossain analysed incident reports published on the SAFETY4SEA website.
The key test was simple: each accident day was compared with conditions at the same location one and two weeks before and after the incident.
The key test was simple: each accident day was compared with conditions at the same location one and two weeks before and after the incident.
The waters and season remained broadly the same; what changed was the weather.
Five findings stand out.
Rough weather genuinely raises the risk.
Accidents were 62% more likely to occur on rough days than on calm days at the same location.
When wave heights exceeded 2.5 metres, the risk more than doubled.
Accidents were markedly more likely on rough-weather days – and likeliest of all in heavy seas / Image Credit: CHIRP Maritime
Yet most accidents happen in ordinary conditions.
The typical accident day saw gusts of just 38 km/h, while severe storms featured in fewer than 2% of cases.
Crews may successfully avoid the worst weather, but more routine rough conditions can still catch ships out.
Weather picks its targets.
Ships left adrift or disabled encountered rough weather on almost one in four accident days, with sinkings and groundings close behind.
Fires and collisions showed little change, suggesting that weather plays a much smaller role in these incidents.
Rough weather hits disabled ships, sinkings and groundings hardest; fires and collisions barely respond. / Image Credit: CHIRP MaritimeCargo ships feel it most. Dry-cargo vessels — including bulk carriers, container ships and general cargo ships — were 84% more likely to experience an accident on rough days, representing the clearest ship-type effect.
Passenger ships showed the largest increase overall, although this was based on fewer cases, while tankers showed comparatively little change.
Dry-cargo ships show the clearest weather effect; the passenger-ship rise is striking but rests on fewer cases. / Image Credit: CHIRP Maritime
Dry-cargo ships show the clearest weather effect; the passenger-ship rise is striking but rests on fewer cases. / Image Credit: CHIRP MaritimeThe reports broadly reflect the recorded conditions.
When an article attributed an incident to weather, the meteorological records usually supported that assessment.
In storm-force gusts, seven in ten reports referred to weather as a factor, compared with around one in three during light winds.
Weather gets blamed more often as the measured wind gets stronger — the reports track reality. / Image Credit: CHIRP MaritimeThe message is clear: weather is not the whole story when it comes to maritime accidents, but it represents a real and measurable part of the risk – particularly during winter, in heavy seas and for vessels carrying the world’s dry cargo.
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