A map with the mark "TKP" (C), believed to indicate the possible location of the wreckage of
AirAsia flight QZ8501, is seen onboard SAR ship Purworejo on Jan. 1, 2015. (Reuters)
In an era where it’s possible to
track a stolen Macbook Pro
at the click of a button, it seems ludicrous to imagine an entire
airplane disappearing.
Yet, that’s exactly what happened this year,
twice, when
Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 mysteriously vanished in March, followed by a similar disappearing act on the part of
AirAsia QZ8501
on last Sunday 2014.
And, thanks to the outdated technology we use to track
aircraft, it’s an event that could happen again. The next time you’re on
a flight over the ocean, look down.
There’s a high probability that
nobody knows where you are.
and location where debris and bodies have been found
If that concerns you, it should, but it doesn’t seem to bother any of the regulatory agencies responsible for the safety of the
over three billion passengers who board airliners every year.
Nor does it upset
airlines.
Despite the fact that some of the technology used for tracking and
monitoring planes dates to the 1930s, regulators and airlines have been
slow to adopt alternative technologies, even though they’re available.
In 2015, we may be doomed to repeat the problems of 2014, unless we
rethink the way we monitor air traffic over the world’s oceans.
You might think that airline tracking relies on a highly sophisticated series of
satellites and
GPS,
but you’re actually wrong.
Planes are tracked via radar, an old but still
highly effective method of keeping track of large objects in the sky, but it has some flaws, even with the use of a combination of both
primary and secondary radar systems.
Air traffic control towers and military installations start by using
primary radar, which detects objects in range by reading reflected radio
signals, to track the movement of aircraft: Think of the classic
cockpit green screen with approaching fighter jets in an action movie.
Primary
radar works whether pilots want it to or not: It’s based entirely on an
external radar installation.
Unless the radar is turned off, it’ll
continue to function, although poor weather can cause problems, and
eventually, the curvature of the Earth makes it impossible to pick up
signals (a radar installation at San Francisco International, for
example, can’t detect a plane taking off from Tokyo Narita).
Secondary
radar requires interaction with a transponder in an aircraft, which can
be deactivated by pilots if they want to remain undetected, as, for
example, if a plane is hijacked.
The transponder contains details about
the plane, the flight, and other useful data for air traffic control to
help them track the movements of specific flights and plan runway
allocations, clearances, and other business accordingly.
(At major hubs
like O’Hare, as one might imagine, transponder data is critical to
prevent potentially horrific accidents.)
At about 150 miles out to
sea, civilian radar on shore can’t pick up planes anymore.
They’re only
visible on ship-mounted radar, which is entirely dependent on where
ships happen to be at any given point in time, and such radar
installations are primarily used by the military.
If a satellite happens
to be passing overhead and snapping photos at the right moment, it can
provide a clue, but satellites don’t simultaneously cover the entire
globe, even if
NSA
spying sometimes make this seem like a distinct possibility.
If pilots
run into trouble when they’re over the ocean, they can only call home
via high frequency radio.
Underwater search area with dimension of 57x10 nautical miles established.
Five ships are tasked, says Malaysia's chief of navy.
Photo: @ChiefofNavy/Twitter
Many aircraft vehicles are actually equipped with GPS to help pilots (like
Google Maps,
for airliners), but that data is not sent to air traffic control.
It's
possible to uplink and transmit that data, but the cost would be
extremely high.
Planes may periodically ping satellites to determine
their positions, but these contacts are few and far between, which is
how a plane can go missing with scant information about where it went.
Theoretically, a new navigation system called
Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast
(
ADS-B) will help replace radar as the primary tracking and navigation
tool for aircraft.
It uses interactions with other aircraft, ground
installations, and satellites to provide more information about aircraft
and flight paths, but it, like radar, is far less effective over the
ocean, unless airlines want to use expensive satellite uplinks.
Another
possible tool is
Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS), an innovative system used by many airlines to collect
in-flight data about their planes.
The system was primarily designed to
streamline service and maintenance, collecting information that could be
used to determine when and how planes need to be serviced.
The system
can also communicate with the ground about critical fixes that need to
be addressed, allowing technicians to be waiting on the runway with
supplies to reduce the turnaround time at airports. ACARS was actually
instrumental in locating Air France 447, lost in the Atlantic in 2009,
and even with the technology, it took
two years to find the black boxes.
The system, designed primarily as an efficiency tool, is found on approximately
90 percent of U.S. planes, but the same does not hold true around the world.
Early reporting
suggests the aircraft was equipped with ACARS, although AirAsia
Indonesia had not released the type and scope of data collected by press
time.
In the United States, the FAA is in the process of working
on a satellite-based tracking and navigation known as Next Gen.
The
advanced technology reflects the future of air traffic, but
unfortunately, it’s a number of years away, and it’s a voluntary
domestic navigation system, not a global one.
For Next Gen to be
effective for activities like tracking missing flights over the ocean,
it would need to be both global and required for all carriers under
international regulations.
Next Gen : an image of a flight plan graph
Meanwhile, “
black boxes”
(they’re actually bright orange) might seem like a good way to find a
plane, but they don’t emit GPS signals.
Instead, they use ultrasound,
which can only be picked up in limited depths.
If a plane goes down in
deep water, the black boxes are virtually impossible to locate, which
makes it difficult to determine what went wrong, and where.
If you think
black boxes should be continuously transmitting data throughout a
flight, you’re not alone; at the
Guardian, Stephen Trimble pointed out that they’re
ridiculously outdated, in part because planes have the equivalent of dialup uplink speeds in a time of
broadband.
Tomnod, searching web tool from DigitalGlobe imaging
In this case, the
searchers may be fortunate.
The plane was on a flight path in a high-traffic area with much more
substantial radar coverage, flying over shallower waters, which will
make it easier to locate, and once the remains are located,
investigators can start exploring the sequence of events that caused the
crash.
Shortly before the plane stopped communicating, the pilot had
requested permission
to increase altitude because of weather, a marked difference from the
Malaysia Airlines flight, where the last contact didn’t indicate that
anything was amiss.
So far, the circumstances look much similar to those
of a flight that
crashed over the summer,
when bad weather forced a pilot to request changes to the flight plan,
but the plane still went down; even a talented pilot can’t necessarily
beat out the elements.
What would be the best way to ensure that
all planes, no matter which carrier they flew under, could be located in
the wake of disasters?
One option is to require them to carry emergency
transmitters, which is
already the case
in the United States.
As a failsafe, carriers could be required to keep
ADS-B and ACARS active at all times; the data they collect can be
processed on board to transmit only the most essential information,
thereby limiting the amount of bandwidth it takes up.
A better satellite
network, like the one already in place to provide
Internet
and phone connectivity on select flights, could also effectively
reverse-engineered to find flights, using tools like phone GPS to
determine where a plane was last spotted, so to speak.
Likewise, global
adoption of Next Gen could play a key role in offering realtime data
about flight paths that could help pinpoint planes in trouble.
Finding the remains of downed airplanes is important for determining what went wrong.
Air travel still remains, statistically,
the safest mode of travel,
but any plane crash is a crash too many.
Even in the case of airlines
and jets with excellent safety records, as was the case here, it’s
important to be asking sharp questions about airliner safety, and
airlines must cooperate with regulatory authorities to develop effective
monitoring technology.
Hand in hand with updates to the tracking
systems we use for planes over the ocean, it’s important to also be
pushing for better routine fleet maintenance, stricter standards for
aircraft inspection and retirement, tighter regulations on working hours
for pilots and crew, and other measures that will improve safety.
Perhaps AirAsia QZ8501 was fated to fall out of the sky.
Maybe it was pilot error,
like poor judgment in the advance of an oncoming storm.
Weather satellite image of the area,
an hour after #QZ8501 went missing over Java Sea.
Or maybe
something went terribly wrong, and it could have been prevented.
With
growing numbers of passengers lining up for budget airlines, it’s
important to find out if corners are being cut to bring costs down.
We may never know what happened to the Malaysia and AirAsia planes, and if that's the case, we need to ask ourselves why.
Links :
- NYtimes : Where AirAsia Flight 8501 was lost and debris found
- Bloomberg : Why we still can't track an airplane
- 9News : Eighty years after Amelia Earhart went missing, how can we still be losing planes?
- RedOrbit : Does missing AirAsia plane highlight need for improved tracking technology?
- Skift : AirAsia black box search renews debate on better airplane tracking
- BBC : How do you track a plane?