Sunday, March 15, 2026

Green lights


David Gonzalez Buendia
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Saturday, March 14, 2026

Where the ocean turns dark forever

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Friday, March 13, 2026

ATSB: Cruise ship's chief mate distracted by ECDIS ahead of grounding

ATSB published a preliminary report on our on-going investigation into the grounding of cruise ship Coral Adventurer, which occurred on the north-east coast of Papua New Guinea in late 2025.

The cruise ship Coral Adventurer ran aground on a reef off Papua New Guinea after the ship's ECDIS declined to load the chief mate's route plan, the first in a series of events that led to the ship overshooting a turn and overcorrecting, according to the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB).

On the morning of December 27, 2025, Coral Adventurer was under way off the remote northeastern coast of Papua New Guinea and nearing the small port of Dregerhafen.
 

Source: Google Earth, Coral Expeditions, annotated by the ATSB
 
The waters on the approach are ringed by reefs, with large areas poorly surveyed, and vessels have to execute two tight turns to reach the harbor entrance - first to port, then to starboard.
 
 Coral Adventurer's grounding location and planned trackline, red
Aerial view of the entry to Dregerhafen.
Insert below shows the view from the approximate ship’s position 3 minutes before grounding, taken from the height of the bridge in daylight.
Source: Sebastian Bang, annotated by the ATSB.
Insert view, the ATSB.

At the start of the 0400 watch, the cruise ship was approaching Dregerhafen's harbor entrance.
 
Source: Australian Hydrographic Office, annotated by the ATSB
 
The chief mate had the conn, and decided to adjust the route in the ECDIS to smooth out the second of the two turns of the transit, thereby creating a new route plan in the digital chart system's storage.
The new Route 2 still adhered closely to the passage plan's track, but with an extra waypoint.

At 0512, as the approach to the port was in progress, the mate selected this modified route and tried to activate it.
The ECDIS declined to do so until after it had performed a route safety check in its route editor tool.

The chief mate had to go through the process of this digital check mid-transit.
 

At 01513, the Coral Adventurer missed its first wheel over point and overshot its turn to port.
This put it on course to enter unsurveyed and potentially hazardous waters to the north of the route.
The chief mate put steering in manual and made a harder turn to get back onto the route.
The vessel returned to the planned track, but slowed down, affected by a strong current at the entrance channel.
Planned track (blue) and actual track (red) overlaid on vector chart in use on board Coral Adventurer at the time of the grounding.
Source: Australian Hydrographic Office, modified and annotated by the ATSB

Localization with the GeoGarage platform (nautical raster chart with ZOC & ENC)

The chief mate increased RPM on both thrusters to offset the current, which had reduced speed to less than four knots.

With the throttes pushed up, the mate put steering back into autopilot at about 0518, in advance of the second turn.
At 0519, the vessel arrived at the second wheel over point, making eight knots.
The vessel overshot the turn again, prompting the mate to switch back to manual once more at 0521.
The ship was off course to the west of the intended trackline, and the mate made a hard turn to starboard to get onto the planned track.

At this point, the chief mate lost situational awareness, they later told investigators.
 
Source: Coral Adventurer, annotated by the ATSB
 
In darkness and without navigation aids, they did not have a sense of the surrounding topography.
The mate kept up the high rate of turn to starboard until 0523:30, coming up on a northeasterly heading back towards the trackline.
Misinterpreting the view ahead and believing that the ship was back on track, the mate continued to navigate across the trackline, making more than eight knots.

At 0524, the master arrived on the bridge, and visually spotted shallow water ahead; the ship grounded about 15 seconds after the master's warning.
The Coral Adventurer came from 8.5 knots to a halt by 0525:30. 

Dive inspections revealed that the hull was not penetrated, and that the propulsion was intact.
 
Source: Coral Expeditions, annotated by the ATSB
 
A tug was chartered for a refloat attempt, but this was initially unsuccessful, as the tug's engines overheated during the effort.
A larger tug was dispatched, and the Coral Adventurer was successfully refloated on December 30.

Wednesday's report is a factfinding summary, without causal findings. ATSB's inquiry into the cause of the grounding remains under way. 

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Thursday, March 12, 2026

Will there be a super El NiƱo later this year? Here’s what that would mean


A super El NiƱo may develop in the equatorial Pacific Ocean later this year, causing significant changes in weather patterns around the world. 
(Ben Noll/the Washington Post; ECMWF)

From WashingtonPost by Ben Noll

New data suggests this has the potential to become one of the strongest El NiƱo events on record.

The planet may experience a strong or even a super El NiƱo later this year, one that could rival the strongest ones in history, according to new climate data recently released by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

A typical El NiƱo affects regional-to-global weather patterns, as a warming patch of water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean influences what regions could experience droughts, floods and extreme heat.
During these relatively rare super El NiƱo events, happening once every 10 to 15 years on average, the effects may be stronger, more persistent and more widespread.

That’s because sea temperatures in that key region of the Pacific Ocean warm more than 2 degrees Celsius above average, leading to a profound atmospheric response.

Those impacts can include the frequency and location of heat waves, the locations of flooding downpours and drought could focus, where hurricanes may hit, and declining sea ice concentrations.
For example, the Western United States could face a hotter than average summer, some tropical countries could face worse drought and extreme heat, while more tropical cyclones could develop in the Pacific, with fewer in the Atlantic.

There’s also a growing chance that this year’s El NiƱo, especially if it’s a strong one, would push global temperatures to record levels, particularly in 2027.

It’s a possibility that has the attention of climate scientists, though there are a range of views on how strong it may become.

“Whew," wrote climate scientist Daniel Swain last week in a post on X.
“All signs are increasingly pointing to a significant, if not strong to very strong, El NiƱo event.”


El NiƱo impacts across the world

This year’s El NiƱo is looking increasingly likely to have wide-reaching impacts across the planet.

It’s still in its developmental stages and it’s too early to confidently say just how strong it may become, but its tendencies have been similar to major events in the past — boosted by record-breaking westerly wind bursts in the Pacific, which blow warm water eastward.

No two El NiƱo events are exactly alike, but here are some of the possibilities.

Atlantic hurricane season impacts

Harsh winds in the middle and upper atmosphere during formidable El NiƱo events can create conditions that are less conducive to hurricane formation.

“Overall, this would be about as unfavorable an Atlantic look as you could get for the peak of hurricane season,” wrote meteorologist Andy Hazelton, who has been tracking this potential El NiƱo’s impact on the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, which starts June 1.

Even if there are fewer storms, El NiƱo doesn’t tell you where hurricanes may go.
It only takes one landfall — as demonstrated by Hurricane Andrew in Florida in 1992 — for it to be a memorable season.

Global temperature records

The strongest El NiƱo events almost always cause a record warm year.
That’s because heat comes out of the ocean during El NiƱo, overspreads the tropics in the Pacific, then gets redistributed across the planet.

“The El Nino cometh,” wrote climate scientist Zeke Hausfather.

“This would push up our estimate for 2026 global temperatures (though it’s still unlikely to surpass 2024 as the warmest year), and make 2027 very likely to be the warmest year on record,” he said, citing that air temperature increases lag behind El NiƱo’s development.

As El NiƱo builds, global temperature records may be broken in the years ahead


 
Sea surface temperature anomalies during the formative stages of four El NiƱo events show how much more warm water is available in 2026 compared to past years.
(Ben Noll/the Washington Post; NOAA/OISST)


Strong El NiƱo periods often appear as an upward stairstep in long-term plots of global temperatures.

“Due to the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases, the climate system cannot effectively exhaust the heat released in a major El NiƱo event before the next El NiƱo comes along and pushes the baseline upward again,” Defense Department meteorologist Eric Webb said.

Therefore, a super El NiƱo in 2026-27 would disperse more heat than other very strong events in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.

Worldwide weather extremes

El NiƱo can have wide-reaching influences on global weather patterns — where the same sources of building heat can have varying consequences across the planet.

El NiƱo can increase the risk for droughts across the planet, including parts of Africa, India, Indonesia, Australia and the Caribbean.
Long-range precipitation outlooks have more skill in and near the tropics with lower skill elsewhere. 
(Ben Noll/the Washington Post; ECMWF)

A marine heat wave building near West Coast — partly linked to El NiƱo’s development — could influence a hotter-than-average summer across the Western U.S., further increasing the wildfire risk amid ongoing drought.

Meanwhile, Hawaii could encounter more tropical storms and hurricanes this year, fueled by a patch of warm water extending across the subtropical and tropical eastern Pacific — because of an El NiƱo-linked phenomenon called the Pacific Meridional Mode.
Some of that moisture could eventually reach the Intermountain West during the late summer monsoon season in the Southwest.

Starting in the middle of the year, there will be potential for more typhoons in the Western Pacific, including across the Philippines, China and Japan.

India’s monsoon, which runs from June to September, could also be affected, with less rain than normal across the subcontinent.

Drought could also build across Australia and Indonesia, parts of eastern Africa and the Caribbean islands, while downpours soak Peru, Ecuador and Hawaii.
During the 2015-16 super El NiƱo, droughts hit Ethiopia, Somalia, Haiti, Central America, Papua New Guinea and Vietnam particularly hard.

Tropical countries across South America, Africa and the Middle East as well as India and Australia will likely swelter under extreme heat and/or humidity, coinciding with a rise in tropical sea temperatures and/or drought in some areas.

Late in the year, a stronger southern branch of the jet stream could influence heavy downpours and the potential for flooding, including across some southern states dealing with drought, such as Florida.
That stronger southern jet stream can also increase the chance for flooding wintertime downpours in California.

El NiƱo can also have a moderating effect on winter temperatures, as the northern branch of the jet stream is nudged farther north and frigid air less frequently ventures southward into the U.S.


How confident is this El NiƱo outlook?

Although a forecast update will come out later this week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is currently favoring El NiƱo development.

Michelle L’Heureux, the lead forecaster for NOAA’s updates on the El NiƱo-Southern Oscillation, said her team uses a multi-model approach because it provides more reliable predictions.

“If we look across a lot of different models, the realm of possibilities ranges from a weak La NiƱa to a strong El NiƱo," she said.

NOAA’s key seasonal climate forecasting system, called the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, trended toward a stronger El NiƱo forming this year — in line with ECMWF — in an update released on Saturday.

While L'Heureux considered the new outlook from ECMWF to be an interesting data point, she added that these predictions are also being made in spring, under the influence of the spring prediction barrier, a time of less accurate El NiƱo predictions.

She also said there is ample historical precedent for models predicting big El NiƱo events in the spring that don’t come to fruition because westerly wind bursts pause or cease, with 2014 being an example.

“I realize there is interest in these El NiƱo forecasts because we often see El NiƱo form in advance of their main impacts, which allows everyone to assess risk and mitigate possible influences,” L’Heureux said.

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Wednesday, March 11, 2026

HMM cap­tain approves of autonom­ous AI nav­ig­a­tion

Captain Park Sang-hyun of the HMM Emerald explains navigation equipment monitors on the bridge. [KO SUK-HYUN]

From Korea JoongAng Daily by Ko Suk-Hyun
 
A 24-hour AI autonom­ous nav­ig­a­tion sys­tem is begin­ning to take a more act­ive role on the bridge of a large con­tainer ship sail­ing the Pacific, with its oper­at­ors say­ing it can help plot routes, guide the ves­sel’s speed and improve col­li­sion avoid­ance.

HMM has been test­ing the solu­tion on the 13,000-twenty-foot-equi­val­en­tunit (TEU) HMM Emer­ald and plans to expand its applic­a­tion across its fleet.


 HMM's ship comprehensive situation room. /Courtesy of Han Ye-na
 
“It feels like we’ve gained one more savvy nav­ig­ator for the long ocean-cross­ing voy­age,” said Park Sang-hyun, the cap­tain of the HMM Emer­ald, refer­ring to the Hyundai Intel­li­gent Nav­ig­a­tion Assist­ant Sys­tem (HiNAS), an AI-powered autonom­ous nav­ig­a­tion solu­tion, on Feb. 26.
Park, with 23 years at sea and nine years as a cap­tain under his belt, said the sys­tem has proven its worth.

The 13,000-TEU con­tainer ship has been under­go­ing trial oper­a­tions since Novem­ber 2024 as the first HMM ves­sel to adopt HiNAS.

Captain Park Sang-hyun looks at the Avikus system in the bridge of the Emerald. 
Courtesy of Han Ye-na

The sys­tem was developed by Avikus, an autonom­ous nav­ig­a­tion firm under HD Hyundai Group, and has sup­por­ted the ship on trips total­ing 100,000 naut­ical miles (109,700 miles).
HMM plans to intro­duce HiNAS to 40 ves­sels by the end of this year.

The HMM Emer­ald, which oper­ates an eight-week round trip between Busan and Los Angeles on a U.S. West Coast route, meas­ures 335 meters (1,100 feet) long, 51 meters wide and 66 meters high, roughly com­par­able to a 10-story apart­ment build­ing. 
A total of 23 people are on board, includ­ing Korean deck and engine officers and Filipino crew mem­bers.

Step­ping onto the ship, which had arrived at Busan Port overnight, the heavy smell of fuel lingered in the sea wind. 
The highest point on board, the com­pass deck, was packed with obser­va­tion equip­ment, such as radar detect­ors.
 
The Hyundai Intelligent Navigation Assistant System camera unit is located on the HMM Emerald’s topmost deck. 
[KO SUK-HYUN]
 
There, the HiNAS nav­ig­a­tion cam­era unit, a box-shaped device about 31 to 33 cen­ti­meters (12 to 13 inches) by 24 cen­ti­meters, is installed.
 
“Six cam­eras — three optical and three infrared — serve as the ship’s eyes both day and night,” said Kim Hyeon-jae, a lead at Avikus. 
“Using data [from the cam­eras], the AI keeps the ves­sel on its planned track and main­tains its speed accord­ing to pre­set con­di­tions.”

The col­lec­ted data is trans­mit­ted via cables to the bridge, where the helm, charts and com­mu­nic­a­tions equip­ment are loc­ated. 
On a large mon­itor in the chart room, a video feed of real-time con­di­tions in front of the ship appears along­side inform­a­tion regard­ing the route, speed, water depth, rud­der angle and nearby ves­sels.

HMM’s container ship, the HMM Emerald, is berthed at Pier 4 of Busan New Port on Feb. 26.
[KO SUK-HYUN]
 
Jeon Tae-young, the HMM Emer­ald’s second officer, said HiNAS’s cap­ab­il­it­ies go bey­ond what earlier auto­pi­lots could do.

“The auto­pi­lot func­tions on exist­ing ships largely focus on [the ves­sel’s dir­ec­tion],” Jeon said. “HiNAS can set an optimal route on its own and sail based on that route.”

“If the nav­ig­ator inputs the desired arrival time for a des­tin­a­tion, the sys­tem auto­mat­ic­ally cal­cu­lates guid­ance for optimal engine revolu­tions per minute and speed by factor­ing in real­time weather and rout­ing,” Jeon added. 
“We’re work­ing with the AI by ana­lyz­ing a range of nav­ig­a­tion data in real time to improve effi­ciency and keep pre­cisely to the planned track.”

HiNAS also includes a col­li­sion avoid­ance func­tion that detects other ves­sels and sup­ports evas­ive man­euvers.

“When another ship enters a set range, [the sys­tem] alerts the nav­ig­ator and, if neces­sary, can alter course to avoid it and then return to the ori­ginal route,” Kim said. 
 
HMM Emerald second officer Jeon Tae-young uses the Hyundai Intelligent Navigation Assistant System’s “route planning” function to design a route from Busan Port to Los Angeles. 
[KO SUK-HYUN]
 
Jeon said the fea­ture is most use­ful in open-ocean stretches with little traffic, while manual con­trol remains the norm in con­ges­ted waters.

Pilot test­ing post-HiNAS adop­tion showed annual fuel sav­ings of 2.5 to 4.5 per­cent, along with accom­pa­ny­ing reduc­tions in car­bon emis­sions, accord­ing to HMM. 
A large ship’s annual fuel bill typ­ic­ally runs about 10 bil­lion to 20 bil­lion won ($6.8 mil­lion to $13.6 mil­lion), and Avikus said fuel sav­ings alone could allow the install­a­tion cost to be recovered within a year.

Full autonomy, however, remains a dis­tant goal, in part because mari­time rules are more com­plex than those on roads.

“HiNAS cor­res­ponds to Level 2 under the Inter­na­tional Mari­time Organ­iz­a­tion frame­work for Mari­time Autonom­ous Sur­face Ships,” said Kim. 
“Watch­keep­ing by crew remains essen­tial, with col­li­sion-avoid­ance func­tions requir­ing a nav­ig­ator’s judg­ment. Manual oper­a­tion is also the default in heav­ily traf­ficked waters.”

Even so, the fact that AI has begun to par­ti­cip­ate in oper­at­ing large com­mer­cial ves­sels that cross oceans is fuel­ing expect­a­tions that autonom­ous nav­ig­a­tion tech­no­logy could spread across the industry.

“It’s not at the point where AI can stand watch in a nav­ig­ator’s place,” Park said. 
“But it lets us focus on judg­ment and mon­it­or­ing, which reduces the bur­den and improves safety. In the future, it could help ease sea­farer short­ages caused by a shrink­ing work­force.”
 
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