Thursday, July 2, 2026

More than a boundary: why Japan-Philippines maritime talks matter for China


A television screen shows a news report on patrol and law‑enforcement operations around Taiwan conducted by the China Coast Guard, at a restaurant in Beijing in late December. | REUTERS

From JapanTimes by Gabriel Dominguez

At first glance, Japan and the Philippines’ decision to begin negotiations on a maritime boundary appears to be a routine exercise in international law. But China’s unusually forceful response signals that the talks are about far more than drawing a line at sea.

Beijing argues the talks infringe on maritime rights it claims through Taiwan and sees discussions as part of a broader effort by two key U.S. allies to deepen strategic coordination in waters central to China’s security interests.

When Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. used a late-May summit in Tokyo to launch the bilateral delimitation talks, China reacted swiftly.

China not only declared the negotiations “illegal, null and void” and lodged diplomatic protests, but also backed its rhetoric with action, deploying coast guard vessels for what it described as “law-enforcement patrols” east of Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own territory.

By extending its operations south of Yonaguni Island into waters Tokyo considers part of its exclusive economic zone (EEZ), Beijing underscored its determination to contest the talks both diplomatically and at sea.

Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), such negotiations are routine whenever states have overlapping EEZs and continental shelves.
 
EEZ with the GeoGarage platform

More than routine talks

So why has Beijing reacted so strongly?

The answer lies in the unique geography of the waters east of Taiwan, where international law, the self-ruled island’s contested status and intensifying strategic competition converge.

What would otherwise be a routine delimitation has become a contest over how one of the Indo-Pacific’s most sensitive maritime corridors should be governed.


A China Coast Guard vessel sails near a Japan Coast Guard vessel around the Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands last September. | HITOSHI NAKAMA / VIA REUTERS

Japan and the Philippines do not share a land border, but their EEZs and continental shelves overlap because Japan’s southwestern islands and the Philippines’ northernmost islands lie less than 400 nautical miles (740 kilometers) apart.

Taiwan, meanwhile, sits almost directly between Japan and the Philippines.
Any eventual boundary would almost certainly pass through waters where maritime entitlements generated by the island overlap with those claimed by Tokyo and Manila.

Because Beijing considers those entitlements as belonging to China, the negotiations inevitably intersect with the Taiwan issue, transforming an otherwise routine legal exercise into one with significant strategic and political implications.

Why Beijing is so alarmed


China argues that Taiwan is an inalienable part of its territory and that the maritime rights generated by the democratic island therefore fall under Beijing’s jurisdiction.
From that perspective, any boundary negotiated in these waters cannot legitimately proceed without China’s participation.

Japan and the Philippines reject that premise. While both acknowledge Beijing’s “One China” position, neither recognizes Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan.

By negotiating under UNCLOS, they are treating the issue as a bilateral maritime delimitation rather than one requiring China’s participation.
That framework does not require every potentially interested party to participate in the same negotiation, and such agreements routinely state that they are without prejudice to third-party rights.

If concluded, a boundary deal would reinforce a framework for managing overlapping maritime claims while leaving third-party rights formally unresolved.

The talks are designed to “cement Japan-Philippine maritime cooperation” by clarifying the boundary and facilitating closer political, military and economic ties, said James Kraska, an expert on international maritime law at the U.S. Naval War College.

Why now?


Japan and the Philippines have claimed overlapping maritime zones for decades, yet neither prioritized boundary talks until recently.

What has changed is the regional security environment.


A China Coast Guard ship is seen on the horizon through a telescopic view from Philippine-occupied Thitu Island in the disputed South China Sea in February. | REUTERS

China’s sustained maritime pressure — including expansive South China Sea claims, growing coast guard operations around disputed features and repeated incursions into waters surrounding the Japanese-controlled but Chinese-claimed Senkaku Islands — has led Tokyo and Manila to deepen defense ties at an accelerated pace.

Once centered on development assistance, the Japan-Philippine relationship has evolved into a comprehensive security partnership encompassing a visiting-forces agreement, defense equipment exports, closer military and coast guard cooperation and negotiations toward an expanded intelligence-sharing pact.

In that context, maritime delimitation has become another pillar of the rapidly expanding security partnership rather than merely a legal exercise. Clarifying the maritime boundary between the quasi-allies, Kraska said, removes lingering uncertainty and facilitates closer cooperation across political, military and economic domains.

‘First island chain’ legal geography

A maritime boundary agreement would establish a clearer legal framework in the strategically important waters linking the East China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.

Far from simply drawing a line at sea, such a deal would contribute to the gradual alignment of the region’s legal geography with its evolving security architecture along the “first island chain” — the string of islands stretching from Japan toward Borneo.

By clarifying jurisdiction over fisheries, law enforcement and coast guard operations, a final agreement could complement allied coordination and maritime domain awareness in one of the Indo-Pacific’s most sensitive maritime corridors.

The strategic importance of these waters has grown as the Chinese Navy pushes farther into the western Pacific. Unlike the shallow and congested Taiwan Strait, the deeper waters of the Philippine Sea provide the Chinese Navy with a key route into the wider Pacific.

Defense analysts have long regarded this maritime space as critical to Beijing’s naval operations beyond the first island chain, which is also why strengthening coordination across the same corridor has become an increasingly important objective for Tokyo, Washington and Manila.

From diplomacy to ‘gray-zone’ competition

China’s response suggests it intends to contest not only the eventual outcome of the negotiations but also the premise that Japan and the Philippines can negotiate over those waters without Beijing.

The recent coast guard deployment suggests Beijing is increasingly willing to extend its “gray-zone” activities east of Taiwan, reinforcing its claims through regular deployments while contesting actions it believes undermine them.


A Taiwan Coast Guard ship patrols near Dadan Island, with China's Xiamen city visible in the background, last October. | REUTERS

Kraska suggests that China’s opposition ultimately reflects a broader objective: resisting developments that bring Japan and the Philippines closer together strategically. Viewed in that light, Beijing’s reaction is directed not only at the legal implications of a maritime boundary but also at what a deal would represent for the evolving regional balance.

Taiwan’s delicate balancing act


The negotiations also present a dilemma for Taiwan.

Taipei has generally welcomed closer security cooperation among Japan, the Philippines and other like-minded partners in response to growing Chinese military pressure.

At the same time, the island maintains its own longstanding maritime claims in the waters east of Taiwan. Openly endorsing a Japan-Philippines boundary could be interpreted as weakening those claims, while objecting to the negotiations would risk undermining cooperation with two of its most important partners.

Instead, Taiwan has adopted a dual-track approach. While rejecting Beijing’s claims and supporting closer cooperation with regional partners, its Foreign Ministry has also sought assurances through its representative offices in Tokyo and Manila that any eventual agreement would not prejudice Taiwan’s maritime rights or existing fisheries arrangements.

A parallel transformation


Much attention has focused on the military dimension of allied cooperation along the first island chain — from missile deployments and expanded access agreements to integrated operational planning and sophisticated joint exercises.

Less noticed is the parallel construction of a legal and institutional architecture driven by coast guard cooperation, reciprocal access agreements, intelligence sharing and maritime boundary negotiations.

While these initiatives do not resolve competing maritime claims or the complex legal questions surrounding Taiwan, they demonstrate how institutional cooperation has become a critical feature of the region’s security landscape.

The unfolding negotiations reveal that competition along the first island chain is no longer just about missile deployments and military exercises; it is increasingly a contest over the legal and institutional order governing these strategically important waters.

For years, Beijing has relied on sustained coast guard deployments and other gray-zone activities to reinforce its maritime claims. Japan and the Philippines, by contrast, are seeking to clarify jurisdiction and deepen bilateral cooperation through maritime delimitation and other institutional mechanisms.

As the negotiations progress, the waters east of Taiwan are becoming a testing ground for two competing approaches to managing the regional maritime order: one grounded primarily in sustained operational presence, the other in legal and institutional coordination.
 
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Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Map shows US cities that could go underwater if sea levels rise 3 meters

In a total meltdown scenario, global sea levels would rise by a maximum of around 66 meters/217 feet. Anything shown beyond this level in this video is a theoretical simulation to explore the extreme limits of our geography.

From Newsweek by Jasmine Laws


Scientists are warning that the collapse of Antarctica’s massive “doomsday glacier” could eventually redraw large parts of America’s coastline, threatening major cities from Florida to California with severe flooding and rising seas.

Researchers say the Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica is becoming increasingly unstable, raising fears that its eventual collapse could contribute to dramatic long-term sea level rise.

While the glacier itself could add around 65 centimeters (roughly 2 feet) to global sea levels, some scientists worry it could destabilize much larger sections of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet—potentially contributing to sea level rise approaching 3 meters (nearly 10 feet) over time.

Such a rise would dramatically alter large stretches of the U.S. coastline, threatening homes, infrastructure, airports and major cities across several states.

Glacier On The ‘Cusp of Collapse’



The Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica is seen in this undated NASA image. Right now, Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets both contribute under or near 1 millimeter to sea-level rise every year; they each contain enough stored ice to drive up ocean levels by 20 and 200 feet, respectively.

David Holland, a professor of mathematics and atmosphere/ocean science at New York University, told Newsweek that the glacier is on the “cusp of collapse,” and that he was “concerned” about it.

“It is held back on its sides by the buttressing provided by the ice shelf in front of it, which is now about to collapse,” he explained.
The glacier is also held back by “a hump in the seafloor at its current grounding line,” he added, which he said “may be next to go, given the high rate of melt occurring there.”

The result of the glacier’s collapse would be vast. Holland said that “certainly, low-lying cities and states in the U.S. would experience floods,” while many other cities and countries would “undergo stress” as well.

Safe embed will be rendered here
Thwaites Glacier—Major Changes Between 2001 and 2019
Service URL: https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/29052478/embed
 
Which American Cities Could Be Flooded?


National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projection maps show that a 3-meter rise in sea levels would inundate major parts of the U.S. coastline, with some of the country’s most populated urban areas facing chronic flooding or partial submersion.
Eastern Seaboard and Gulf Coast

Florida would be among the hardest-hit states. Large parts of the coastline could disappear beneath rising seas, while cities including Jacksonville, Fort Lauderdale, Tampa, St. Petersburg and Panama City would face severe flooding risks.
Large stretches of low-lying coastal communities across the state could also become uninhabitable.

Large sections of the Gulf Coast would also be exposed.
Cities and communities along the Texas coastline near Galveston Bay, Freeport and Surfside Beach could see extensive inundation, while low-lying parts of Louisiana, including areas around New Orleans, would remain especially vulnerable.

Other coastal cities at risk include Charleston, South Carolina; Savannah, Georgia; Norfolk and Virginia Beach, Virginia; Wilmington, North Carolina; Baltimore, Maryland; and parts of New Jersey, Delaware and Mississippi.

New York City would face widespread flooding risks across parts of Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island and Lower Manhattan.
Critical infrastructure, including Newark Liberty International Airport and nearby transport links, could also be affected. MetLife Stadium in New Jersey—one of the venues for the 2026 FIFA World Cup—lies within an area vulnerable to flooding under NOAA’s projections.
West Coast


A screenshot of an NOAA map showing which U.S. cities would be underwater if there was a 10-foot sea level rise.

In California, areas around the San Francisco Bay, Oakland, San Mateo and parts of Southern California near San Diego and Oxnard would also face major impacts.

Notable parts of the landscape and wildlife reserves could also be affected, including Big Lagoon, the Brush Creek/Lagoon Lake Wetlands and Coastal Dunes Natural Preserve, the Ventura County Game Reserve as well as vast amounts of the California Coastal National Monument.

Why Scientists Are Worried by the Thwaites Glacier


Thwaites is the widest glacier on the planet, stretching around 120 kilometers (75 miles), and its basin measures around 192,000 kilometers squared, meaning it is larger than the state of Florida.

Over the years, Thwaites—located in West Antarctica—has been losing ice at an increasing pace, and since 2000 the glacier has experienced a net loss of more than 1 trillion tons of ice.

The tongue of the glacier—which is the extension that floats out over water—has continued to fracture and separate from the ice shelf in recent years, as images from NASA show.
The floating ice is now melting, given that the seawater is a few degrees above freezing as warmer water temperatures have recently been recorded in the region.
 
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Tuesday, June 30, 2026

WSC: Nearly 1,500 containers lost at sea during 2025


The World Shipping Council (WSC) has published its Containers Lost at Sea report, finding that container loss rose significantly last year.

In 2025, an estimated 1,478 containers were lost at sea out of approximately 280 million transported, equivalent to 0.0005 percent of global container movements.
While this represents an increase from 576 containers lost in 2024 and is above the recent three-year average, it remains within the range of historical variation and continues to reflect a very small proportion of overall containerized trade.

A notable feature of 2025 was the concentration of losses in a small number of incidents.
One major incident alone accounted for 640 containers lost, or approximately 43 percent of the annual total. This underscores the continued influence of isolated, large-scale events in shaping yearly outcomes.

Encouragingly, 128 containers were reported as recovered, reflecting improved response coordination and collaboration following incidents.

The long-term trend continues to show that container losses remain a very small fraction of total global container movements.
While year-to-year figures fluctuate, often driven by extreme weather and isolated events, the overall trajectory remains stable and significantly below earlier peak years.

World Shipping Council remains committed to transparency, data-driven safety improvements, and collaborative action across the supply chain.
The introduction of mandatory IMO reporting requirements from 2026 marks a major step forward in enhancing global data accuracy and supporting further safety improvements.

Key findings and results
  • 1,478 containers lost at sea in 2025, out of over 280 million transported (0.0005%)
  • 128 containers recovered, the highest recovery figure recorded to date
  • Losses driven by one major incident (640 containers)
  • Extreme weather events and fire remain leading causes of container loss
  • Key drivers of 2025 losses

Impact of major incidents

The 2025 data again demonstrates that annual totals are heavily influenced by isolated high-impact events:A single vessel loss incident accounted for 43% of containers overboard (640 containers), significantly increasing the annual total.
A handful of additional incidents involving severe weather, stack collapse, or cargo shift contributed notable losses that drove up the annual total.

This pattern is consistent with previous years where major incidents, rather than widespread systemic issues, drive annual fluctuations.

Weather and ocean conditions

Weather remains a key factor in container loss incidents, and 2025 saw challenging conditions across several major shipping routes.

While the total number of storms globally was not significantly higher than average, the year was marked by:Warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures, which can intensify storms and increase wave energy.
Periods of more severe and less predictable weather, particularly in the North Atlantic and North Pacific.
Regional conditions that created difficult operating environments, including strong winter storms and unusual ocean patterns.

These factors increased the likelihood of incidents when vessels encountered heavy weather, even if overall storm numbers were not elevated.

Operational and incident-specific factors

In addition to weather, several operational factors contributed to losses, including:
  • Fire-related incidents
  • Cargo shift and stack collapse in rough seas
  • Individual vessel incidents, including groundings and total losses
As in previous years, container losses typically result from a combination of factors, with challenging weather conditions often acting as the trigger.
Credit: WSC
Container loss trend


The number of containers lost at sea continues to fluctuate year-to-year, reflecting the impact of isolated large-scale incidents.
The increase in 2025 reverses the sharp decline observed in 2022–2024 but remains consistent with historical variability driven by major incidents.

The full dataset since WSC started its surveys show:
The highest recorded loss remains 2013, with 5,578 containers
The lowest recorded loss was in 2023, with 221 containers

Every container loss incident presents a risk to the environment, seafarers, shippers’ cargo and to the ship, and we will continue to work systematically to prevent them.
Nevertheless, despite periodic spikes, the overall trend continues to demonstrate that container losses are rare relative to the scale of global trade.

Recovery trends

For the third consecutive year, we are also gathering data on the recovery of containers.
In 2025, 128 containers were recovered, compared to minimal recoveries in previous years.

This increase suggests improved tracking and response capabilities, as well as enhanced coordination and collaboration between ocean carriers and coastal authorities.

Regulatory shift

To remind, the Maritime Safety Committee, at its 108th session, adopted amendments to SOLAS Chapter V (Resolution MSC.550(108)), introducing a requirement to report freight containers lost at sea or observed drifting. 
In parallel, the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC), at its 81st session, adopted amendments to Article V of Protocol I of MARPOL (Resolution MEPC.384(81)), establishing reporting procedures for lost containers aligned with SOLAS regulations V/31 and V/32.  

Monday, June 29, 2026

West Antarctica is missing way too much ice


Photograph : Sebnem Coskun/Getty images

From Wired by Graham Readfearn
This story was originally published by the Guardian and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

Temperatures have climbed up to 45 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, stopping ice from forming in the dead of Antarctic winter.

ANTARCTICA’S WEST COAST is missing an area of winter sea ice the size of France, sparking concerns for threatened penguins other marine life and global sea levels.



The Bellingshausen Sea is off the coast of West Antarctica. (NASA)
 
One expert said the loss of ice in the Bellingshausen Sea was “depressing” and the failure of ice to form could have intensified a heatwave over the continent’s peninsular last week that saw daytime temperatures peak at 15.4 degrees Celsius which is more than 20 degrees Celsius above average.

It’s winter in Antarctica, when sea ice expands rapidly around the continent peaking in September.

But satellite observations showed the Bellingshausen Sea—on the west side of the Antarctic peninsular and which by June would usually be covered by ice—was almost completely ice free.

Scientists said the region was missing about 650,000 square kilometers (250,000 square miles) of sea ice, compared with the average between 1991 and 2020.
That is an area about the size of France and almost tenfold the size of Tasmania.

“I’m concerned. It’s depressing,” said Dr Will Hobbs, an Antarctic sea ice expert at the University of Tasmania with the Australian Antarctic Program Partnership.

“It is remarkable that we are in June, and there is no sea ice there.”

He said this was the third time in four years that sea ice had been very low in the region.
“I don’t think we will see sea ice there any more.
It’s done,” he said.

He said the loss of sea ice was likely linked to changes in the ocean and scientists were trying to understand if global heating was a factor.

He said the region was important for krill—a critical part of the food web for species in the region.
Krill would usually be hiding from predators under the ice in winter, where they graze on algae.

On June 10 there was about 11.4 m square kilometers of sea ice around the entire continent compared to a long-term average for that date of 12.6 m square km.

Dr. Phil Reid, who monitors Antarctic conditions at Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, said the Bellingshausen Sea had seen “incredible coastal exposure” in winter and summer in recent years.

He said just to the area’s west were the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers—the continent’s major contributors to ice loss and sea level rise.

Floating ice shelves in front of the glaciers could break up faster if protective sea ice is absent for longer periods, he said, and this could then speed up the loss of ice from the glaciers, pushing up global sea levels in the future.

The Bellingshausen Sea’s coastline was the site of tragedy in late 2022 when thousands of emperor penguin chicks died during a “catastrophic breeding failure” in four colonies.

View image in fullscreen-Satellite observations show a large area of sea ice in west Antarctica over the Bellingshausen Sea has failed to appear this winter. 
Deep red indicates at least a 50% loss in sea ice compared with the 1991 to 2020 average. 
Illustration: Phil Reid/Bureau of Meteorology/National Snow and Ice Data Center
 
That event contributed to UN advisers pushing the species up two categories to “endangered” on its international threatened species list earlier this year.

Dr. Peter Fretwell, a scientist at the British Antarctic Survey who has been documenting the penguin’s decline, said the current loss of sea ice in the region was “a serious problem for penguins, especially emperors.”
“Sea ice is forming too late and breaking up too early.
It leads to reduced breeding success and longer trips to molting grounds.”

Adelie penguin numbers were also falling and crabeater seals were being forced to migrate in summer to find stable ice, he said.


The extent of ice at Antarctica, as of June 11, 2026. (Supplied: NSIDC)
 
This month the Antarctic peninsular witnessed an extreme temperature spike over several days.
Hobbs said while “nobody has done the numbers” it was reasonable to suggest the heat wave was “made worse by the lack of sea ice.”

Sea ice would usually help to cool any warmer airflow entering the region from the north, he said.

Officials at Argentina’s national weather service, Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, said the country’s Esperanza base at the peninsular’s northeastern tip had experienced an “extreme temperature event” that peaked on June 5 and 6.

Maximum temperatures of 15.4 degrees Celsius and 13.4 degrees Celsius, respectively, were recorded at a period when average daily maximums were minus 6.2 degrees Celsius.
The previous June temperature record at the base of 13.3 degrees Celsius was set on June 12, 1998.
 
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Sunday, June 28, 2026

France & misc. (SHOM) layer update in the GeoGarage platform

 
210 nautical raster charts updated (including 10 new editions & 3 new charts)