Inside Earth’s most remote island: ‘Almost untouched by humans’

Tristan da Cunha sits thousands of kilometers from anywhere.
Inside the tiny community that shares every job, lives with penguins and whales, and rarely sees visitors

Tristan da Cunha, the world’s most remote inhabited island.

Getty Images

From Surfer by Dashel Pierson

Tristan da Cunha is considered the world’s most remote inhabited island.
National Geographic: Tristan da Cunha is 2,700 km from South Africa, 3,700 km from South America.
Isolation shapes daily life; residents share tasks due to limited population and resources.

Looking at a map, just about halfway between the vast South Atlantic Ocean between the African and South American continents, there lies a remote, lonely island.

Actually, there’s a couple.
They’re part of a British overseas territory, but only one of them is inhabited by a small group of people, Tristan da Cunha, and for a long time it’s been dubbed the world’s most remote inhabited island.
They even have a sign.

However, below, this video explores perhaps another contender for the random title of remoteness – the Pitcairn Islands in the South Pacific.

So, which is it?

While the armchair geographer above posits that the Pitcairn Islands are the world’s most remote, many in the greater geography world still give Tristan da Cunha the title.


According to National Geographic:

“Tristan da Cunha, the most remote inhabited island in the world, is over 2,700 kilometers from South Africa and 3,700 kilometers from the nearest shores of South America.
Sitting between the South Atlantic Current to the north and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to the south, the volcanic island and its archipelago are a hotspot of endemic biodiversity both on land and at sea.

“Among the wildlife found here are seven-gill sharks, blue sharks, shortfin mako sharks, southern right whales, fin whales, humpback whales, sperm whales, dolphins, elephant seals, and albatrosses, as well as 200,000 rockhopper penguins, more than five million shearwaters, and 300,000 sub-Antarctic fur seals.” 

In addition to the small human community, Tristan da Cunha is also home to roughly 90% of the world’s endangered Norther Rockhopper penguin population.
This species, most likely, were the inspiration for the penguins in the animate movie, Surf’s Up.

See the uncanny resemblance below. 

Rockhopper penguin (Eudyptes chrysocome moseleyi) Gough Island, South Atlantic, Islands in the southern oceans
Getty Images

So, what’s life like on the world’s most remote uninhabited island? 

 

Per NPR:

“Extreme isolation has shaped every part of life on Tristan.
With no airport and only a handful of ships visiting every year, residents say they rely largely on themselves — and each other — to keep life on the island running.

“With so few residents, there are simply too few people for all the jobs that need doing.
When someone is off island or unwell, others have to fill in, whether that means covering shifts, running errands or slaughtering a cow.
The limited labor pool means skills are shared and tasks are stretched across families, making daily life a constant balancing act.”

If you ever need to disappear, and start over in life, now you know where to go.

 

Links :

• GeoGarage blog : Extremities of the Earth: The most remote inhabited island / Vendee Globe : Tristan de Cunha passage /  New Atlantic marine sanctuary will be one of world's largest

A trio of tropical cyclones in the Pacific

IMAGE OF THE DAY FOR SEPTEMBER 4, 2026

From NASA Earth Observatory

The Pacific was buzzing with storms while the Atlantic was notably quiet.

When hurricane forecasters released their seasonal outlooks in spring 2026, the El Niñobrewing in the Pacific contributed to predictions of below-normal activity in the Atlantic basinbut above-normal activity in the northeastern and central Pacific basins.
In early September, near the climatological peak of hurricane season, those spring outlooks were on target, with the eastern Pacific buzzing with activity and the Atlantic notably quiet.

As of September 3, the Northeast Pacific had produced 15 named storms and six hurricanes, well above the norm for that point in the season.
The Atlantic basin, meanwhile, laboring under unfavorable wind shear conditions, had produced just five named storms and no hurricanes.
El Niño typically enhances hurricane activity in the eastern and central Pacific basins because of the unusually warm water temperatures it brings to those parts of the ocean.
It tends to suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin by shifting large-scale circulation patterns in a way that makes it harder to sustain storms there.

At 1:14 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (20:14 Universal Time) on September 1, NASA’s EPIC (Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera) on the DSCOVR (Deep Space Climate Observatory) satellite captured an image of three tropical cyclones churning simultaneously in the Pacific, along with one in the Atlantic.
A band of clouds and thunderstorms associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is visible to the south of the storms.
The spacecraft was nearly 1 million miles from Earth and just shy of 93 million miles from the Sun when the image was acquired.

 

 Visualization with NavimetriX

 

The trio of storms in the Pacific were Lowell, Karina, and Marie.
Of the three, Lowell became the strongest, with winds reaching category 5 strength for several hours on September 2.
Around the same time, Karina, spinning a few thousand kilometers to the east, achieved category 4 strength, a rare case of category 4 and 5 hurricanes occurring simultaneously in the area.
Marie, spinning southwest of Baja California, was still a tropical storm when the image was acquired but was strengthening as it moved northwest.

In the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Edouard was visible to EPIC over Louisiana and Texas, shortly after the short-lived storm made landfall.
It brought torrential rains and strong winds that downed trees and power lines.
Some areas received 15 to 24 inches (38 to 61 centimeters) of rain, according to National Weather Service meteorologists.

As of September 3, the Atlantic basin's total accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index was 4.4, about 9 percent of normal for that date, according to statistics compiled by Colorado State University meteorologists.
Meanwhile, the Northeast Pacific basin's ACE was 130, about 50 percent above normal.
The ACE index incorporates both the intensity and longevity of storms, making it easier to compare individual storms and seasons.

Several NASA Earth-observing platforms provide data that can aid in emergency preparedness before landfall and damage assessment and response afterward.
Use the “Events” tab on NASA's Worldview browser to track current hurricanes and explore related NASA data products.

Autonomous sonar survey locates wreckage of Pan Am flight that prompted airline safety reforms

Autonomous sonar survey locates wreckage of Pan Am flight that prompted airline safety reforms

Part of the plane’s logo is still visible. 

Air/Sea Heritage Foundation and Deep Sea Vision

 

From Hydro

 

Nearly 75 years after it crashed, the wreckage of a Pan American Airways aircraft has been located and surveyed nearly 2,000 feet (610m) below the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Puerto Rico.

A Kongsberg HUGIN autonomous underwater vehicle, equipped with advanced sonar, detected the aircraft's fuselage and tail during the first pass of the search area, with a follow-up photographic survey later confirming the identification.

The expedition was led by the Air/Sea Heritage Foundation and Deep Sea Vision, a subsidiary of Eco Minerals Inc., in partnership with the Discovery Channel's Expedition Unknownand several other organizations.

The Clipper Endeavor, a Pan Am DC-4, went down on 11 April 1952 following multiple-engine failure shortly after takeoff, forcing the pilot into a violent water landing.

The aircraft was carrying 64 passengers and five crew bound for New York.

Everyone survived the initial impact, but as the plane rapidly sank, passengers struggled to locate life vests and rafts.

Of the 69 people on board, only 17 survived.

The confusion that followed became a catalyst for new regulations requiring better flotation equipment on aircraft and pre-flight briefings on how to use it.

 

Map drawn by air force pilots

The breakthrough came after researchers uncovered records from a public hearing in Puerto Rico, including a map drawn by air force pilots who had witnessed the crash.

Combined with historical weather data from the time, this narrowed the search area to roughly 10 square nautical miles of seabed.

An earlier attempt to locate the wreckage in 2024 was abandoned due to poor weather, but the team was determined to return before the crash's 75th anniversary.

The wreckage, found broken into two sections, was located during the search area's first pass on 2 June. The subsequent photographic survey revealed that the Pan Am logo and the aircraft's name were still visible on the fuselage, providing remarkably intact confirmation of the find.

"We are all stunned and elated by this discovery, yet also humbled to remember what happened in that place so long ago," said Russ Matthews, president of the Air/Sea Heritage Foundation.

Imagery of the Clipper Endeavour wreckage, discovered more than seven decades after the aircraft disappeared. (Image courtesy: Air/Sea Heritage Foundation and Deep Sea Vision)

 

Links :

• BBC : Wreckage of Pan Am plane that shaped aviation safety found 74 years on
• Smithsonian : This 1950s Airplane Disaster Prompted the Flight Safety Demonstrations Passengers Know Today. Searchers Just Found the Wreckage in the Atlantic Ocean
• The Guardian : The 74-year mystery of Flight 526A – and six other unsolved air disasters 
• YouTube : Pan Am Plane Lost for 74 Years Found on Atlantic Ocean Floor

America’s lack of shipbuilding prowess is a problem for its navy

 

All hands on deck

photograph: getty images

 

From The Economist 

China’s commercial shipyards provide it with a big advantage

“The floating bulwark of our island” is how William Blackstone, an 18th-century British politician, described the Royal Navy.
These days it is America, not Britannia, that rules the waves.
Yet the country’s naval dominance is increasingly under threat, as China has built a floating bulwark of its own.

China’s efforts to control what it regards as its territorial waters (despite the objections of its neighbours) and project power globally have demanded a fast-expanding navy.
This has grown in short order from a small coastal-defence force to become the largest navy in the world, according to a report in 2020 by what was at the time America’s Department of Defence.
China’s 350 “battle force” vessels—including battleships, aircraft carriers, minesweepers and auxiliary craft—outnumbered America’s 293, a figure that had barely increased in two decades.

China’s plans to expand its armada to 435 ships by 2030 seem plausible.
America’s hopes of adding 58 to its fleet by 2031—and the construction of a “Trump Class” nuclear-powered battleship, proposed by the president last year—are far-fetched.
That is because China has something America sorely lacks: its rise as a naval power has been underpinned by a vast commercial-shipbuilding industry.

After the second world war Europe’s world-leading shipyards were eclipsed first by Japan, using cheap steel and labour along with new manufacturing methods, then by South Korea.
More recently it is China that has come to dominate.
Over the past 25 years its share of global shipbuilding tonnage has risen from 5% to over 50%.
America’s commercial-shipbuilding industry, by contrast, barely registers, hampering the ability of its navy to keep pace.

Matthew Funaiole of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a think-tank in Washington, explains that China’s commercial-shipbuilding industry is “closely intertwined” with its navy.
The fusion of military and civilian activities keeps Chinese shipyards active.
If commercial orders slow, for example, dry docks can accommodate naval work, improving the return on investment.
And although warships are far more complex than, say, container ships, the two share much in common, from steel structures and pipework to engines and propellers.
The underlying “platform” across vessels has many commonalities, points out Marzio Forlini of Bain, a consultancy.

That is why Europe, which maintains a vibrant commercial industry for specialist vessels—such as cruise ships, icebreakers and support craft for offshore energy—still has a successful naval sector that not only supplies its own forces but exports around the world.
Civilian shipyards provide more than just capacity, notes Michael Potter of Accenture, another consultancy.
They are where the essential skills needed to incorporate weapons systems, radars and other bits of defence kit are honed.
Welding, pipe-fitting and cable-pulling a commercial vessel prepares labour forces to work on complex naval ships as well.
Pierroberto Folgiero, boss of Fincantieri, Europe’s biggest shipbuilder, agrees that the two industries are highly complementary, pointing to manufacturing skills, the availability of shipyards and overlapping supply chains.
Mr Folgiero notes that the cruise ships which are Fincantieri’s speciality are hugely complicated, requiring amenities such as power plants and water systems to support 10,000 people (and 20 restaurants).
The Italian argues that if governments want naval shipbuilding, “you have to cultivate—you have to protect—civilian shipbuilding”.

In America, however, past efforts to do so have backfired.
The Jones Act, a measure introduced in 1920 to propel the domestic shipbuilding industry, has instead acted as an anchor.
It obliges transport between domestic ports to be conducted on American-built vessels (with American crews).
The result has been insufficient competition and spiralling prices: vessels manufactured in America can cost many times a similar foreign-made one.
The Jones Act—which has been temporarily suspended to allow foreign tankers to help transport oil in a bid to lower petrol prices in America—is a big part of the reason why in 2025 the country accounted for only 0.03% of global tonnage.
America’s lack of commercial-shipbuilding prowess has proved costly for its navy, whose shipyards have been unable to deliver vessels on time and on budget.
Two aircraft carriers under construction by a subsidiary of Huntington Ingalls Industries, the country’s biggest military shipbuilder, were scheduled for delivery by March 2028 but will now be over two years late.
Four-fifths of all programmes to deliver frigates, submarines and other naval vessels are behind schedule.

Politicians are aware of the problem.
The bipartisan ships for America Act proposed in 2025 aims to increase the civil fleet by 250 vessels over ten years, using subsidies and various other measures.
In February the government launched the Maritime Action Plan, which includes the creation of a $20bn fund for investments in shipbuilding.
It has also rolled out an initiative (creatively titled “Make American Shipbuilding Great Again”) to attract skills and investment from South Korea.
That effort shows some promise: last month South Korea’s three biggest shipbuilders announced 15 co-operative projects to upgrade or build new shipyards in America.
Some lawmakers have even proposed changing America’s procurement rules to allow naval vessels to be constructed by allies such as Japan or South Korea.
Most observers, however, agree there is no short-term fix to the problem.
Indeed, many are sceptical that America’s commercial-shipbuilding sector will ever again provide much support to its navy.
That ship may have sailed.

 

Links :

• CATO Institute : Washington’s Misplaced Shipbuilding Obsession
• The Atlantic : How America lost control of the Seas  
• NYTimes : America can't make what the military needs 
• The Economist : Only Asia can help America counter China’s shipbuilding prowess 

Fishers detonate a bomb every hour on one Indonesian coral reef

A bomb-fished coral reef in Sulawesi, Indonesia
The Ocean Agency

From NewScientist by James Woodford 

 

Within just a 17-kilometre radius in one Indonesian archipelago, there is an explosion almost every hour as locals practise “bomb fishing”, destroying coral reefs and decimating marine life.

Over 483 days between May 2023 and September 2024, Ben Williams at University College London and his colleagues deployed an acoustic monitoring system at Spermonde Archipelago, south-west of Sulawesi, Indonesia.

As well as being a global coral reef biodiversity hotspot, it is a location where fishers detonate explosives underwater, stunning and killing fish that can then be easily harvested.

“The sound of bomb fishing is so loud that if you’re on a dive it can shake you out of your skin,” says Williams. “You feel it more than you hear it. But if you put your head up on the surface, you likely won’t even see the boat responsible because the sound of bomb fishing travels such a huge distance underwater.”

Study area. (A) Study area within the Spermonde Archipelago, the inset indicates the location of Spermonde within Indonesia.

Shaded ocean areas represent shallow reef habitat.

The primary recording site is shown as a black dot and grey dots represent three additional recorders deployed during the localisation field test to determine the detection radius (Section 2, Figure S2). 

The dashed circle and labelled radius represent the maximum estimated area over which blasts can be detected by the recorder during the localisation experiment. 

(B) An unimpacted coral reef flat within Spermonde, located within 500 m from the primary recording site. 

(C) A coral reef flat degraded to a rubble field by extensive bomb fishing, located within 1 km of (B).

The recording equipment sat at a depth of 17 metres and was able to detect explosions inside a radius of almost 17 kilometres.

The team used AI to analyse their 3650 hours of raw audio.

They recorded 3567 explosions, or just over 23 per day while the device was underwater.

“We have shown the true extent of this practice in a known hotspot for the first time ever, which we hope will drive action to curb this destruction,” says Williams.

One of the biggest issues is that there is an illegal supply chain underpinning the bomb fishing, usually involving the sourcing of fertilisers and fuses or detonators, he says.

“In other regions these may be stolen mining explosives or even military explosives.”

Once the fishers have the explosives, enforcement at sea is sparse. “It’s like Whac-A-Mole targeting the bomb fishers.

The best approaches should tackle the illegal supply chain that gets the materials needed to make explosives to bomb fishers or sellers of these,” says Williams.

Bomb fishing is a problem across the tropics, and part of the solution is retraining locals in sustainable tourism and reef restoration, he says. “It’s been documented in 34 countries, from South America to the Mediterranean to the East Coast of Africa and South-East Asia.”

Rinaldi Gotama, who wasn’t part of the work, is currently studying at the University of Queensland, Australia, and has worked extensively with Indonesian non-governmental organisations in reefs targeted by bomb fishing.

He says he wasn’t surprised at the scale of the problem.
“I expected the frequency to be high, but studies regarding bomb fishing are relatively scarce because it is notoriously difficult to quantify,” Gotama says.

He says the new method employed by the researchers might help combat the practice. 

“If this acoustic method could be replicated elsewhere, it could help with detecting and quantifying blast fishing and help identify hotspots of activity,” says Gotama.
“That could be valuable not only for ecological monitoring, but also for targeting enforcement and evaluating whether management interventions are actually reducing blast fishing.”

Links :

• Remote Sensing in Ecology and Conservation DOI: 10.1002/rse2.70093
• Yale Environment : Bomb Fishing Is Wreaking Havoc on Indonesia’s Coral Reefs 
• Phys : AI exposes devastating impact of bomb fishing on coral reefs 

We’ll soon get a glimpse of future temperatures, thanks to this record El Niño

(Ben Noll/The Washington Post; Zeke Hausfather)

From WashingtonPost by y Ben Noll

 

It will act like a climate time machine, temporarily pushing temperatures to levels that otherwise might not be felt for a decade or so. 

 
This year’s record-smashing El Niño will do more than just shift and enhance patterns of heat, extreme rainfall and drought around the world.
It will also give the planet a preview of the late 2030s.

That’s because this El Niño will act like a climate time machine, temporarily pushing global temperatures to levels that might nototherwise be reached for another decade or so.

According to an analysis by climate scientist Zeke Hausfather that was shared with The Washington Post, there’s around a 95 percent chance that 2027 will become Earth’s hottest year on record — soaring past the last record in 2024 — because the combination of El Niño and climate change could spike global temperatures to around 1.76 degrees Celsius (3.17 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial averages.


Described as “stunning” by Hausfather, who researches and analyzes the climate for Stripe, Carbon Brief and Berkeley Earth, this value would be so far above the warming trend of the past decade that it could bring global temperatures to levels not otherwise expected under that trend until around 2037.
“I’m not sure folks have realized just how crazy the second half of 2026 and 2027 will be for global temperatures — on the back of a record-smashing El Niño event,” wrote Hausfather on X.

Next year is strongly favored to become the planet’s warmest on record

It’s currently close to a coin flip whether 2026 would become the warmest year on record, according to Hausfather’s analysis, which considers the average of several different temperature datasets. It’s possible that 2026 sets a record in some, but not all, of these datasets.
Jim Hansen, director of the Program on Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions at Columbia University, said he expects 2026 to become the warmest year, but to hold that crown only until 2027 exceeds it.

There is a much stronger signal for record warmth in 2027 because increasing air temperatures caused by El Niño lag slightly behind increasing ocean temperatures.
A global temperature of 1.76 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels in 2027 would be about 0.29 degrees Celsius higher than what’s expected based on the warming trend of the past decade.
According to Hausfather’s temperature predictions for next year, the middle 50 percent of forecasts range from 1.67 degrees Celsius to 1.85 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average.
At the high end of that range, global temperatures in 2027 would jump roughly 13 years ahead of the recent warming trend, reaching levels that might otherwise become typical around 2040. The low end would represent a 7-year-boost, to around 2034.
Hausfather said that this El Niño event is happening on top of a “strong acceleration in the rate of warming associated with continued emissions of greenhouse gases.”

Both Hausfather and Hansen also mentioned that decreasing atmospheric aerosols — which have historically offset some warming — are contributing to the acceleration in warming.
Although Hausfather expects 2028 to be cooler than 2027, he added that “human emissions are adding a permanent El Niño worth of heat to the climate system each decade.”

In other words, global temperatures in 2027 will take a big but temporary upward stairstep, and they are unlikely to permanently continue at or above those levels for now.
These temperature increases will also have consequences for atmospheric water vapor. Because the water vapor-carrying capacity of air increases at a rate of 7 percent per degree Celsius, it’s possible — if not likely — that 2027 also sets a new global moisture record, surpassing 2024. In 2025, The Post mapped the planet’s rising moisture zones and showed how they are closely connected to an increasing risk for rainfall extremes.

The role of El Niño

 

This year’s El Niño is predicted to peak in December, but its impacts will continue long into 2027. (Ben Noll/The Washington Post/ECMWF)

During El Niño, huge stores of ocean heat from the western Pacific spread eastward, eventually reaching the west coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity shifts with that warmth, transferring heat from the ocean and pumping it high into the atmosphere. Winds and atmospheric circulation then redistribute that heat beyond the tropical Pacific and around the globe, raising global temperatures.
That’s why strong El Niño events often appear as an upward stairstep in long-term plots of global temperatures.

 

Ocean temperatures compared with average during the six strongest El Niño events on record before 2026. (Ben Noll/The Washington Post/NOAA)

 

But this El Niño isn’t just going to be strong. Boosted by the planet’s long-term warming trend, it’s probably going to dwarf the six strongest that came before it in 2015, 1997, 1982, 1972, 1888 and 1877 — the latter contributing to a global famine that caused 3 to 4 percent of the global population to perish.
Ocean temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific, where El Niño’s strength is measured, have already broken records for 75 days straight.

That streak isn’t expected to end anytime soon.
Temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean may surge more than 4.0 degrees Celsius above average (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) by December, breaking the previous record by more than a degree Celsius.

The Post is tracking these records on a regular basis — and mapping the potentially significant weather ripple effects — in an El Niño tracker.
Those weather effects will vary from place to place.
But the temperature spike will briefly push the entire planet into its warmer future.
About this story
Historical global temperature anomalies from Zeke Hausfather are based on an average of six datasets, sourced from NOAA, NASA, the UK Met Office, Berkeley Earth, ECMWF and the Japanese Meteorological Agency. The chance for a record in 2026 varies depending on which dataset is used.

Sea surface temperature forecasts for this year’s El Niño, from ECMWF, were compared with averages from 1993 to 2016 to calculate temperature anomalies. Sea surface temperatures during historical El Niño events were visualized using data from the NOAA-CIRES Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project and compared with averages from 1993 to 2015 to calculate temperature anomalies. Although several of these events occurred in the distant past before the satellite era, their patterns have been reconstructed from historical records, such as ship logs, to provide an estimate of the likely conditions.

 

Links :

• GeoGarage blog : What is el Niño, and what does it mean for weather, water, and the global economy? 

Rock strike caused near-fatal grounding of tourist vessel in New Zealand

Evacuation of passengers from the Black Cat

(Credit: TVNZ via RNZ taken by a witness)

From The Maritime Executive

The near-fatal grounding and loss of a tourist catamaran in New Zealand waters early this year was caused by the vessel coming into contact with a known hazard after the master approached it from an “unusual direction.” 

That was the finding detailed in an interim report from New Zealand’s transportation authority.

The Transport Accident Investigation Commission (TAIC) released its interim report detailing the grounding and subsequent total loss of the Black Cat catamaran on the morning of January 31, 2026.
The report shows the vessel was breached after coming into contact with the Archway Rock, a documented submerged rock.
Investigations so far indicate the master had approached the known hazard from an unusual direction.

Built in 1994, the Black Cat was a 17-meter catamaran owned by Black Cat Cruises and operated out of Akaroa, offering sightseeing tours from the South Island.
On the fateful day, the vessel was conducting a regular two-hour wildlife and scenic cruise with 38 passengers and three crewmembers aboard.
The vessel departed her berth at Akaroa Harbor at 1045 and visited various locations.
The weather was calm, prompting the master to decide to navigate outside Akaroa Harbor and visit Scenery Nook on the south coast, where they arrived around 1152.

 

 

Black Cat’s track from Scenery Nook to the beach at Nikau Palm Gully

(from the report) 

 

Visualization with the GeoGarage platform (Linz nautical raster chart NZ6364)

 

Localization with the NZ ENC (NZ406324)

The vessel approached Archway Rock from an "unusual direction".
It struck an underwater rock of unknown depth that was marked on navigational charts as a dangerous hazard

The report shows that upon approaching Scenery Nook, the master moved to the starboard bridge wing helm station to maneuver the vessel close to known rocks.
He then decided to visit Archway Rock on the way back to Akaroa.
At about 1207, the Black Cat left Scenery Nook, and the master moved back to the central bridge helm station so they could look at the chart plotter regarding their intended route.
The master then moved to the port bridge wing helm station and navigated toward Archway Rock.

About this time, one of the crewmembers noticed the vessel was approaching Archway Rock from an unusual direction.
Minutes later, the vessel struck the rock, causing a rupture to its hull and flooding, including in the engine.
The crew failed to activate the bilge pumping system because they were not confident in how to operate the system correctly.

Unable to pump the water, the master navigated the vessel into Akaroa Harbor to facilitate a safe evacuation.
The report shows that while in the harbor, the vessel’s steering and starboard engine had stopped operating and the emergency steering was not responding.
The vessel had developed a significant starboard list.

 

image : TAIC

Nearby vessels helped in evacuating the passengers while a Coastguard vessel that was exercising just outside Akaroa Harbor attempted to dewater the Black Cat using a portable petrol-powered water pump.
The efforts were unsuccessful, and the master tried to save the vessel by attempting to maneuver her towards the beach when it ran aground.
A salvage operation the following day failed to refloat and recover the vessel, which broke up in heavy weather conditions.

TAIC highlights that while the interim report presents facts that have been established so far, it intends to publish its final report on the incident upon completion of the investigations.
The final report will present analysis, discuss safety issues, and make recommendations.

 

Links :

• TAIC : Interim report - grounding of Black Cat in January 2026 / Passenger vessel, Black Cat Grounding Entrance to Akaroa Harbour, New Zealand 31 January 2026 / TAIC investigating the grounding of tourist ferry Black Cat in Akaroa
• RNZ : Black Cat crew 'not confident' to operate pump, as tourist boat floods
• ThePress : Black Cat cruise hit known hazard after travelling in ‘unusual’ direction, investigators find 
• Boating NZ : Update on Black Cat Cruises vessel incident, Akaroa Harbour
• Chris Lynch newsroom: Report: Black Cat struck known underwater hazard after approaching from ‘unusual’ direction
• DCN : Black Cat grounding detailed by TAIC 

Global shipping traffic density

It’s hard to imagine the number of ships traversing the oceanic highways every day, but this visualisation submitted to #CopernicusMarine‘s 2025 #DataViz challenge, is a mesmerising depiction of the major shipping routes used between 2015 and 2020.

Created by Julian Hoffman… pic.twitter.com/BQraXB4gHB

— Copernicus Marine (@CMEMS_EU) August 24, 2026

Image of the week : icy window

One of the most unusual images was captured from beneath the sea ice north of Svalbard, Norway.
Photographer Audun Rikardsen had spotted polar bear tracks close to a seal breathing hole. He drilled another hole nearby and placed a camera beneath the ice, attaching a motion sensor.
Around eight hours later, a polar bear arrived and looked down through the opening, producing the striking image titled Icy Window.
Seals use gaps in the sea ice to surface for air, but the same openings can also provide opportunities for polar bears hunting for prey.

source : Scubaverse 

The promise and the pitfalls of China’s new Arctic shipping route

illustration: the economist / getty images

From The Economist 

The Northern Sea Route is a pricey and risky alternative to the Suez Canal

For a world newly preoccupied with maritime choke points, the voyage of the Dubai Tower offers a flicker of promise.
The container ship set off from the Chinese port of Ningbo on August 15th to begin the first regular cargo service between Asia and Europe via the Arctic Ocean.
Sea Legend, the vessel’s Chinese owner, says that it will complete the 5,000km journey to Felixstowe, on Britain’s east coast, in about 20 days.
That is roughly twice as fast as sailing the usual route via the Suez Canal.
Crucially, the “Arctic Express” (as the company calls the service) avoids the risk of being entangled in the Middle East’s military conflicts.

 

map: the economist

For a world newly preoccupied with maritime choke points, the voyage of the Dubai Tower offers a flicker of promise.
The container ship set off from the Chinese port of Ningbo on August 15th to begin the first regular cargo service between Asia and Europe via the Arctic Ocean.
Sea Legend, the vessel’s Chinese owner, says that it will complete the 5,000km journey to Felixstowe, on Britain’s east coast, in about 20 days.
That is roughly twice as fast as sailing the usual route via the Suez Canal.
Crucially, the “Arctic Express” (as the company calls the service) avoids the risk of being entangled in the Middle East’s military conflicts.map: the economist
The new service via the so-called Northern Sea Route (nsr), which runs through the Bering Strait and over the top of Russia, is an early test of China’s Arctic ambitions.
In 2018 the country outlined plans to develop shipping routes, mining and infrastructure in the Arctic, hoping to take advantage of rapidly receding polar ice.
Many of the plans, which are marketed collectively as a “polar silk road”, have met resistance.
Seven of the eight countries with Arctic territory are Western democracies.
They worry that China is working closely with Russia in the region and that Chinese activities there could be useful for future military purposes, such as operating submarines.
Some bridled at China, whose northernmost point is on about the same latitude as Hamburg, declaring itself a “near-Arctic state”.
Nonetheless China hopes to attract fresh interest in the northern route from governments and companies alarmed by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the threat from Iranian-backed Houthi fighters to shipping in the Red Sea.
China is also more anxious than ever about its own reliance on the narrow Malacca Strait, the hinge between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific, through which most of its energy imports pass.
And China will soon not be alone on the nsr.
In June Japan said that it would revise its Arctic policy to promote the route.
A South Korean shipping company, PanStar, plans to send one of its container ships on a trial run through the Arctic Ocean on August 22nd, aiming to complete the voyage from Busan to Felixstowe in just 18 days.
It’s no sleigh ride
Thanks to climate change, conditions for the nsr are likely to grow more favourable.
The minimum summer extent of Arctic ice has been shrinking by more than 12% a decade.
In March the maximum extent of winter ice reached its lowest level since records began in 1979.
On August 16th, the latest available reading, Arctic ice covered 5.5m square kilometres.
That is well below the median extent of ice on the same date in the years between 1981 and 2010 but above the lowest ever extent, recorded in 2012.
That September, the ice shrank to just 3.4m square kilometres.
One selling point for Sea Legend’s service is that a shorter sailing time means less fuel burned—fuel accounts for seven-tenths of shipping costs.
That also reduces carbon emissions.
And cooler weather on the Northern Sea Route is better for transporting some high-tech goods that are sensitive to temperature.
Without refrigeration, temperatures inside containers on the Suez Canal route can reach 60°C.
The Dubai Tower is carrying goods including batteries, solar modules and electric-vehicle components, mainly from cities in China’s Yangzi river delta.
For all those apparent advantages, the Arctic Express also highlights the limitations of the nsr.
It will run only from August to October, when the route is largely free of ice.
Sea Legend plans eight voyages in that window, using seven vessels.
For the rest of the year, only ships with reinforced hulls may navigate the Arctic.
Sea Legend has bought or leased some of these, but only relatively small ones, as they are costly and in short supply.
They may also need to be escorted by Russian nuclear-powered icebreakers.
All the extra costs erode the northern route’s price advantage.
So do insurance premiums.
They are usually higher for the nsr than for the Suez Canal, despite war-risk premiums for the canal.
They are also 40% higher than for sailing around the Cape of Good Hope, the chief alternative to the Suez Canal.
Allianz, an insurance giant, warned in its recent annual safety review of the shipping industry that the remote Arctic route posed significant extra risks because of its harsh weather and the limited infrastructure available for repairs, assistance, rescue or salvage.
It said that machinery damage or failure caused almost half of the reported shipping incidents in Arctic waters in the past decade.
The environmental impact is potentially greater, too.
Bellona, a Norwegian environmental group, warned in a report last year that in the Arctic there are no effective ways to deal with fuel spills because of the difficulty of cleaning up fuel in cold conditions and the distance from emergency-response centres.
(The International Maritime Organisation has banned the use and carriage of heavy fuel oil in the Arctic since 2024, though Russia does not heed the ban.) Noise pollution from ships also affects marine mammals such as whales and walruses in the Arctic more than elsewhere, since low-frequency sounds travel farther in cold water.
Ships on the northern route pass through vital feeding and breeding grounds.
International carriers avoid the route in large part because of geopolitical risk.
Ships on the nsr often need permits, ice-breaking services or other assistance from Russia, potentially violating Western sanctions linked to its war in Ukraine.
Shipping may in future be disrupted by an intensifying contest between Russia and other countries to control the region’s ample mineral resources.
The Arctic, once preserved as a zone of peace, is becoming increasingly militarised, as Donald Trump continues to threaten Greenland and nato seeks to deter Russian aggression on its northern flank.
All this helps to explain why total transit cargo on the Northern Sea Route was just 3.2m tonnes in 2025, up from about 3m the year before.
That is tiny compared with about 464m tonnes through the Suez Canal last year.
The bulk of Arctic shipping is between Russian and Chinese ports, rather than between Asia and Europe, much of it consisting of shipments of Russian oil or gas.
In a recent report, the Clingendael Institute, a Dutch think-tank, concluded that the route’s “most viable function…remains that of a selective corridor for Arctic resource exports.”
Still, as Malte Humpert of the Arctic Institute in Washington argues, the nsr will grow in importance for China as a seasonal trade corridor for when traditional routes are disrupted.
He envisages hundreds of annual container passages a decade hence.
“The question is when Western operators decide to re-enter the market—and more importantly, whether they still can,” Mr Humpert says.
Arctic navigation requires training and operational experience, and “China and South Korea are building that expertise now.”
For the moment, Sea Legend admits, the tight seasonal window and limited capacity of its Arctic service make it hard to compete with conventional routes.
But it is already planning to expand the navigational window to four months by 2028 and eventually to the entire year.
Further conflict in the Middle East could provide incentives for it and other companies to invest in larger, ice-strengthened ships.
And if temperatures in the Arctic continue to rise three times faster than the global annual average, then doubts about the viability of the nsr may recede as fast as China’s ambitions for the region grow.

 

Links :

• The Conversation :  China Opens New Arctic Trade Route–But Obstacles Will Prevent Its Wider Use 

The ocean just broke a temperature record that may have stood for millennia

 

From WP by Ben Noll

Marine heat waves currently cover 42 percent of the planet’s oceans.

As a record-breaking El Niño builds in the Pacific and large swaths of the globe’s oceans are affected by marine heat waves, a significant record has fallen.

According to data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service, average global sea surface temperatures have reached a new high, rising to nearly 70 degrees Fahrenheit late last week — potentially for the first time in millennia.

 

This mark surpassed the previous record set in March 2024.

“August 21st likely marked the warmest Sea Surface Temperatures have been for the entire Holocene period, and possibly even as far back as the last Interglacial 125,000 years ago,” wrote University of Ottawa professor Ryan Katz-Rosene on X.
Sea surface temperatures from thousands of years ago are reconstructed using marine sediment cores, which contain tiny fossils whose chemistry reflects the temperature of the water in which they formed.

These records indicate that global sea surface temperatures are now higher than at any time in at least 12,000 years and are probably reaching levels experienced during the last interglacial period, around 123,000 to 128,000 years ago.
The unusual ocean warmth has fueled powerful storms in the Pacific, such as Hurricane Lala near Hawaii, helped create a reservoir of extra moisture that has contributed to recent rainfall extremes across the United States and boosted summer heat across Europe.

About 42 percent of the planet's oceans are currently covered by marine heat wave conditions. Marine heat waves are marked by unusual and persistent ocean warmth compared to average. 

(Ben Noll/The Washington Post; NOAA)

According to NOAA data, 42 percent of the planet’s oceans are currently experiencing marine heat waves.

In the Pacific Ocean alone, marine heat waves cover an area that’s equivalent to nine times the size of the contiguous United States — greatly contributing to the new global sea surface temperature record. 

 

Links :

• BBC : World's oceans hit highest temperature on record as El Niño grows
• Copernicus: Daily global sea surface temperature breaks 2024 record
• The Guardian : World’s oceans hit hottest temperature on record in August 
• Scientific American : Earth’s oceans just hit their hottest temperature ever—it’s only going to get worse

eNav in a nutshell: paper charts versus electronic charts

Running aground is a risk if relying on digital chart data that isn’t accurate. 

Credit: SNSM/Alamy

 

From Practical Boat Owner by Craig Burton

There’s an accelerating shift away from paper charts, but how best to use predicted data from digital aids in real-world situations?

Craig Burton, head of training operations at the Royal Yachting Association (RYA) shares his advice.

Globally, digital navigation is the primary means of navigation for skippers and navigators.

This shift from paper charts has exposed limitations in official electronic navigation charts (ENCs) for leisure use because, while private providers have helped fill gaps, key issues remain around display systems, backup arrangements, training, and cost.

Paper charts remain the only viable official source of chart data, as there is not yet an approved electronic system suitable for most leisure craft.

Yet, in two recent RYA surveys, the vast majority of 4,000 respondents per survey stated that they used digital navigational equipment as their primary passage-making navigational tools.

Digital aids can take the hard work out of passage planning and monitoring, and enhance accuracy but it’s important to be confident that the primary sources of raw data is accurate.

Where in the world?

The green area on the electronic chart (left) matches the section labelled ‘j’ in the boxed area on the paper chart (above). 

Credit: RYA

This is equally true of our horizontal position.

Now we can accurately plot our position using satellites, the reliability of the electronic charts we are using becomes crucial.

We need to know how accurately placed a rock might be if we are navigating to a tolerance of metres rather that hundreds of yards.

In the paper-plotting world, we used pilotage at close quarters, in which case our position, relative to fixed objects and charted navigation marks, could be transferred to the chart with an accuracy that had more to do with the competence of the navigator than the skill of the hydrographer and his surveys.

When far offshore, dead reckoning (DR), astro and estimated positions (EPs) are used when considerable margins for error had to be factored in and the accuracy of charts was not generally an issue.

The arrival of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers suddenly threw the accuracy of charts, and the information they were based on, into sharp focus.

Augmented GNSS can now give positions accurate to less than 1m.

But what happens when you transfer that position onto a chart?

The first problem was that paper charts from different countries and hydrographic offices used slightly different models for the shape of the earth – horizontal datums.

The UK Hydrographic Office (UKHO) used its own datum, OSGB1936.

Internationally, one of the most popular was WGS84 and this was adopted as the standard for GPS navigation.

Positions arrived at by the two different systems could be different to a significant degree.

In the early days of GPS, corrections had to be applied to WGS84-derived positions to be able to plot them on OSGB36-based UKHO charts.

The difference was enough to worry conscientious navigators.

Today charts are published using a horizontal datum compatible with WGS84 positions.

Diagram showing the effect of onshore and offshore winds on sea level. Credit: RYA

Reliability of electronic charts

But what if the survey on which the paper chart, and the electronic chart derived from it, is inaccurate?

In the traditional world of pilotage this doesn’t generally matter.

In the digital world it really does, because you may know exactly where you are in the world but the cartographer may not have exactly identified where the land is.

In most well-travelled parts of the ocean, a combination of modern hydrographic and satellite surveys has developed charts accurate enough for all practical purposes, but it’s still good to know just how accurate the information is.

Data comparison

On a paper chart this information will be printed in a source data table like that in the illustration (opposite).

It indicates that part of the chart was drawn from a government survey dating from 1945 (marked ‘j’, in the red boxed area) which might be considered unreliable by modern standards.

The digital vector chart next to it has a note giving a zone of confidence of Grade C, meaning positional accuracy is within +/- 500m and depths up to 10m may be incorrect to +/- 2.5m.

Definitely unreliable!

ZOC on a UKHO nautical raster chart in the GeoGarage platform

Unfortunately, most commercially available digital charts for the leisure industry do not give a ‘quality of data’ measure.
 

CV24 grounding

Credit: Clipper Round the World

 

Gosong Mampango (also known as Discovery East Bank, Discovery Oostbank or Gosong Discovery Timur), reef in the Java Sea where CV24 grounded

Visualization with the GeoGarage platform (NGA nautical raster chart) 
 

An example of the risks of relying on such data is the grounding and loss of the Cork Clipper (CV24) in the Java Sea due to the charted position of a reef being 0.9 miles out.

The most accurate chart surveys (graded as A1) have a positional accuracy of +/- 5m and depth accuracy of +/- 0.6m, for charted depths up to 10m.

The next grade down (A2) has positional accuracy of +/- 20m and charted depths of +/- 1.2m for depths up to 10m.

Pilotage basics

 

Don’t ignore information from real-world data when navigating by electronic charts.

Credit: geogphotos/Alamy

By the third grade (B) of six we find positional accuracy as +/- 50m. It’s estimated the average accuracy of chart data is +/- 60m.

In this digital world there is still a need to make use of all pilotage and planning techniques.

The only difference is that most sailors will be using these to check the digital information.

When entering a small harbour, you’d be foolish not to use the buoyage, transits or sector lights provided.

Then, even if the electronic chart survey is out by 500m, you’ll be safe if you stay in the channel.

At close quarters, it’s your position relative to dangers or safe areas that’s important, not an electronically derived lat/long position.

This is essentially what pilotage is all about.

‘Digital First’ navigation means using electronics for more efficient passage planning and execution, but we must remember that the human is always in charge.

If the electronics are not providing what you need, switch to plan ‘B’ – which, at the moment, is still paper charts.

Predicted vs real tidal data study

In the pre-digital age, there were trusted sources of printed tidal information.

There’s a greater choice now, however it is worth checking the reliability of the source of data on digital tidal prediction apps and websites to compare predicted heights and rates of flow with actual data.

The best source for predictions in the UK is the UKHO, which is the national entity chosen to provide this information for the safety of shipping.

 

We compared predicted height for Southampton Water at 14:30 on easytide.admiralty.co.uk (3.8m) with the actual tidal height gauge reading (4.0m).

Other sites showed 4.0m, 3.9m and 3.8m.

You may think the source matching the actual height is best but repeat this exercise on different occasions and other sources will prove more accurate.

No matter how clever a tidal height prediction is there can still be a variance of 20-30cm due to changes in air pressure alone.

Adding the effect of wind direction and strength can affect tidal height by up to 0.9m (storm surges).

A good navigator will build in a margin of safety.

Paper reprise

• July 2022: UKHO announces its intention to cease production of Standard Nautical Charts and Thematic Charts by late 2026.
• February 2023: Following public outcry, the UKHO pledges to continue the service until 2030.
• November 2024: UK’s leading publisher for leisure sailors Imray, Laurie Norie & Wilson announces plans to cease publication of new paper charts in late 2025.
• April 2025: A U-turn on Imray’s decision is confirmed thanks to a merger with Austrian cartographic specialist freytag & berndt.
• February 2026: UKHO announces that it has developed a more efficient way to print nautical paper charts on demand, using electronic chart data.
• Future: Paper charts will continue as long as people are buying them.

Links :

• Practical Boat Owner : Sir Robin Knox-Johnston calls for review after CV24 grounding report
•  Pulse : Paper Charts Aren't Dying After All

 

NorthStandard examines ECDIS safety settings in new briefing

Above image is used for illustration purposes only

From Safety4Sea

Since their introduction, Electronic Chart Display and Information Systems (ECDIS) and Electronic Navigational Charts (ENCs) have rapidly become the primary means of navigation aboard many vessels.
NorthStandard has issued a briefing examining the safety settings available to ENC users.

As explained in the “ECDIS – Safety Settings,” briefing, ECDIS offers several advantages over traditional paper charts, one of the most important being its ability to alert navigators when a vessel may be approaching dangerous waters.
By using safety settings tailored to the vessel’s condition, ECDIS can provide valuable warnings and support safer navigation.

However, these settings must be properly understood, configured and used to ensure they deliver their full benefit.

Safety contour

This is the primary safety feature on the ECDIS.
It is set by the user and marks the boundary between safe water and shallow water.

How does it do this?

Before departing port, the ECDIS user must set a value for the safety contour.
This should take into account the vessel’s draught and required under-keel clearance.
The quality of the ENC data available must also be considered.
The safety contour shows on the ENC as an extra wide isoline.

Users should check their SMS for the procedure on setting the safety contour.
If it is not set, the ECDIS default value for the safety contour is 30m.

What happens when you get near a safety contour?

When the ECDIS is in monitoring mode (in use on passage), if the vessel’s watch / lookahead vector crosses a set safety contour the user will receive an audible alarm.

The safety contour is the only automatic audible alarm on ECDIS.
If the user wishes to have other features – such as wrecks or underwater obstructions – raise an audible alarm, then they must set this themselves when planning the passage as the normal ECDIS default for such objects is only to visually highlight these.
 

Availability of depth contours

The use of the safety contour can only be accurate if the ENC data within the ECDIS contains enough depth contours.
When ENCs were first introduced, most makers used their paper chart series as the source for their data.
Unfortunately, this led to some issues, and today many ENCs only contain the standard series of contour lines taken from the old paper chart.

As such, when building the chart display and a contour line is not available, the ECDIS software will draw the next available deeper depth contour in the ENC with a thick bold contour line and shade all areas of the chart between this depth and the zero-metre drying line in a dark blue shallow water colour.
 

Confidence in the data

When setting a value for the safety contour, not only should the user consider draught and the under-keel clearance requirements but also the accuracy of the ENC hydrographic data.
If the ENC in use for a certain leg of the passage shows a low ‘Category Zones of Confidence’ (CATZOC), then this should be accounted for when setting the safety contour.


Sometimes, due to the limited availability of contours in ENC data when navigating near the coast, the vessel will need to navigate inside the safety contour.
To improve situational awareness for the user, the latest S-52 standards gives the user the flexibility to turn on the isolated danger symbols to display behind the safety contour in potentially dangerous areas
 

Safety depth

As described earlier, because of the limited availability of contour lines (commonly to 2m, 5m, 10m, 20m 30m and 50m) this limits the effectiveness of the safety contour, the ECDIS user can set up safety depths independently of the safety contour.

The ECDIS will then display any sounding with a value equal to, or less than, the safety depth value in bold to make them more prominent.
Shallow and deep contours

Before discussing shallow and deep contours, the user must understand depth shades of an ECDIS:

Depth Shades

The user has the option of selecting a simple two-colour shading, or a more in-depth four-colour shading.
To enable the use of the four-colour option, the user can set what are called ‘shallow’ and ‘deep-water’ contours in addition to their set safety contour.

Two depth shades

This is the default setting and will only show two depth shades in addition to the inter-tidal area which is exposed at low water:

• Shallow / unsafe waters – Between 0 metres and the safety contour

• Deep / safer waters – Deeper than the safety contour 

Credit: NorthStandard

Four depth shades

If the two depth shades option is turned off, the system will switch to displaying four depth shades option using values that are set for the shallow and deep contour:

• User defined shallow contour
• User defined deep contour

 

Credit: NorthStandard

The use of four depth shades reduces the contrast difference between adjacent depth areas.
This may make it more difficult to distinguish between safe and unsafe waters under certain lighting conditions, particularly at night where its use is not recommended.
 

Shallow contour

The shallow contour value is set by the user and is used to determine all areas shallower than this value.
The below first image shows an ECDIS with the shallow contour switched off, and the second with the shallow contour on, illustrating the difference in colours:
 

Deep contour

This indicates the limit of the sea area where ‘shallow water effects’ can affect the vessel.
It shows the user what the passage plan thinks is deep water.
This could be, for example, twice the deepest draft, or 100m in open sea passages.
You should consult your SMS for details.

When ‘four shades’ mode is activated, the display will show shallow and deep contour as two additional blue-coloured patterns on the chart panel.
While activating the shallow pattern will cross out non-navigable, unsafe water, this can lead to a cluttered screen.
 

Route check function

When the user has completed planning the intended passage, it is possible to check that the route is safe by using the ECDIS route check function.
This checks that the planned route is safe, based on the vessel’s characteristics, and importantly it is free from any charted dangers based on the entered safety settings.

Therefore, the user must ensure that the appropriate safety contour and depth settings are entered before starting this check.
 

Lookahead function

The ‘lookahead’ or ‘watch’ vector is selected by the user and is expressed either as a distance or a time.
Remember that if the watch vector crosses the safety contour it will raise an audible alarm, so it is very important that the user has an appropriate watch vector set at all times.

The setting of the watch vector may need to change throughout the passage.
For example, if the vessel is in open water, then a longer / larger watch vector may be more appropriate.
However, in confined waters this could mean frequent needless alarms, therefore you may wish to set a shorter / smaller watch vector.

 

Links :

• DigitalShip : Mapsea puts 150 billion trajectory records behind AI-powered S-100 ECDIS push
• GeoGarage blog : ECDIS knowledge gaps exposed: what 5,000 bridge team assessments reveal about navigational risk

What is el Niño, and what does it mean for weather, water, and the global economy?

The last three months of sea surface temperature anomaly in the eastern pacific.

It's like watching Godzilla rising from the depths.

We crossed the threshold this year.

The blue is cold, black neutral, red warm, yellow hot.
It runs through three times on this video: pic.twitter.com/B3Nb8M6p3Q

— tern (@1goodtern) August 6, 2026

The last three months of sea surface temperature anomaly in the eastern pacific.
It's like watching Godzilla rising from the depths.
We crossed the threshold this year.
The blue is cold, black neutral, red warm, yellow hot. 

 

From Wired by Ritsuko Kawai 

This year’s El Niño is shaping up to be the strongest on record.
Here’s what to expect.

EL NIÑO LOOKS to reach an intensity unprecedented in recorded history.

Characterized by warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, El Niño occurs every few years.
Meteorological agencies and researchers around the world are on high alert because when the heat stored in the ocean is released into the atmosphere, it triggers a chain reaction that affects rainfall, temperatures, and even hurricane activity around the world.

This year’s El Niño has gained strength at an exceptional speed, and it will wreak havoc on everything from fisheries to ski seasons.
Not all impacts are bad—the parched Southwest, for example, is likely to see more winter precipitation—but anticipating them is the key to being prepared.

What exactly is happening now, and what might happen in the coming months? Read on to understand what El Niño is, why this one might be a super El Niño, and where its impacts will be most acutely felt.

What Is El Niño?

Declaring an El Niño requires meeting a certain threshold of oceanic heat in the Pacific—specifically, a region known as Niño 3.4.
It’s an area that sits between Niño 3 and Niño 4 if you want to geek out even more.
In plain language, it’s a region in the eastern-central tropical Pacific.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration uses the three-month average sea surface temperature of the region to determine if an El Niño is in effect.
If the ocean is 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal for three overlapping three-month periods, it’s officially an El Niño.

Other weather agencies do things a little differently.
Japan’s Meteorological Agency monitors a slightly different region using its own criteria, while the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s threshold has an atmospheric component as well.

In addition to warmer oceans, the trade winds that blow from east to west also weaken.
That allows seawater to pile up on the eastern side of the Pacific.
In 1997 and 2015—when El Niño events were among the strongest on record—sea levels rose more than 18 centimeters (7 inches) above average.

All this increases the odds of shifts in weather around the world.
There’s the aforementioned increase in rainfall in the Southwest as well as a corresponding decrease in Pacific Northwest precipitation.
Atlantic hurricane season tends to be milder as well, with fewer storms.

Indonesia sees an increased risk of drought, as do parts of southern Africa.
El Niño also tends to raise the odds of winter warmth in Japan and parts of Australia and Brazil.
(We can only speak of probabilities, because El Niño is not the only phenomenon affecting the weather on a given day or in a given season, but the phenomenon tilts the odds.

What Is a Super El Niño?

“Super El Niño” isn’t an official term any meteorological agency uses, but scientists generally use it to define any event where temperatures rise by at least 2 degrees Celsius above average.
While there’s no standardized definition, four particular El Niños are ones that check the super box: 1982–83, 1997–98, 2015–16, and 2023–24.

When the Super El Niño occurred in 1982–83, the Colorado River Basin in the US was hit by record-breaking heavy snowfall.
Combined with high spring temperatures and rainfall, the river’s flow exceeded 1.5 times the average.
Reservoirs upstream filled to capacity one after another, forcing emergency releases, and Lake Mead also reached near-capacity, causing water to overflow from the Hoover Dam spillway for the first time in about 40 years.
As a result, the basin suffered significant flood damage.
In other words, the impacts of El Niño that may be “good” can still lead to bad outcomes.

In 1997–98, Indonesia was hit by the worst drought in the past half-century, while the 2023-24 super El Niño contributed to the worst drought in over 100 years for southern Africa.
Conditions were so extreme that approximately 61 million people needed humanitarian aid.

How Is This El Niño Shaping Up?

There is a greater than 90 percent probability of this El Niño becoming “very strong” this fall and winter, according to NOAA.

Modeling by Berkeley Earth shows that median temperatures for the Niño 3.4 region could reach 3.6 degrees Celsius above normal—even after accounting for the effects of long-term global warming.
This would exceed the all-time high recorded during the 2015–16 El Niño by approximately 0.8 degrees Celsius.
Given that the difference between the strongest and fifth-strongest El Niño events over the past 150 years was only about 0.5 degrees Celsius, this represents an exceptional level of warming.

This El Niño event is also developing at a faster pace than usual.
While the 2015 El Niño developed from a situation where sea surface temperatures were already rising, this year’s began in a state closer to a La Niña (more on that later), with below-average sea surface temperatures.
Nevertheless, it is said to be developing even more rapidly than the 1997–98 super El Niño.

The economic impact of El Niño cannot be overlooked either.
An analysis found that the 1997–98 El Niño resulted in a cumulative loss of approximately $5.7 trillion over the following five years.

What About La Niña?

The counterpart to El Niño is La Niña, which is characterized by cooler-than-normal ocean temperatures in the Pacific.
It also occurs every few years, and the effects are generally opposite to those of El Niño.
That includes higher odds of more rain in Indonesia, a more active Atlantic hurricane season, and drier conditions in the Southwest, among others.
But with El Niño likely in the driver’s seat until at least spring, those impacts aren’t the ones to watch out for.

 

Links :

• NewScientist : ‘Off the charts’ El Niño is already the strongest since records began
• LiveScience : Ocean 'under unprecedented strain' as El Niño helps supercharge warming to record levels