Thursday, May 14, 2026

Iran is using tiny ‘mosquito’ boats to shut down the Strait of Hormuz


Photograph: Morteza Nikoubazl / Nurphoto / Getty Images

From Wired by Vincenzo Leone

Iran’s traditional naval fleet has been almost completely destroyed by US-Israeli raids.
But Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has deployed a fleet of small vessels that is crippling every passageway.

IN THE STRAIT of Hormuz, Iran has developed an asymmetrical naval strategy that is crippling the passage of container ships.
This “hemostat” uses guerrilla tactics, after Iran's “traditional” fleet was almost entirely destroyed by US and Israeli attacks.
No longer able to rely on specialized military ships, Tehran is using an unconventional force made up of dozens of small military vessels armed with missiles, machine guns, and drones.
Quick and nimble, this “mosquito fleet” is capable of assaulting ships carrying tons of cargo.

In mid-April, US president Donald Trump had reassured the public in a post on Truth Social that Iran's hemostat fleet did not pose a major problem for the US and Israel.
“The Iranian Navy lies at the bottom of the sea, completely annihilated: 158 ships,” Trump wrote.
“What we didn't hit are their small numbers of what they call ‘fast attack boats’ because we didn't consider them a big threat.” 
Less than 10 days later, on April 22, an Iranian attack conducted with the small vessels led to the seizure of two large container ships leaving the Strait of Hormuz, changing the course of the war.

Enter the Hemostat Fleet

“Iranian fleets of small boats were created during the Iran-Iraq war, with the purpose of disrupting oil tankers in the Persian Gulf that supported the Iraqi war effort,” says Michael Eisenstadt, an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy where he is director of the Military and Security Studies Program, who compares them to the “US torpedo squadrons that disrupted enemy naval traffic in the Pacific Ocean and Mediterranean Sea during World War II.”

“The effectiveness of Iran's fleet of small boats comes from their numbers and their use in swarms, which makes them difficult to counter,” Eisenstadt adds.
“Iran has over a thousand of these small boats armed with rockets, machine guns, anti-ship missiles, and mines.” In this way, Tehran can pose a serious naval threat even though much of its military fleet has been destroyed.

“As Iran showed in March, it can close the straits by launching only a few dozen drones against oil tankers and cargo ships in the Persian Gulf,” says Eisenstadt, who has also worked as an analyst for the US military in addition to a 26-year career in the US Army as a reserve officer, with missions in Iraq and Israel.

Between the number of vessels at its disposal and the thousands of support drones for air operation, Iran possesses “much more than it needs to effectively force the closure of the strait,” Eisenstadt says.
Then there is its proximity to the Strait of Hormuz, which allows Iran to systematize its deterrence against the passage of container ships and oil tankers.
“It is therefore important to see the Iranian threat as multidimensional, involving a diverse range of capabilities to exploit its favorable geographic location,” he adds.

An Islamic Revolution Guards Corps vessel allegedly engaged in an operation to seize ships attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz, April 21, 2026.
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images Meysam Mirzadeh
 
A Tactic in the Hands of the Pasdaran

Iran's “conventional” navy is separate from the navy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, also known as the IRGC or the Pasdaran.
But a parallel chain of command has allowed Tehran to develop a diverse guerrilla doctrine, even in their respective operational areas of responsibility.

The hemostat fleet is used by the Pasdaran.
As the Hudson Institute, a conservative think tank, explains in a report authored by analyst Can Kasapoglu, “most of the Iranian conventional platforms sunk or put out of commission by allied attacks belonged to … Iran's regular armed forces,” Kasapoglu adds: “In contrast, the Islamic Republic's Revolutionary Guardians maintain their own asymmetrical naval component, designed specifically for combat operations in the Strait of Hormuz, much of which has remained intact.”

As Eisenstadt explains, “the IRCG navy, which operates in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz, is still fully active and has always been the most important organization when it comes to threatening maritime traffic across the Strait.”

In addition to the vessels themselves, Iran has developed a system—from coastal bases and hidden infrastructure to radar and the integration of mines, drones, and civilian vessels—to support them.
“This overall architecture is designed to impose friction and attrition rather than to seek or win a decisive naval engagement,” reads the Hudson Institute report, which details the “maritime component being reinforced with a robotic element consisting of unmanned systems,” and some vessels “configured as explosive-laden suicide crafts.”

Creating further instability is the armaments factor.
Not to be forgotten, Eisenstadt says, “are the cruise missiles and anti-ship ballistic missiles that, together with the other assets, create a layered network of systems capable of striking targets throughout the Gulf.” 
Add in Iran's Shahed drones, which can strike ships in the Gulf while supporting the guerrilla operations of the hemostat fleet, as yet another threat in the Strait of Hormuz.

A Revolutionary Guards boat attacks a naval vessel during a three-day naval exercise in the Gulf, April 22, 2010.
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

Guerrilla Warfare at Sea

Amid the threat of US air raids, “Iran keeps many of these boats in reinforced underground tunnels along the Persian Gulf coast, and these tunnels and the boats inside them will likely prove difficult to destroy,” Eisenstadt says.

Iran's apparent objective in the Strait of Hormuz is to create an increasingly unstable situation.
“Strategically, this approach seeks not control but denial,” reads the Hudson Institute report.
“It complicates access to key waterways, raises the economic and military costs of intervention, and sustains coercive leverage without escalating into full-scale war.”

And there is another problem: These remaining available systems “constitute a military architecture that resists decisive destruction,” the analysis says.
“These assets can be contained, but not fully annihilated.” 
Experts say it is difficult to eliminate these boats because you have to find where they are hidden.

“It would require a sustained campaign to destroy this fleet,” Eisenstadt says, adding: “So unless the US is willing to land ground forces to conduct raids inside this complex network of tunnels, I don't think they will be able to destroy these capabilities.”

Links :

Wednesday, May 13, 2026

LR assesses AI navigation technology in live vessel trial with Orca AI

Screenshot from the Orca bridge screen
 
 
The trial assessed the performance of an AI-based navigation platform, focusing on its role in enhancing situational awareness and supporting human decision-making at sea.
Lloyd’s Register (LR) has tested Orca AI's AI-powered navigation system during a live vessel trial.
The assessment focused on how AI-based computer vision can support human decision-making in real operating conditions, particularly in complex navigation scenarios such as congested waters and reduced visibility.
The trial was conducted on a feeder containership during a five-day voyage through some of the Mediterranean’s busiest shipping lanes, from the port of Gioia Tauro in Italy to Marsaxlokk, Malta.
The work tested the system’s object detection performance alongside radar, AIS and visual watchkeeping.
During the voyage, the platform detected close-range and low-signature targets that were not always visible on traditional systems, supporting watchkeepers in challenging scenarios such as non-AIS vessel and small craft encounters and night operations.
LR Ship Performance Specialist Han Beng Koe joined the vessel as the onboard assessor, providing real-time feedback on usability and performance while the system was evaluated against established navigation references.
Koe said: “As the onboard assessor, I observed the demonstrated capabilities of AI-based computer vision within the operational environment.
This provides a clear indication of the performance potential and scalable application of emerging technologies in maritime navigation systems.”
Dipali Kuchekar, Product Manager (Marine and Offshore) at LR, said: “This significant project serves as an important reference point for data-driven system evaluations.
It reflects our shared commitment to the adoption of novel technologies, at a time when decarbonisation and autonomy are becoming increasingly intertwined.”
Dor Raviv, Orca AI CTO and Co-founder, added: “What this trial shows is that AI-assisted navigation is no longer a future concept, it is already delivering measurable value in live operations.
More than 1,200 vessels using Orca AI are evidence that earlier and more accurate detection, lead to more-informed decisions on the bridge, which lead to safer navigation.
Trials like this pave the way for broader AI adoption in our industry on the journey towards autonomous shipping.”
The project combined performance metrics with structured human factors input to evaluate both detection accuracy and usability on the bridge.
It also introduces a structured approach for evaluating enhanced situational awareness systems, using precision and recall metrics alongside crew feedback to reflect real-world usability.
This framework aims to support shipowners, technology developers and regulators as AI becomes increasingly adopted in maritime operations.
The collaboration also included targeted human factors workshops delivered by LR to support Orca AI’s approach to gathering and using crew feedback.
The sessions, overseen by Stephanie McLay, Team Lead - Human Factors, LR, focused on best practice in usability research, helping ensure that insights from seafarers operating in demanding conditions are captured, analysed and acted upon effectively.
“From a human factors perspective, it is not just about what the technology can do.
It is about how effectively it supports the human operator.
These workshops demonstrated how structured feedback and user-centred design can play a critical role in shaping safer and more usable AI-enabled navigation systems,” McLay said.
 
Watch how Orca AI’s AI-based navigation safety platform increases situational awareness of fleets and helps their crews navigate safely in high risk conditions like congested waterways and low visibility
 
Trial information

The evaluation of the Orca AI platform was conducted on a feeder containership sailing from the port of Gioia Tauro in Italy to Marsaxlokk, Malta, by way of Bar in Montenegro.
Covering a total distance of 828 nautical miles, it included complex navigation scenarios such as congested waters near ports, the Strait of Messina and the Marsaxlokk anchorage, as well as open-water sailing.
Orca AI’s SeaPod computer-vision units, mounted on top of the vessel’s bridge, features a fixed sensor heads equipped with day and thermal cameras providing up to 360 FOV.
The SeaPod serves as digital watchkeeper that detects, classifies and estimates the distance to relevant objects in real time, with the system display positioned centrally in the bridge console.
A total of 98 observations were collected at intervals of roughly 30 minutes in open water, reducing to 5 minutes in heavy-traffic areas.
The majority (63%) were conducted under congested conditions.
The dataset covered 739 relevant targets including small, unlit or low-Radar-signature vessels that traditional Radar failed to identify.
Benchmarking for evaluating detections was provided by ground truth data generated through a combination of the Orca AI system’s screen and recordings, Radar, AIS data via ECDIS and visual observations.
The SeaPod achieved 94% Precision (635 “True Positive” detections out of the 739 targets) and 98.6% Recall, detecting nearly all relevant objects.
There was zero system downtime during the voyage.

Tuesday, May 12, 2026

The quest to save Outer Banks homes

 August 2025
 
From WP by Brady Dennis, John Muyskens, Kevin Crowe and Daniel Pullen

Brady Dennis, a North Carolina native, has covered erosion and flooding across the Southeast for years, most recently reporting from Buxton in March as homes were being moved back from the surf.
Daniel Pullen, a five-decade Hatteras Island resident who currently lives in Buxton, has been cataloging storms and the Outer Banks transformation for 20 years.
John Muyskens and Kevin Crowe analyzed satellite and aerial survey data from Boston and Puerto Rico, respectively.

BUXTON, N.C.
— One afternoon in late October, as Lat Williams stood near the roiling ocean, he called his wife, Debby.
“I think we’re going to lose the house,” he told her.
“I think it’s going down within the hour.”
For weeks, they had watched with dread as the ocean claimed their neighbors’ homes along this erosion-battered stretch of beach, where once-towering dunes have been leveled, entire sections of streets have disappeared and at least 19 homes have collapsed since September.
At their place on Cottage Avenue, the clawing surf had left their septic system exposed.
Floating debris knocked out part of their foundation, and the churning tides sent water rushing under the house.
“Suddenly, we were beachfront,” Lat, 71, recalled.
“We were on the beach,” said Debby, 68.
“We were in the beach.”

 Buxton beach with the GeoGarage platform (NOAA nautical raster chart)
 
Buxton beach with the GeoGarage platform (NOAA nautical ENC vector chart) 
 
It wasn’t always this way.
Debby still has a photo from the day her parents bought the home back in 1980, the two of them smiling beside a “for sale” sign.
Healthy dunes and hundreds of feet of beach stretched out behind them then.
Four generations have enjoyed the modest cottage, where Lat and Debby retired and have lived full time since 2017.
“I always wanted to live here,” Debby said.
“I love the ocean, even when she tries to do us in.”

Debris from fallen houses is piled up on the beach in Buxton.
Multiple homes collapsed into the ocean in Buxton as strong winds from Hurricane Imelda ravaged the coastline on Sept. 30. (George Huffmon via Storyful) 

Survey data obtained by The Washington Post from RCOAST, a company that uses aerial 3D mapping, reveals how tides began to encroach on the homes of the Williamses’ neighbors as Hurricane Erin passed offshore in August.
Weeks later, waves from Hurricane Humberto claimed nearby homes, sometimes within minutes of one another.
The survey data also shows how the Williamses’ home sat atop a higher part of the beach as of August, a seemingly safe distance from the water.
Cross-sections of the beach at the Williamses house from August and October of 2025.
In August, the house is surrounded by small dunes.
In October, much of the sand has been carried away, leading to as much as a 9 foot drop in beach elevation.
 

Much of sand would soon wash away.
Debris from nearby homes damaged their house’s newly exposed foundation.
Contractors raced to shore up the structure until it could be moved.
The numerous home collapses, including six in a 24-hour period in October, generated national headlines and inflicted trauma — to homeowners who have seen investments crumble, to a community dependent on the tourism that attracts people to this picturesque corner of the coast, and to the beaches choked by mountains of debris.
But the disaster of recent months has also forced hard questions about what comes next, what to try to protect — or not protect — and how to prepare rather than merely react when disaster strikes.
It has left many property owners desperate for a beach nourishment planned to begin later this month, even as they wonder how long that reprieve might last.
And the episode has shown the kinds of quandaries researchers say other coastal areas will have to confront as rising seas and stronger storms further encroach on human development.
“We didn’t end up with threatened oceanfront structures overnight,” said Dave Hallac, superintendent of the Cape Hatteras National Seashore.
“And we probably won’t find a solution overnight.”

‘No buffer at all’

Sand fills a broken swimming pool after multiple storms and broad erosion. 

To Reide Corbett, an oceanographer and the executive director of the Coastal Studies Institute at East Carolina University, Buxton has become a “poster child of coastal change.”
There is no shortage of opinions here about what has hastened the vanishing of the shoreline and led to the demise of so many houses.
Was a deteriorating terminal groin, a structure that juts from the shore south of town and is designed to trap sand, a key factor? What about the succession of storms this winter? Have rates of erosion sped up?
Corbett acknowledges there’s no single cause but rather a complex web of factors, including the underlying geology and the nature of ocean currents.
One piece is clear: The area faces some of the highest erosion rates in North Carolina and possibly all of the East Coast.
“Over the last decades, the beach has retreated to where the shoreline is at their doorstep,” Corbett said.
“There is no buffer at all anymore.”
The homes built decades ago on these spots once were far from the ocean.
But a dynamic landscape like the Outer Banks is meant to shift and move, and constant change is normal, said Laura Moore, a coastal geomorphologist and the director of the Coastal Environmental Change Lab at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
“Barrier island coastlines have to move landward and build upward to stay above sea level as it rises,” Moore said.
That’s part of a natural and necessary process, driven by storms that deposit sand atop the islands.
Scientists such as Corbett say the steady rise in sea levels over recent decades presents an additional challenge to homes and infrastructure along this vulnerable coastline.
According to federal tide gauge data, relative sea levels have risen eight inches near Buxton in the last 30 years, a trend that shows no signs of slowing.
For every inch the ocean rises, water can reach farther inland at high tides and during storms.
“It’s becoming more of a problem,” Corbett said.
“It’s not going away.”
The constant thrum of erosion often happens with little fanfare, Hallac said — until it begins to butt up against human development, as it has in Buxton.
“The ocean is finally catching up to them,” he said.
“They are highly exposed to one of the most energetic ocean areas in the country.”

Buying time?

Cullen Gaskill removes a wire from an erosion-threatened house as a rainbow stretches across the sky behind him. 

A reprieve, one many locals are desperate to see, is scheduled to arrive soon.
The project to widen more than two miles of beach along Buxton and the neighboring village of Avon, as well as repair a crumbling jetty, is scheduled to take several months.
The price tag for taxpayers: roughly $50 million, paid for with a mix of federal and local funds.
How much time it will buy is uncertain.
The most recent renourishment in Buxton, in 2022, was supposed to provide five years of protection.
It didn’t.
A chart titled "Buxton's vanishing beach" showing satellite-derived data on the monthly average distance between the Williamses' house and the average water line.
This stretch of shore has been retreating at an average rate of five feet per year.

 
A Post analysis of satellite-derived shoreline data from CoastSat found that in one particularly vulnerable spot, erosion had narrowed the beach back to its pre-nourishment width within about two years.
“It became apparent in year two that it wasn’t going to last the whole five years,” Dare County Manager Bobby Outten said of the 2022 project.
As a result, officials decided to undertake the upcoming beach nourishment a year earlier than originally planned.

A Cape Hatteras Electric Cooperative employee stands on an exposed septic tank in October to inspect a meter on an endangered house.

The past two nourishment projects, including another completed in early 2018, cost a combined $38 million, according to data maintained by the American Shore and Beach Preservation Association.
“What’s happening in Buxton is not a surprise,” said Christy Swann, founder of RCOAST, the firm that uses 3D mapping to assess coastal erosion.
Here, as in many places, she said, erosion is happening more quickly than decisions about how to adapt to and manage it.
“When I look at Buxton, I see it as more of what’s to come,” she said.
Corbett believes that beach replenishments often “provide a false sense of security,” as the shoreline inevitably erodes again, sometimes rapidly.
“Nourishment has become a crutch,” he said.
“What are you buying that time to do?”
Instead, he said, communities should use that time to move imperiled structures out of harm’s way and prepare for future changes.

 
A recently moved house on the beach in Buxton, bottom right, stands alongside others slated to be shifted back from the encroaching ocean. 
 
 
Lat Williams tends a plant in his recently relocated home last November. 
 
Locals wait on a covered porch for another house to fall on Oct. 12. 

Outten agrees that merely pumping more sand isn’t a sustainable strategy.
“In the long term, we’ve got to have some other tools, because the cost of nourishment is growing faster than our revenues are growing,” he said.
One challenge he and others cite is North Carolina’s decades-old ban on permanent erosion-control structures, such as sea walls, which scientists say can worsen erosion farther down the beach.
The law has long been a source of frustration for property owners and some local officials.
“Our ability to be proactive, to avoid some of the problems erosion creates, is very much limited in North Carolina,” Outten said.
The home collapses of recent years in the Outer Banks have spurred pressure to revisit the policy, and a state-backed science panel has been assessing alternatives for managing oceanfront erosion.
As that policy fight shows, Corbett said, state and local leaders must now confront a difficult but critical question.
“What are we trying to protect?” he said.
“Are we trying to protect those homes and that property? Or are we trying to protect those beaches and the people who come for recreation?”
The upcoming beach nourishment’s stated goal is to protect the main artery that runs the length of the Outer Banks, not to defend exposed homes.
The precarious nature of Highway 12, which snakes along the fragile coastline, has long been a concern both for the state and for the local communities that depend on it.

 
Barry Crum, owner of Crum Works Inc., has been moving one imperiled house after another from the oceanfront in recent months, and helping shore up others at risk.
“It’s like triage,” said the Buxton native.
“I’ve never seen anything like this.”
 
A 2023 task force report on threats to the road included long-standing “chronic erosion” and flooding and overwash from storms.
But it also found that “sea level rise, and projections for a higher frequency of damaging flooding events, will exacerbate coastal hazards in the future.”
Flooding, overwash and bad weather have forced officials to close sections of the road 79 times across Hyde and Dare counties since 2012, according to a Post analysis of data from the North Carolina Department of Transportation through early February.
The closures added up to 9,290 hours, or more than a year in total.
Those closures have real-world consequences, Outten said.
People can’t get to medical appointments.
Ambulances can’t access certain areas.
Grocery and fuel trucks can’t reach towns.
“The list goes on and on,” he said.
“And these closures aren’t always like one day at a time.
… It’s a big economic problem.”
There is broad agreement that the current situation is untenable.
Evidence of that lies in nearly every direction.
You can find it in a parking lot in the shadow of the Cape Hatteras lighthouse, where massive debris piles remind passersby of all that has been lost.
You could see it in the tenuous state of Buxton’s beachfront this spring, even after officials used mechanized rakes to sift through the sand and volunteers organized multiple community cleanups.
Long after houses had fallen, once-buried septic tanks sat exposed.
Busted concrete swimming pools were full of sand.
On one March afternoon, pieces of dinner plates, broken tiles, shards of glass and an old paint roller lay among the ruins.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
Billy Dillon, whose family has owned and operated the Outer Banks Motel for more than 70 years, can recall other times when storms and erosion caused damage.
But nothing like these past months.
The collapses have brought “a tremendous amount of bad publicity,” he said, along with “a lot of cancellations because there is no beach.”
His mother, Carol Dillon, still arrives to work most days at the hotel she started with her husband in 1955.
Now 97, she blames the National Park Service for not keeping what she said were long-ago assurances to maintain the beach along this majestic seashore.
“I feel like the government let us down,” she said, adding that she hopes the planned renourishment can hold the sea at bay.
“I’m hoping it’ll last until I leave this Earth.”

Last fall, the home of Lat and Debby Williams was slowly moved several blocks to a new lot.
(Lat Williams)
Lat and Debby Williams, for their part, engineered their escape just in time.
A contractor was able to brace their house until it could be moved in early November.
They purchased another lot several blocks inland, and crews picked up the home and slowly moved it along the Buxton streets, dodging trees and power lines.
An annotated aerial photo showing the Williamses' house being moved.
The graphic shows the original location of the house and the route along Old Lighthouse Road to its new location.

 After clearing land, and paying for a new septic system and new pilings; after pouring concrete and rebuilding their stairs and deck; they were able to return home in mid-February after six months of staying in friends’ homes.
Amid what Lat Williams called so much “profound” loss, the couple feels grateful.
They tacked up a sign out front that reads, “Answered Prayers.”
They estimate that the hasty retreat cost them roughly a quarter-million dollars.
Was it worth it? Should they stay in Buxton for the long haul?
Hard questions to answer in this moment, though they feel certain that if they hadn’t moved the house, it wouldn’t be standing.
From the deck in their new spot, the couple can see the ocean that once thrashed at their doorstep.
The sound of the waves is more distant now.
But they have a clear view of the homes still teetering at the water’s edge, including those that a crew was busy moving, one by one, farther from the sea.

 
Lat and Debby Williams spend time on the porch of their newly relocated house.

Methodology

To determine the change in relative sea level near Buxton, The Post analyzed monthly tide gauge data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for relative mean sea levels for the gauge at Oregon Inlet Marina near Buxton.
A linear regression model was applied to the annual means for the gauge to determine the trend from 1994 through 2025, the time period when the gauge had the most complete data.

Monday, May 11, 2026

Meet Rassvet, Russia’s answer to Starlink


Rassvet vs. Starlink: Has the satellite showdown between Moscow and Washington begun?
Joel Kowsky/Nasa via Getty Images

From Wired by Lucia Bellinello

With the launch of the first 16 satellites, Russia begins construction of a network for satellite internet that aims to cover the entire country by 2030.
But getting there won’t be easy.


IN LATE MARCH, Russian company Bureau 1440 brought into low orbit the first 16 broadband internet satellites of the new Rassvet constellation, already dubbed by observers and local media the Russian answer to SpaceX's Starlink.
It's an ambitious global internet project that experts say could conceal much broader strategic goals, with functions including military and communications control.

The launch took place on March 23 at 8:24 pm Moscow time from the military's Plesetsk Cosmodrome using the Soyuz-2.1B launcher, and marked the first step in building an infrastructure that is expected to have at least 300 satellites by 2030.

“The launch marks the transition from the experimental phase to the creation of a communication service,” Bureau 1440 announced on Telegram.
“The Bureau 1440 team completed this path in 1,000 days, which is the time between the launch of the experimental satellites and the production satellites.”

The goal of the project is to provide broadband internet access with speeds of up to 1 gigabit per second for each user terminal and a signal latency time of up to 70 milliseconds.

The system has been repeatedly compared to Starlink, which in the war in Ukraine proved to be a vital tool for troop communications.
Indeed, according to various reports, Kiev managed to disrupt the communications of some Russian units that relied on Starlink by imposing restrictions on unauthorized terminals.

In this context, then, the Rassvet project appears to be an attempt to build a sovereign satellite infrastructure that can potentially be used by civilians and military personnel alike.

Gunning for It

The dual-use nature of the Rassvet project is also apparent from some operational details.
The launch of the satellites was carried out not by the Roscosmos space agency but by the Russian Defense Ministry through the Plesetsk Cosmodrome.

A few days after the launch, Russian president Vladimir Putin called the launch of the new constellation “a great event,” while Roscosmos director Dmitry Bakanov said the Cosmodrome would suffer “attempted attacks” on the day of the launch.

“Like all satellites intended for communications, they are also capable of military functions, and given the high effectiveness of Starlink's use on the battlefield, Rassvet will also find use there,” says Vitalij Egorov, a space expert and host of the YouTube channel Otkrytyj Kosmos Zelenogo Kota, or The Open Universe of the Green Cat.

The size of the Rassvet terminals—several times larger and heavier than those in Starlink—may cause some limitations to the network, Egorov says.
“Still, the fact that Rassvet's ‘private satellites’ were launched from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome shows the great interest the Russian Defense Ministry has in the success of this project.
The Russian Ministry of Communications is also allocating funds for the project, which means that the state is directly participating in the Rassvet project.”

Independent Russian press reports funding for Rassvet of 100 billion rubles (about $1.34 billion) from the Russian Ministry of Communications, with the company reportedly ready to invest another 300 billion rubles.

Rassvet vs. Starlink

“Rassvet satellites are similar to those of Starlink,” Egorov says.
“They are a constellation of satellites for internet transmission, but it would be more accurate to compare them more to the OneWeb system than to Starlink, because Rassvet is intended for commercial companies, state-owned companies, and government customers.
In addition, Rassvet plans to reach … about 350 satellites by 2030, while Starlink already has thousands."

The real challenge for Bureau 1440, then, will not be so much putting the first satellites into orbit as industrializing the system on a large scale, Egorov says.
To get to a constellation of about 300 satellites in the next few years, the company would need to be able to produce one or two satellites a week—a pace the Russian space industry has never achieved.
So far, Egorov notes, only Starlink and OneWeb have been able to sustain such serial production.

The other challenge concerns the development of lighter and cheaper terminals.
Until an accessible and easily deployable infrastructure exists, it will be difficult to consider Rassvet a true equivalent of Starlink.
Even by the most optimistic estimates, it will take years and dozens of launches before the network can offer stable coverage, even limited to Russian territory.

Another difference concerns the orbital configuration.
Starlink is primarily designed to provide coverage to the most densely populated areas.
For this reason, the number of satellites transiting at high latitudes is relatively small.

Bureau 1440, on the other hand, has chosen a near-polar orbit, with an inclination of 81.4 degrees.
This means that the satellites will fly over the territory practically from south to north, covering the whole of Russia.
The signal will be stable in both Crimea and Chukotka and polar areas, suggesting that the infrastructure is designed to serve institutional and corporate customers in remote or otherwise difficult-to-access regions.

According to Bureau 1440, the constellation operates in low Earth orbit at an altitude of about 800 kilometers (around 500 miles), while Starlink's satellites are placed on orbits of about 550 kilometers (341 miles) or less.

Pulling the Strings

As reported by Novye Izvestija, Bureau 1440 was established in 2020 as a division of Megafon, then named Megafon 1440 (1440 being the number of orbits completed around the Earth by the first artificial satellite, Sputnik 1 in 1957, before reentering the atmosphere in January of the following year).

In 2022, the company changed its name and was incorporated into Iks Holding, which, as the independent Dozhd channel reports, would also be involved in the development of surveillance systems and internet blockers, which are used in Russia to block online traffic and messaging platforms such as WhatsApp and Telegram.
On security grounds, in fact, Moscow has begun blocking or severely slowing down the internet and messaging platforms, with the aim of disorienting Ukrainian drones, limiting free access to information for Russian citizens, and pushing users to the state-run Max messaging system, which allows authorities to access users' personal data.

Finally, one of Iks Holding's top managers, Dozhd reports, is the son of Russia's first deputy director of intelligence, Boris Korolev, suggesting that there is a direct link to the government.
It's a detail that experts say reveals the true nature of the project better than any official statement: not just a constellation of satellites, but an infrastructure for digital sovereignty—and for the wars of the future, which will also be played out 500 miles above our heads.

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Sunday, May 10, 2026

Whale speaking