Strongest El Niño in a century? What this rare phenomenon could bring.

 

Dramatic ocean warming expected across the Pacific could lead to one of the strongest El Niño events on record this year. (Ben Noll/The Washington Post; data source: ECMWF)

 

From WP by Ben Noll

This year’s potential super El Niño is looking increasingly likely to have wide-reaching climate impacts that last into 2027.

 The chances for a planet-warming super El Niño this year are rising, according to an updated model forecast issued Sunday.
The latest ECMWF outlook indicates there’s a high chance for a supercharged version of the climate pattern that affects regional-to-global weather patterns this summer or fall, doubling down on a super El Niño prediction from last month.

During a typical El Niño, a warming patch of water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean influences what regions experience droughts, floods, extreme heat, hurricanes and declining sea ice. During relatively rare super El Niño events, happening once every 10 to 15 years on average, the effects may be stronger, more persistent and more widespread.

That’s because sea temperatures in that key region of the Pacific Ocean warm more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above average, leading to a strong atmospheric response — typically peaking in December or January.

For example, the Western United States, parts of Africa, Europe and India could face a hotter-than-average summer, some tropical countries, such as those in the Caribbean and Indonesia could face worse drought and extreme heat, while more tropical cyclones could develop in the Pacific, with fewer in the Atlantic.
This possible super El Niño could also push global temperatures to record levels, particularly in 2027, and have agricultural impacts as weather patterns change.
“Real potential for the strongest El Niño event in 140 years,” wrote Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric science at the State University of New York at Albany.

 

A super El Niño event is forecast to develop by this fall, causing significant weather-related impacts across the planet. 

(Ben Noll/The Washington Post; data source: ECMWF)

Global impacts from a super El Niño

 

 SST anomalies

source : CoralReefWatch

This year’s potential super El Niño seems increasingly likely to have wide-reaching climate impacts that last into 2027.

It could break the record for El Niño intensity set in December 2015, when sea temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific reached 2.8 degrees Celsius (5.04 degrees Fahrenheit) above average.
Still, even as some signs point to a potent event, including a rare triplet-cyclone pattern brewing in the Pacific, uncertainty remains as to how strong this year’s El Niño will become. Furthermore, no two El Niño events are alike — especially as the climate warms — but past experiences can be used to help plan and prepare.
Here are some of the weather impacts predicted to unfold through at least October, according to the newest model outlook.

 

El Niño will influence areas of drought and downpours across the planet later this year.

(Ben Noll/The Washington Post; data source: ECMWF)

• Reduced hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean and possible drought in the Caribbean islands. Increased hurricane and typhoon risk in the Pacific Ocean, including Hawaii, Guam and much of eastern Asia.
• Potential drought in central and northern India, suppressing rainfall from that region’s monsoon season, which could impact agricultural production.
• Above-average summer temperatures and humidity in the Western United States, possibly coming with unusual downpours, which may reach into the Plains and extend severe thunderstorm season.
• Developing droughts in portions of Central Africa, Australia, Indonesia, the Philippines, some South Pacific islands, Central America and northern Brazil, particularly later in the year. Flooding downpours in Peru and Ecuador, parts of northern and eastern Africa, the Middle East and near the equator in the Pacific.
• Higher frequency of heat waves across large parts of South America, the southern United States, Africa, Europe, parts of the Middle East, India and eventually Australia.
• New global temperature records — especially in 2027 — probably breaking records set in 2024.

 

Well above-average temperatures are forecast across swaths of the planet later this year while El Niño is forecast to intensify.

(Ben Noll/The Washington Post; data source: ECMWF)

The strongest El Niño events almost always cause a record-warm year. That’s because heat comes out of the ocean during El Niño, overspreads the tropics in the Pacific, then gets redistributed across the planet by changes in the jet streams.
This could contribute to milder winter temperatures in the United States — and big storms along the West Coast — as the impacts of El Niño reach a peak from the end of the year into early 2027.

As the planet warms, El Niño behaves differently

Strong El Niño periods often appear as an upward stairstep in long-term plots of global temperatures.
“Due to the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases, the climate system cannot effectively exhaust the heat released in a major El Niño event before the next El Niño comes along and pushes the baseline upward again,” Defense Department meteorologist Eric Webb said.
Therefore, a super El Niño in 2026-27 would disperse more heat than other events in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.

 

Sea surface temperature anomalies during the formative stages of four El Niño events show how much more warm water there is in 2026 compared to past years.

(Ben Noll/The Washington Post; data source: NOAA/OISST)

Not only would a super El Niño spread unusual heat and humidity far and wide, but it may also spark record atmospheric moisture flows-, which drive downpours that raise the risk for floods. That’s because a warmer atmosphere has a higher moisture-carrying capacity.

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What a 5,000-mile-long marine heat wave means for summer in the U.S.

Bleached coral is visible in 2023 at the Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary, off the coast of Galveston, Texas, in the Gulf of Mexico.
(LM Otero/AP)

From WP by Ben Noll

 

It could worsen heat and humidity in the West this summer, and also boost the risks of Pacific hurricanes as well as wildfires in the region.

 
A massive ocean hot spot is stretching across a 5,000-mile swath of the Pacific — from Micronesia to the coastal waters of California.
Across this zone, waters are as much as 6 to 8 degrees above average.

And it has the attention of climate scientists, who say it could boost temperatures, humidity and the threat for tropical storms in the West during the months ahead.
Climate scientist Daniel Swain described this increasingly extreme marine heat wave as an “exceptional event” that’s breaking records.

The unusual ocean anomaly — the largest on the planet — could expand and intensify to cover the entire Pacific coast of North America by late summer, he wrote.
The development of this ocean hot spot, which is linked to a forming El Niño, also follows record warmth and a historic lack of snow in parts of the West earlier this year.
Such conditions could worsen as the warm waters influence weather patterns in the coming months.

 

A marine heat wave grows and intensifies across the Pacific Ocean during March and April.

(Ben Noll/the Washington Post; NOAA)

How this marine heat wave could affect weather patterns

 
This marine heat wave is expected to be a key driver of conditions this spring and summer and it “could yield a summer quite different in California and the Southwest than we’ve seen in quite some time,” Swain said.

Its influence will vary — and it won’t immediately bring wall-to-wall heat and humidity to the region.

Over the coming weeks, the West will experience unsettled conditions and variable temperatures.
That’s due to an enhancement in the subtropical jet stream — partly because of the marine heat wave.
This will bring some beneficial moisture to the parched Intermountain West.
But these milder effects won’t last.
As summer approaches, the marine heat wave will probably contribute to elevated overnight temperatures, leading to reduced relief from hot daytime conditions.
There’s also increased potential for uncomfortable humidity levels — something that is unusual in the West.
Warmer ocean waters increase evaporation, which can raise atmospheric moisture levels, especially along the coast.

 

An extensive and strong marine heat wave in the Pacific is forecast to last for months and is expected to influence weather patterns in the West.
(Ben Noll/the Washington Post; ECMWF)

 

The marine heat wave and a developing El Niño are expected to increase the level of moisture availability, probably leading to more summer humidity and thunderstorms in the West.

(Ben Noll/the Washington Post; ECMWF)

Then, later in summer, the marine heat wave and a forming El Niño could join forces to boost monsoonal thunderstorm activity across the West.
This could enhance fire risks in the region — as dry lightning strikes can spark wildfires.

According to the National Interagency Fire Center, there’s above-average wildfire risk across several Western states during June and July.

The marine heat wave could also seriously boost the odds of an active eastern Pacific hurricane season — extending westward toward Hawaii.
It will also raise the chances for the remnants of a tropical storm reaching California, which could spread moisture far and wide across the West — like Hurricane Hilary did in 2023.

Concerns about impacts in the ocean

Dillon Amaya, a climate scientist researching marine heat waves with NOAA, said that oceanic impacts may occur in places such as Hawaii as well as Southern and Baja California.
“In Southern California, we are concerned about fish migration, kelp forest degradation, whale entanglements, harmful algal blooms and sea bird mortality,” Amaya said.
However, Amaya said that in the open ocean, migrating fish can “get out of the way” of the marine heat wave.

Where April ocean temperatures have been record or near-record high

Showing a low-resolution version of the map.
Make sure your browser supports WebGL to see the full version.

Considering data from April 5 to April 18
Source: NOAA OISST

What’s causing this hot spot

This year’s marine heat wave — a persistent and extensive area of well above-average sea temperatures — is being driven by the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM).

In its positive phase, the PMM is marked by warmer than average seas that stretch southwest-to-northeast across the Pacific for thousands of miles.
It typically develops from winter into spring through a series of atmospheric patterns that cause winds to weaken, which reduce evaporation and cause ocean warming.
Once warm water from the PMM nears the equator, it can help feed a growing El Niño, with Amaya describing it as a precursor to that climate pattern, which can have much wider, global impacts.

This marine heat wave is the second big one in as many years to span the Pacific.
Last fall, a record-breaking marine heat wave extended from eastern Asia into the North Pacific — and it still hasn’t fully faded.
Its intensity was amplified by the planet’s long-term warming trend.
This year’s record-breaking marine heat wave is feeling that same tailwind of rising global temperatures.

How long was 'mummified' German sailor adrift?

Filipino fishermen recovering the drifting yacht off Barobo town.

Photograph: Barobo police/EPA

 

From The Guardian by Ian Sample

Mystery surrounds death of Manfred Fritz Bajorat, found slumped ‘like he was sleeping’ in yacht floating near Philippines

A German sailor found dead on a yacht drifting in the Philippine Sea may have become mummified within weeks of his sudden death on board the vessel, forensic scientists have said.

Local fishermen discovered the leathery corpse of Manfred Fritz Bajorat, 59, at the weekend after they boarded the battered yacht 60 miles off the coast of Barobo town in Surigeo del Sur province.

The dead mariner was still seated at the desk by the radio in the 12-metre (40ft) yacht, slumped over on his right arm, when the fishermen found him.

Investigators believe he died of a heart attack or stroke and was swiftly preserved in the warm, salty ocean air.

Police identified Bajorat, an experienced sailor, from photographs, letters and other documents strewn around the yacht’s cabin.

The vessel, which had a broken mast and was partly filled with water, was towed into Barobo for a formal investigation.

 

The mummified body of Manfred Fritz Bajorat, which was found slumped at a table in his yacht ‘like he was sleeping’.

Photograph: Barobo police

Inspector Mark Navales, deputy police chief in Barobo town, said that while the cause of Bajorat’s death was unclear, there were no signs of foul play

The weather conditions would have rapidly dried the dead body from the outside, turning the skin into a leathery protective barrier against bacteria and insects.

But under the fat and muscle, bacteria in the gut may have begun to decompose the body from the inside.

“The air, heat, and saltiness of sea are all very conducive to mummification,” said Peter Vanezis, professor of forensic pathology at Barts and the London School of Medicine and Dentistry.
“It starts within two to three weeks. The fingers and other extremities – the nose, the face – dry quickly, and in a month or two they are well gone.”

A week after death, the skin could become yellow, hard and leathery, with complete mummification occurring after several weeks, Frank Wehner, a forensic pathologist at Tübingen University, told the Bild newspaper.

The light coating of grey that covers the mummified body is believed to be mould.

While Bajorat has been named through items on the yacht, investigators may yet restore his facial features and obtain fingerprints to confirm his identity.

Vanezis performed the same exercise on the mummified corpse of a man discovered in the funnel of a ship that arrived at Tilbury port from Mombasa in Kenya.
He used dilute sodium hydroxide – caustic soda – to soften up the mummy’s hardened skin.

“As a result, we got back his facial features and managed to get fingerprints off his fingers too,” Vanezis said.

Among the material found on the yacht was a letter from Bajorat to his former wife, Claudia, who died in 2010, reports claim.
According to the Mirror, the note read: “Thirty years we’ve been together on the same path. Then the power of the demons was stronger than the will to live. You’re gone. May your soul find its peace. Your Manfred.”

Links :

• The Independant : Mummified sailor Manfred Fritz Bajorat discovered on yacht missing for a year
• HuffPost : 'Mummified' German Sailor Manfred Fritz Bajorat Had Penned Tragic Letter To Dead Wife Claudia
• CBS news : Fishermen find mummy-like body sat in drifting yacht
• YBW : Video: Yacht carrying ‘mummified’ German sailor originally found by Clipper Round the World crew
• PBO : Mummified sailor: Clipper Race statement