Friday, September 25, 2026

Greenland’s oil dispute is testing Arctic sovereignty

 
Photo: DeLaine Mayer

From ArcticToday by DeLaine Mayer

In July, an excavator and 15 shipping containers arrived at the Nerlerit Inaat port in eastern Greenland.
According to Danwatch, the shipment is the first wave of equipment for Greenland Energy’s planned exploration campaign in Jameson Land.
The company has said another 300 containers and a drilling rig are scheduled to arrive in September.
Greenland’s Ministry of Business and Mineral Resources, however, says the project does not yet have the approvals required to begin drilling.

What began as a permitting dispute is evolving into an early test of how the U.S. is pursuing its expanding strategic interests in Greenland, placing the project at the complicated intersection of energy policy, Arctic strategy, and Greenlandic sovereignty.
 
Greenland Energy’s Exploration Campaign

In 2021, Greenland announced that it would stop issuing new oil and gas exploration licenses, but said that existing licenses would remain in force under their original terms.
One of those licenses is now held by Greenland Energy, a U.S.-listed exploration company pursuing two exploratory wells in Jameson Land.

This spring, Greenland Energy raised approximately $70 million in a public offering.
The company has since contracted an Arctic drilling rig, secured integrated well planning and logistics services from Halliburton, and begun mobilizing equipment for its two-well exploration campaign.
The company estimates that its license area contains as much as 13 billion barrels of gross unrisked prospective resources.
The same filings make clear that these are not reserves, and that no modern exploration well has yet demonstrated that Jameson Land contains commercially recoverable oil.

Greenland Energy’s drilling schedule targets its first exploration wells for the fourth quaerter of 2026 through the first quarter of 2027.
Greenland’s Ministry of Business and Mineral Resources, however, claims the license holder did not have approvals for the July equipment mobilization, putting its Q3 activities at odds with the local approvals process.
It’s worth noting that large energy projects rarely progress in a straight line.
Financing, procurement, logistics and permitting often proceed on separate timelines.
Drilling contracts can be negotiated before exploratory campaigns begin, and it’s not uncommon for equipment to be ordered before regulatory reviews conclude.

Alternative:

The challenge is that in Greenland, decisions that would ordinarily be viewed as technical regulatory questions are now being interpreted through a much broader strategic lens, given the Trump Administration’s declaration of interest and prospective ownership of the Danish autonomous territory.
That political posture places additional pressure on institutions designed to evaluate exploration projects on legal, environmental, and commercial grounds.

Greenland’s Energy Resources and Global Energy Geopolitics

Louisiana Governor and Special Envoy to Greenland Jeff Landry recently stated that Greenland “could be exporting 2 million barrels of oil a day.
Think about what kind of pressure that would relieve in the Strait of Hormuz.” At that level of production, Greenland would rank among the world’s larger oil exporters, producing the equivalent of roughly 15 percent of current U.S.
crude oil and about 2 percent of global supply.
No public development plan supports production at that scale, however.

Landry’s comments have come alongside the administration’s broader posture toward Greenland.
President Trump has repeatedly raised the prospect of U.S.
control of the island, while Landry’s appointment as special envoy was itself met with opposition from Greenland’s government, due to American annexation threats.
Greenland Energy executives themselves have indirect ties to President Trump and the administration, including Carol Craig, whose defense firm is involved in the planned Golden Dome system (itself argued as part of the rationale for U.S.
control of Greenland
), and Kenneth Griffen, who holds a 9.3% stake in the company and donated $1 million dollars to the 2025 inaugural committee.

Against that backdrop, an American envoy publicly presenting Greenland’s prospective oil resources as a solution to U.S.
energy security carries significance beyond ordinary commercial advocacy.
 
 
A fjord in East Greenland.
Photo: Rune Kongsro


The administration is publicly treating Greenland’s prospective petroleum resources as an American strategic asset even though Greenland has not authorized their development, turning ordinary commercial momentum into political pressure on Greenland’s regulatory process.
That approach may advance near-term U.S.
energy interests, but undermines the institutional sovereignty on which a durable U.S.-Greenland relationship depends.

Resource Geopolitics in the High North

The Greenland case illustrates a broader shift in Arctic competition.
Commercial activity, infrastructure, and regulatory institutions are increasingly becoming arenas of strategic competition alongside more traditional military and diplomatic tools.

Russia, for instance, has expanded its military posture across the Arctic while strengthening its control over the Northern Sea Route (which was available for energy shipping to Asia earlier this season due to faster melting ice).
And Russia’s cooperation with China has grown since the invasion of Ukraine to include energy projects, shipping, and coast guard exercises.

While Putin stated Greenland’s ownership was of no concern to Russia, Trump’s “Greenland ownership” rhetoric has deepened the tension between the U.S. and its European allies, a chasm which Putin can capitalize on.

China, meanwhile, declared itself a “near-Arctic state” in 2018 and has pursued a Polar Silk Road linking resource development, infrastructure, and emerging northern shipping routes.
Beijing’s direct economic footprint in Greenland remains limited, as the Minister of Business noted a preference for Western partnerships, but Chinese companies have previously sought stakes in Greenlandic mining projects and bids for strategically sensitive infrastructure.
The Kvanefjeld project is one example: Chinese rare earth company, Shenghe Resources, is the second-largest shareholder in the Australian company behind the project, an investment some in Washington have seen as a “backdoor for Chinese encroachment in the Arctic.”

Greenland sits inside this competition because geography and resources overlap.
Its location anchors missile warning and surveillance systems across the North Atlantic, while its deposits of rare earths (ranked 8th in the world for reserves) and other critical minerals have attracted attention as the U.S. and its allies seek alternatives to Chinese-dominated supply chains.

Yet Greenland’s experience with critical minerals also demonstrates the distance between geological potential and strategic supply.
Despite substantial resource deposits, commercial development has been limited by infrastructure constraints, high costs, and Greenland’s own regulatory decisions.
The Kvanefjeld project, for instance, has seen its own exploration and development phases halted, as Greenlandic authorities denied an extension of its exploration license under the current legislative framework.

Kvanefjeld highlights the fact that Greenlandic regulatory decisions have consequences for foreign capital, and that Greenlandic sovereignty is intertwined with resource management.
Greenland’s own Arctic Strategy report on foreign, security, and defense policy is aptly titled “Nothing about us without us.”

There is no evidence that Greenland Energy is acting at Washington’s directive.
Nor is such coordination necessary for a commercial project to acquire strategic significance.
American officials citing a private company’s prospective resources as evidence of Greenland’s importance to U.S. energy security has already blurred the line between commercial advocacy and national security.

Commercial momentum may appear advantageous for Washington: a U.S.-linked project could expand Western access to Arctic resources while limiting opportunities for competitors.
For Greenland, however, the same momentum may narrow the political space in which regulators operate.
Its decision to delay or reject development risks being geopolitically interpreted as hindering U.S. strategic interests.
Meanwhile, Russian and Chinese activity gives Washington good reason to favor Western investment.

Sovereignty as Strategy

Congress, concurrently, has been redefining U.S. Arctic policy.

In June, Sens. Lisa Murkowski and Jeanne Shaheen introduced a bipartisan resolution “reaffirming congressional engagement with Arctic allies”, including the importance of Indigenous peoples’ inclusion in Arctic governance and decision-making.
The resolution highlights Arctic security, infrastructure, telecommunications, scientific research, Indigenous engagement, and cooperation with allies as core U.S. priorities.

Following the resolution, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee advanced S.4708, the Arctic Security and Diplomacy Act.

The Trump administration has good reason to support Western investment in Greenland.
But its approach could work against that goal.
Tying individual resource projects to U.S. strategic interests gives Greenlanders another reason to view resource development through the lens of American pressure, leveraging its own institutions to push against American investment.

Petroleum development is only one component of a much larger regional agenda, in this light.
American interests in Greenland long predate the current exploration campaign.

Greenland’s geography is central to Arctic defense, North Atlantic security, and telecommunications infrastructure.
Pituffik Space Base has been in use since 1943, under a Danish-American defense agreement, today supporting U.S. missile warning and space operations.

Defense, space operations, telecommunications, critical minerals, and scientific research all overlap in Greenland.
Those interests do not depend on whether Jameson Land ultimately becomes a producing oil field, yet much of the public discussion has become dominated by the progress of this single exploration project.

Congress should reinforce Greenlandic self-determination and regulatory sovereignty as explicit components of U.S. Arctic policy.
That may run counter to the administration’s current approach, but further alienating Greenland and European allies carries its own strategic cost: a more divided West leaves greater room for Russia to consolidate the Northern Sea Route as an energy corridor and for China to expand its Arctic economic presence.

Thursday, September 24, 2026

France & misc. (SHOM) layer update in the GeoGarage platform

 
188 charts updates & 1 new chart added

Ovit grounding: ECDIS incompetence and inexperienced crew in vital positions


Credit: UK MAIB
 
Complying with the ISM Code is at least a prerequisite for a safe navigation.
As part of its series on ISM Code-related accidents, SAFETY4SEA focuses on the grounding of the Maltese-registered tanker ‘Ovit’ in the Dover Strait, off UK, in September 2013, that serves as a great example of how minimum ISM breaches can lead to undesired events.

Accident details: At a glance
  • Type of accident: Grounding
  • Vessel(s) involved: Ovit (chemical tanker)
  • Date: 18 September 2013
  • Place: Dover Strait, UK
  • Fatalities: No
  • Pollution: No

The incident

In the early morning hours of 18 September 2013, the Maltese-registered tanker ‘Ovit’ was transiting the Dover Strait, while on passage from Rotterdam, Netherlands, to Brindisi, Italy, carrying vegetable oil.
The intended route through the Dover Strait was prepared using the ship’s ECDIS.

At 0230, the chief officer arrived on the bridge and took over from the second officer as the officer of the watch (OOW).
The deck cadet, who was the assigned lookout, joined him.

Ovit was following an autopilot controlled heading of 206° at a speed of between 12 and 13 knots.
The OOW selected the scale on the ECDIS display that closely aligned with the 12 nm range scale set on the adjacent radar display.
He then sat in the port bridge chair where he had a direct view of both displays.

At about 0300, the heading on the autopilot was adjusted to 225°.
As Ovit approached the Varne Bank, the deck cadet, who was standing on the starboard side of the bridge and using binoculars, became aware of flashing white lights ahead.
He did not identify the lights or report the sighting to the OOW.

At 0417, Ovit passed close by the Varne Light Float. From 0432 the ship’s speed slowly reduced until the vessel stopped when it grounded on the Varne Bank at 0434.

The ship remained aground for just under 3 hours.
 

There were no injuries and damage to the vessel was superficial.
There was no pollution.

Ovit refloated on the rising tide and subsequently berthed in Dover.

Probable causes

The UK MAIB investigation underlined that:
The passage was planned by an inexperienced and unsupervised junior officer.
The plan was not checked by the master before departure or by the officer of the watch at the start of his watch.
The ship’s position was monitored solely against the intended track shown on the ECDIS.
Navigational marks on the Varne bank were seen but not acted upon.
 
Maris 900 ECDSIS s57 input page

The scale of the chart shown on the ECDIS was inappropriate.
The operator defined settings applied to the system were unsuitable and the system’s audible alarm did not work.
The officer of the watch’s situational awareness was so poor that it took him 19 minutes to realise that Ovit had grounded and a further 14 minutes to report the accident to Dover Coastguard.
Although training in the use of the ECDIS fitted to the vessel had been provided, the master and deck officers were unable to use the system effectively.
A Channel Navigation Information Service (CNIS) procedure, which should have alerted Ovit’s officer of the watch as the tanker approached the Varne Bank, was not followed because the procedure had not been formalized and an unqualified and unsupervised CNIS operator was distracted.
The passage through the Dover Strait was treated in exactly the same way as a passage in open water.

ISM breaches

Key ISM-related factors that contributed to the accident included:
The passage plan was prepared by an inexperienced and unsupervised junior officer.
The passage plan was not properly checked.
The deck officers were unable to safely navigate using the vessel’s ECDIS.
Master and deck officers did not implement the ship manager’s policies for safe navigation and bridge watchkeeping.
The serious shortcomings with the navigation onboard had not been identified during the vessel’s recent audits and inspections.
The SMS bridge procedures provided onboard Ovit by Ayder Tankers Ltd were comprehensive and included extensive guidance on the conduct of navigation using ECDIS.

Lessons learned


This incident is a clear example of ECDIS incompetence by deck officers.
The official investigation established that the ECDIS training undertaken by the ship’s master and deck officers had not equipped the crew with the level of knowledge necessary to operate the system effectively.

To address this, the owner company took action to ensure that ECDIS training is effectively implemented onboard and moved to computer-based training for the familiarisation of deck officers in type-specific ECDIS.

Meanwhile, it was highlighted that the master and deck officers did not implement the ship manager’s policies for safe navigation and bridge watchkeeping.
The route was not properly checked, inappropriate depth and cross track error settings were used, and the scale of ENC in use was unsuitable for the area.
Leadership issues were also raised.

‘The onboard management of Ovit was dysfunctional and the master provided insufficient leadership for a safety culture to be developed and instilled on his bridge,’ 
…the report reads.


On the aftermath, the owner directed all vessels to conduct a master-led risk assessment for navigation in the Dover Strait.

Additionally, the investigation focused on the fact that the serious shortcomings with the navigation onboard Ovit had not been identified during the vessel’s recent audits and inspections.
This was addressed with the establishment of a third-party company for provision of navigational audits of ships.

Links :

Wednesday, September 23, 2026

A comprehensive guide to marine sextant – principles, usage, and maintenance


The sextant is a valuable instrument used to determine the angle between the horizon and a celestial body like the Sun, Moon or Star. It is used in celestial navigation to find out the latitude and longitude.

From MarineInsight by  Shilavadra Bhattacharjee
 
Sextant derives its name from the Latin word’ sextus; or ‘one-sixth’, as the sextant’s arc spans 60° or one-sixth of a circle.
Octans with 45° arcs were initially used to determine the latitude.
However, Sextants were developed with wider arcs to calculate longitude from lunar observations.
They replaced octants by the latter half of the 18th century.

It consists of an arc of a circle marked in degrees. It also has a movable radial arm pivoted at the circle’s centre.
There is a telescope mounted to the framework, which is lined with the horizon.

A mirror is placed on the radial arm.
It is moved or adjusted until the celestial body is reflected into a half-silvered mirror in line with the telescope and appears to coincide with the horizon through the telescope.

The angular distance of the celestial body or star above the horizon is read from the graduated arc of the sextant.

Mainly used at sea, the tool is so named because its arc is one-sixth of a circle – 60 degrees.
It adheres to the principle of double reflection hence it can measure angles up to 120 degrees. Practically speaking, the arc of the sextant is a little over 60 degrees, and therefore the total angle measurable is about 130 degrees.

Sextant is an essential tool for celestial navigation and is also used by mariners to measure the angle between the horizon and a visible object (or two objects at sea).

Hold the sextant vertically and point it in the direction of the celestial body.
See the horizon through an unsilvered part of the horizon mirror.
Continue to move or adjust the index arm until the image of the star/sun, which has been reflected by the index mirror and then by the silvered portion of the horizon mirror, seems to rest on the horizon.

The altitude of the celestial body can be determined by reading from the scale on the arc of the sextant’s frame.

The sextant is used to measure the following:
  • Vertical Sextant Angle (VSA)
  • Horizontal Sextant Angle (HSA)
  • Altitudes

Brief History Of Sextant

A ship’s altitude above the horizon was related directly to the ship’s latitude. Mariners began to invent tools for measuring these factors to aid in navigation.
One of the simplest was the kamal used by Arab navigators from the 6th century onwards.

A 2-inch long rectangle board was used.
A string with evenly spaced knots was attached to it. This arrangement was called a kamal.
The navigator held the string using his teeth and moved this board farther from his body, aligning its bottom edge with the horizon and the top with the object, generally the Polaris or the north star.

The number of knots between the mouth and the board gave an idea of the relative height.
Although kamal was quite useful, it was not precise enough and, by the 13th century, gave way to the astrolabe and the mariner’s Quadrant.

The Quadrant was popular with Portuguese explorers that travelled south along the African coast to search for a route to the Orient.

When the seafarers reached close to the equator heading south, Polaris disappeared below the horizon. Hence, in the southern seas, mariners used another way to find their latitude.
Per instructions from Prince Henry of Portugal, by 1480, Portuguese astronomers had found a way to determine the latitude using the position of the Sun when it moved north and south of the equator with changing seasons, what we now refer to as its declination.

To put it simply, the navigator could calculate the Altura or altitude and latitude by using his Quadrant to take the altitude of the Sun when it came to its highest altitude at local noon and then make a correction for the position of the sun north or south of the equator per the date.

Columbus used it extensively on his voyages to the New World.
He marked off the latitudes of places he visited, such as Lisbon, Serra Leoa, Cabo Verde and other places he might have landed.

Also, it was common for navigators during those times to record the altitude of the Polaris in degrees at ports where they wished to return again.
Hence, lists of alturas of many ports were published to guide the seafarers up and down the coasts of Africa and Europe.

Principle of the Sextant
 
When a ray of light is reflected by a plane mirror, the angle of the incident ray is equal to the angle of the reflected ray; when the incident ray, reflected ray and the normal lie on the same plane
When a ray of light suffers two successive reflections in the same plane by two plane mirrors, the angle between the incident ray and the reflected ray is twice the angle between the mirrors
 
Different Parts Of A Sextant

A sextant is shaped in the form of a sector (60 degrees or 1/6th of a circle).
It is the reason the navigational instrument is called a Sextant (the Latin word for 1/6th is Sextans).
The sector-shaped part is called the frame.

A horizontal mirror is attached to the frame, along with the index mirror, shade glasses (sunshades), telescope, graduated scale and a micrometre drum gauge.

How Does A Sextant Work And How To Use It?


Watch this video to understand how to use a sextant.




Navigation Sextant – Readings ON and OFF the arc

The normal graduations of the arc, to the left of zero, extending from 0 to 130 degrees, are referred to as ON the arc.
To the right of 0 degrees, the graduations extend for a few degrees and are referred to as OFF the arc. When reading OFF the arc, graduations of the micrometer should be read in the reverse direction (59 as 1′, 55 as 1′ and so on).

Errors of the Sextant

The errors can be classified as

1. Adjustable Errors (adjustable onboard), and 
2. Non-adjustable Errors (not adjustable onboard)

Adjustable Sextant Errors
  • The Perpendicularity error : This is caused when the index glass is not perpendicular to the plane of the instrument. To check for this, clamp the index bar about the middle of the arc, and holding the sextant horizontally, with the arc away from you, look obliquely into the index mirror till the arc of the sextant and its reflection on the index mirror is simultaneous. If in alignment, the error does not exist. If not, turn the adjustment screw at the back of the index glass until they are aligned. 
  • Side Error: This is caused by the horizon glass not being perpendicular to the plane of the instrument. Clamp the index bar at 0 degrees 0.0′. Hold the sextant vertically and look at the heavenly body. Turn the micrometre one way and then the other while looking at the body. The reflected image of the body will move above and below the direct image and should pass exactly over it. If the reflected image passes to the left or right of the direct image, a side error exists. This error can be removed by turning the second adjustment screw (the top screw behind the horizon glass) until the true and reflected horizons appear in the same line.
  • Index Error: This is caused if the index mirror and the horizon glass are not exactly parallel to each other when the index is set at 0 degrees 0.0′. Basically, this is the difference between the optical zero of the sextant and its graduated zero, termed OFF the arc if the optical zero lies to the right of the graduated zero and termed ON the arc if the optical zero lies to the left of the graduated zero. There are three methods of obtaining the index error of a sextant:

A) By observing the horizon: 
Clamp the index at 0 deg 0.0′ and, holding the sextant vertical, look at the horizon.
The reflected image and the direct image should appear in a perfect line.
If not, turn the micrometer until they coincide exactly.
The reading of the micrometre, ON or OFF the arc, gives the IE

B) By observing the star or planet: Clamp the index at 0 deg 0.0′ and holding the sextant vertical, look at the star/planet. The reflected and direct image must coincide. If not, turn the micrometer till they do. The reading of the micrometre, ON or OFF the arc, gives the IE

C) By observing the Sun:
Set the index at about 32′ ON the arc. Hold the sextant vertically and look at the Sun, using shades.
The reflected image of the Sun would appear below the direct image.
Turn the micrometer until their closer limbs just touch.
Note reading ON the arc.
Set the index at about 32′ OFF the arc and look at the Sun.
The reflected image of the Sun would appear above the direct image.
Turn the micrometer until their closer limbs just touch.
Note reading OFF the arc.
The name of IE is the name of the reading having a higher numerical value.

The error of Collimation: 
This is due to the axis of the telescope not being parallel to the plane of the instrument.
The telescope is attached to the sextant in such a manner that it cannot tilt.
These modern sextants are, therefore, not provided with any collimating screws



Non-Adjustable Errors Of Sextant
 
  • Graduation Error: Due to the inaccurate graduation of the main scale on the arc or of the micrometre/vernier
  • Centring Error: Caused if the pivot of the index bar is not situated at the geometric centre of the arc. This can be caused due to a manufacturing defect or due to careless handling.
  • Shade Error: The shades should be so mounted that their glass surfaces are normal to the rays of light passing through them. If not, the distortion would result. The greater number of shades used, the greater the chances of distortion.
  • Optical Errors: Caused by prismatic errors of the mirrors or aberrations in the telescope lens
  • Wear on the rack and worm: This causes a backlash, leading to inconsistent errors. Wearing down of the worm can be due to lack of lubrication, the presence of dust particles, careless handling.
Dip

This is the angle at the observer between the plane of the observer’s sensible horizon and the direction of his visible horizon.
A dip occurs because the observer is not at sea level.
The value of the dip increases as the height of the eye of the observer increases.
The values of dip are given on the cover page of the nautical almanac and in nautical tables (Nories) as a function of the height of the eye.

Pointers on the use of a sextant
  1. Always check the errors before use
  2. Focus the telescope while looking at the horizon and make a mark on the circumference of the stem
  3. During use, hold the sextant steady. For this, stand with feet slightly apart for balance with hands holding the sextant steady
  4. While observing the altitude of a celestial body, remember to swing the sextant to the other side; the body will appear to move along the arc. Measure the altitude at the lowest point on this arc
  5. Stand as close as practicable to the centerline of the ship
  6. Use appropriate dark shades while observing the Sun
  7. If a backlash error exists, remember to rotate the micrometer in one direction only
  8. Altitudes of stars and planets should be taken during twilight
  9. Nighttime sextant observations should be avoided as far as practicable. The strong moonlight gives the illusion of a good horizon which is most probably false
  10. While observing the HSA, set the index at zero, look at the object on the right through the telescope, gradually swing the index around and finish while facing the object on the left
  11. When measuring VSA, look at the top of the object, set the index at zero and look at the top of the object. VSA = height of the object in meters          1852 X Tan VSA


Care and maintenance of a sextant
  1. Do not put too much stress on the index bar when grasping a sextant
  2. Never touch the arc. It will smear it. These aren’t oleophobic per se
  3. Ensure that the worm and rack are clean
  4. Coat worm and rack with Vaseline when not using it for too long
  5. Mirrors, lenses and shades should be wiped clean with a soft cloth
  6. After each use, gently wipe the index mirror, horizon glass
  7. Put it in the box when not using it
  8. Do not bump the sextant anywhere
  9. Avoid exposure to sunlight
  10. Keep sextant stowed away from direct sunlight, dampness, heaters or blowers

The sextant is an expensive, precision instrument which should be handled with utmost care.

Reference:
Principles of Navigation by Capt. Joseph & Capt. Rewari, The Marine Sextant by Capt. H. Subramaniam

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

From Yanbu to Sohar: Tracking Saudi Arabia’s alternative oil routes

 
(Al Jazeera)

From AlJazeera by Hanna Duggal

The world’s second-largest crude exporter is rerouting crude via dark shipments and ship-to-ship transfers off Oman.


Saudi Arabia’s oil exports took another blow last week when drone attacks knocked out part of the country’s East-West pipeline, halting oil flow and removing 4-5 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil from global supply.

It is unclear how long repairs will take, although The Associated Press estimates three to five weeks, citing two regional officials.

The 1,200km (746-mile) pipeline connects the kingdom’s main oil-producing fields in the east of the country with Yanbu port on the Red Sea coast in the west, allowing Saudi crude to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, which has largely remained closed since the United States-Israel war on Iran began on February 28.

As the world’s second-largest oil producer, Saudi Arabia’s ability to keep crude flowing has significant consequences for global energy markets.
Al Jazeera asked experts what alternatives remain, how the disruption could affect buyers worldwide, and what it means for the kingdom’s revenues.
 
 
(Al Jazeera)

Exports down more than 70 percent


Total Saudi crude loadings, which topped 7.5 million bpd in January and February, had fallen to about 2.3 million bpd in August and roughly 2.1 million bpd in the first half of September – a drop of more than 70 percent.

Analysts caution the real loadings figure may run somewhat higher, since shuttle tankers crossing Hormuz with tracking switched off aren’t always captured in vessel data.

How can Saudi Arabia export its oil?


Saudi exports are built around two coastal passages – the Gulf in the east, where crude moves out through the Strait of Hormuz, and the Red Sea in the west, where it can travel either north through the Suez Canal and Sumed Pipeline, or south through the Bab al-Mandeb strait.
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Route one: The Strait of Hormuz

Before the crisis, most Saudi crude left on ships through the Strait of Hormuz, the 39km (24-mile) shipping choke point connecting the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, and the open sea beyond.

Saudi Arabia was exporting about 7-8 million bpd of oil, with most seaborne volumes loading at the terminals of Ras Tanura and Ras al-Ju’aymah, and the former averaging about 5.4 million bpd in 2025.

The route is the most direct and economical way to reach Asia, which buys the bulk of Saudi crude exports.


 
Dark ships and ship-to-ship transfers

With the western pipeline route closed and the Red Sea’s southern route hostile, Saudi Arabia has little choice but to push exports back through the Gulf – despite the restrictions, higher costs, and physical risk of attack that come with transiting Hormuz, experts say.
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“With the East-West pipeline offline, Saudi’s options are limited.
The first is shipping more crude from its Gulf terminals through the Strait of Hormuz, including ship-to-ship transfers outside the strait, such as off Sohar in Oman,” according to Rishi Rajanala, research specialist in Oil Americas at LSEG Data & Analytics.
 
 
A satellite image of side-by-side ships at sea, off the coast of Sohar, Oman, on June 9, 2026
[Airbus DS/Handout via Reuters]

“Gulf producers have already been moving part of their exports this way, but volumes depend on tanker availability, insurance and freight costs, and remain well below pre-war levels.

“The second is drawing on crude already stored on the west coast and at Egypt’s Ain Sukhna and Sidi Kerir terminals, which can continue to supply Europe through the Sumed Pipeline, but only for as long as stored volumes last. The third is a phased restart of the pipeline itself, depending on the extent of the damage.”

Richard Matthews, director of consultancy and research at Gibson Shipbrokers, a London-based shipping services company, said transiting back through Hormuz will “further fuel higher freight costs for Middle East exports and create additional inefficiencies”, adding, “we do not know how long Yanbu loadings will be suspended for, but it doesn’t look to be a quick fix.”

One way to reduce that risk is for tankers to go “dark” by switching off their AIS transponders – used in maritime navigation to identify and track vessels – as they transit Omani coastal waters. 
“They will transit with transponders off and likely coordinate with the US Navy but still face the risk of attack as everyone else does,” Matthews said.

If the outage extends beyond a few weeks, the balance shifts further: Stored volumes would run down, and any crude that cannot move through the Gulf would have to be stored or left unproduced, adding pressure to production levels already well below pre-war volumes in August.

Rahul Choudhary, vice president of Upstream Research at Rystad Energy, an independent energy research company, said Hormuz-route exports increased in September to more than two million bpd in the first two weeks, roughly one million bpd above August.

“We expect Strait of Hormuz exports to rise further in the second half of the month, already evident in Aramco offering additional loadings to Asian refiners out of Sohar.
Saudi Arabia can lean further on dark tanker activity in the coming days to offset Yanbu losses,” he added.

Route two: The East-West pipeline to Yanbu

Most of Saudi Arabia’s crude is produced in the east, and Aramco’s East-West pipeline links the Ghawar and Abqaiq processing facilities there to Yanbu port on the opposite side of the country.

It was built in 1981, during the Iran-Iraq war, precisely to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz in a crisis of the kind Saudi Arabia and other Gulf exporters are now facing.

It runs at a maximum capacity of about 7 million bpd.

Crude shipped from Yanbu has two ways to travel onward through the Red Sea – south via Bab al-Mandeb or north via Suez.

South, via Bab al-Mandeb

Shipments heading south to Asia must pass through the Bab al-Mandeb strait – the second-best route after Hormuz.

But Iran-backed Houthi forces launched a rapid military offensive in September, seizing the Yemeni port of Mocha, the coastal town of Dhubab, and Mayyun Island, and now control the strait.
They have also declared a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia, prohibiting vessels from loading or discharging cargo at Saudi ports.
 
(Al Jazeera)

North, via the Suez Canal


With the southern exit blocked, tankers wishing to reach Asia must instead travel north.

Oil tankers can pass through the Suez Canal directly, or discharge their cargo at Egypt’s Ain Sokhna terminal on the Red Sea into the Sumed pipeline, which carries it overland across Egypt to a Mediterranean port near Alexandria, where it is reloaded onto tankers bound for Europe.

Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) are too large to transit the canal at full draft – the maximum safe depth when fully loaded – so they instead partially discharge at Ain Sokhna and reload the remaining volume at the Mediterranean terminal before continuing.

According to HSBC Global Investment Research, Aramco had planned a similar “shuttling” operation before Yanbu was suspended, using smaller Suezmax tankers to move crude between Yanbu and Ain Sokhna.
 
 
A composite satellite image shows a trail of smoke rising, as Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis said on July 25, 2026 that they carried out operations against Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu [European Union/Copernicus Sentinel-2/Handout via Reuters]

From there, reaching Asian buyers means sailing west through the Strait of Gibraltar and around the Cape of Good Hope – a journey of about 13,140 nautical miles (equivalent to about 24,335km) that dwarfs the roughly 3,370 nautical miles (6,241km), 10-day journey via Hormuz, adding almost a month to the voyage and making shipping far more expensive while tying up tankers for longer.

But some experts expect the East-West pipeline to resume operations sooner, offering hope that Saudi oil exports could return to more sustainable levels.

Choudhary said: “We expect the pipeline to restart within a couple of weeks at a reduced 40-60 percent capacity, flowing around 2.5-3 million bpd.
With Saudi likely to prioritise refinery runs, only about 0.5-1 million bpd would be left for export, meaning Yanbu crude exports fall by 2.5-3 million bpd even after a partial restart.

“Part of that gap can be covered by higher Hormuz liftings and increased dark-fleet activity, bringing the net impact on Saudi crude exports down to roughly 1.5-2 million bpd.”

Why trucking is not a viable option

One option conspicuously absent from Saudi planning is trucking – and the maths explains why. The kingdom typically exports 5-7 million bpd.
Replacing even a single day’s volume by road would require roughly 25,000 to 35,000 fully loaded tanker trucks, each carrying about 200 barrels.

Lined up bumper-to-bumper, that convoy would stretch nearly 500km (310 miles) – roughly the distance from Riyadh to the nearest coast.

A single VLCC, by comparison, carries about 2 million barrels in one voyage, and the pipeline itself moves millions of barrels daily with minimal manpower – which is why, even with its main export arteries compromised, Saudi Arabia’s fallback plan runs through ships, not roads.


The impact on global markets

Oil prices have so far been cushioned by stockpiles and releases from strategic reserves, with Brent crude trading at about $70-$90 a barrel in recent months.
But the longer regional disruptions continue, the more we may see prices rise, with Brent crude currently trading above $105 a barrel.

“The market is pricing a significant loss of supply, with the length of the outage as the main uncertainty. Saudi authorities have not given a timeline for the repair, and estimates reported so far range from a few days to eight weeks for a full recovery,” Rajanala, the research specialist at LSEG, said.

What does this mean for buyers of Saudi oil?

Saudi Arabia was, until recently, the world’s largest oil exporter.

Its main buyers are Asian and European refiners, including China, which bought 22 percent of Saudi Arabia’s oil, followed by South Korea (14 percent), Japan (13 percent), India (10 percent) and the US (5 percent).



Those buyers are already feeling the shutdown.
Cargoes scheduled for European refiners are being cancelled, forcing many companies to look elsewhere for their oil, including turning to the US, North Sea and West Africa.

“Some European refiners with cancelled Saudi cargoes are already sourcing crude from the North Sea and seeking cargoes from the Americas and Central Asia, while Asian buyers are being offered alternative loadings from the Gulf,” Rajanala said.

“The missing barrels are also higher sulphur crude. Saudi grades such as Arab Light and Arab Medium are difficult to replace, like-for-like, because the alternatives available from the US, Kazakhstan and much of the North Sea are generally lower in sulphur content. That puts particular pressure on refiners configured for Middle East crude, many of them in Asia, which takes the largest share of Saudi exports.”

What does this mean for Saudi Arabia’s revenues?


Despite higher oil prices benefitting Saudi Arabia, they are being offset by an inability to physically export at normal volumes.

The government depends heavily on dividends, royalties and taxes from Aramco, with its crude and petroleum products sales accounting for more than half of government revenues, generating 606.5 billion riyals ($162bn) for state coffers in 2025.

Sustained disruption would cut deep into public finances.
UBS Research now forecasts the 2026 budget deficit reaching 5 percent of gross domestic product against an original target of 3.3 percent.

Louis Vincent-Gave, from Gavekal Research, an independent research firm, noted that “the bombing of Yanbu, combined with the bombing of the East-West pipeline, and the Houthi takeover of the Bab el-Mandab sea passage, suddenly places large question marks on the ability of Saudi oil to keep flowing through the Red Sea to the rest of the world. And if Saudi Arabia cannot keep pumping oil to the rest of the world, the Saudi government could end up selling assets – US treasuries? Stakes in private equity funds? Artificial intelligence investments? – to pay its immediate bills.”
 
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