A trio of tropical cyclones in the Pacific

IMAGE OF THE DAY FOR SEPTEMBER 4, 2026

From NASA Earth Observatory

The Pacific was buzzing with storms while the Atlantic was notably quiet.

When hurricane forecasters released their seasonal outlooks in spring 2026, the El Niñobrewing in the Pacific contributed to predictions of below-normal activity in the Atlantic basinbut above-normal activity in the northeastern and central Pacific basins.
In early September, near the climatological peak of hurricane season, those spring outlooks were on target, with the eastern Pacific buzzing with activity and the Atlantic notably quiet.

As of September 3, the Northeast Pacific had produced 15 named storms and six hurricanes, well above the norm for that point in the season.
The Atlantic basin, meanwhile, laboring under unfavorable wind shear conditions, had produced just five named storms and no hurricanes.
El Niño typically enhances hurricane activity in the eastern and central Pacific basins because of the unusually warm water temperatures it brings to those parts of the ocean.
It tends to suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin by shifting large-scale circulation patterns in a way that makes it harder to sustain storms there.

At 1:14 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (20:14 Universal Time) on September 1, NASA’s EPIC (Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera) on the DSCOVR (Deep Space Climate Observatory) satellite captured an image of three tropical cyclones churning simultaneously in the Pacific, along with one in the Atlantic.
A band of clouds and thunderstorms associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is visible to the south of the storms.
The spacecraft was nearly 1 million miles from Earth and just shy of 93 million miles from the Sun when the image was acquired.

 

 Visualization with NavimetriX

 

The trio of storms in the Pacific were Lowell, Karina, and Marie.
Of the three, Lowell became the strongest, with winds reaching category 5 strength for several hours on September 2.
Around the same time, Karina, spinning a few thousand kilometers to the east, achieved category 4 strength, a rare case of category 4 and 5 hurricanes occurring simultaneously in the area.
Marie, spinning southwest of Baja California, was still a tropical storm when the image was acquired but was strengthening as it moved northwest.

In the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Edouard was visible to EPIC over Louisiana and Texas, shortly after the short-lived storm made landfall.
It brought torrential rains and strong winds that downed trees and power lines.
Some areas received 15 to 24 inches (38 to 61 centimeters) of rain, according to National Weather Service meteorologists.

As of September 3, the Atlantic basin's total accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index was 4.4, about 9 percent of normal for that date, according to statistics compiled by Colorado State University meteorologists.
Meanwhile, the Northeast Pacific basin's ACE was 130, about 50 percent above normal.
The ACE index incorporates both the intensity and longevity of storms, making it easier to compare individual storms and seasons.

Several NASA Earth-observing platforms provide data that can aid in emergency preparedness before landfall and damage assessment and response afterward.
Use the “Events” tab on NASA's Worldview browser to track current hurricanes and explore related NASA data products.

Autonomous sonar survey locates wreckage of Pan Am flight that prompted airline safety reforms

Autonomous sonar survey locates wreckage of Pan Am flight that prompted airline safety reforms

Part of the plane’s logo is still visible. 

Air/Sea Heritage Foundation and Deep Sea Vision

 

From Hydro

 

Nearly 75 years after it crashed, the wreckage of a Pan American Airways aircraft has been located and surveyed nearly 2,000 feet (610m) below the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Puerto Rico.

A Kongsberg HUGIN autonomous underwater vehicle, equipped with advanced sonar, detected the aircraft's fuselage and tail during the first pass of the search area, with a follow-up photographic survey later confirming the identification.

The expedition was led by the Air/Sea Heritage Foundation and Deep Sea Vision, a subsidiary of Eco Minerals Inc., in partnership with the Discovery Channel's Expedition Unknownand several other organizations.

The Clipper Endeavor, a Pan Am DC-4, went down on 11 April 1952 following multiple-engine failure shortly after takeoff, forcing the pilot into a violent water landing.

The aircraft was carrying 64 passengers and five crew bound for New York.

Everyone survived the initial impact, but as the plane rapidly sank, passengers struggled to locate life vests and rafts.

Of the 69 people on board, only 17 survived.

The confusion that followed became a catalyst for new regulations requiring better flotation equipment on aircraft and pre-flight briefings on how to use it.

Map drawn by air force pilots

The breakthrough came after researchers uncovered records from a public hearing in Puerto Rico, including a map drawn by air force pilots who had witnessed the crash.

Combined with historical weather data from the time, this narrowed the search area to roughly 10 square nautical miles of seabed.

An earlier attempt to locate the wreckage in 2024 was abandoned due to poor weather, but the team was determined to return before the crash's 75th anniversary.

The wreckage, found broken into two sections, was located during the search area's first pass on 2 June. The subsequent photographic survey revealed that the Pan Am logo and the aircraft's name were still visible on the fuselage, providing remarkably intact confirmation of the find.

"We are all stunned and elated by this discovery, yet also humbled to remember what happened in that place so long ago," said Russ Matthews, president of the Air/Sea Heritage Foundation.

Imagery of the Clipper Endeavour wreckage, discovered more than seven decades after the aircraft disappeared. (Image courtesy: Air/Sea Heritage Foundation and Deep Sea Vision)

 

Links :

• BBC : Wreckage of Pan Am plane that shaped aviation safety found 74 years on
• Smithsonian : This 1950s Airplane Disaster Prompted the Flight Safety Demonstrations Passengers Know Today. Searchers Just Found the Wreckage in the Atlantic Ocean 

America’s lack of shipbuilding prowess is a problem for its navy

 

All hands on deck

photograph: getty images

 

From The Economist 

China’s commercial shipyards provide it with a big advantage

“The floating bulwark of our island” is how William Blackstone, an 18th-century British politician, described the Royal Navy.
These days it is America, not Britannia, that rules the waves.
Yet the country’s naval dominance is increasingly under threat, as China has built a floating bulwark of its own.

China’s efforts to control what it regards as its territorial waters (despite the objections of its neighbours) and project power globally have demanded a fast-expanding navy.
This has grown in short order from a small coastal-defence force to become the largest navy in the world, according to a report in 2020 by what was at the time America’s Department of Defence.
China’s 350 “battle force” vessels—including battleships, aircraft carriers, minesweepers and auxiliary craft—outnumbered America’s 293, a figure that had barely increased in two decades.

China’s plans to expand its armada to 435 ships by 2030 seem plausible.
America’s hopes of adding 58 to its fleet by 2031—and the construction of a “Trump Class” nuclear-powered battleship, proposed by the president last year—are far-fetched.
That is because China has something America sorely lacks: its rise as a naval power has been underpinned by a vast commercial-shipbuilding industry.

After the second world war Europe’s world-leading shipyards were eclipsed first by Japan, using cheap steel and labour along with new manufacturing methods, then by South Korea.
More recently it is China that has come to dominate.
Over the past 25 years its share of global shipbuilding tonnage has risen from 5% to over 50%.
America’s commercial-shipbuilding industry, by contrast, barely registers, hampering the ability of its navy to keep pace.

Matthew Funaiole of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a think-tank in Washington, explains that China’s commercial-shipbuilding industry is “closely intertwined” with its navy.
The fusion of military and civilian activities keeps Chinese shipyards active.
If commercial orders slow, for example, dry docks can accommodate naval work, improving the return on investment.
And although warships are far more complex than, say, container ships, the two share much in common, from steel structures and pipework to engines and propellers.
The underlying “platform” across vessels has many commonalities, points out Marzio Forlini of Bain, a consultancy.

That is why Europe, which maintains a vibrant commercial industry for specialist vessels—such as cruise ships, icebreakers and support craft for offshore energy—still has a successful naval sector that not only supplies its own forces but exports around the world.
Civilian shipyards provide more than just capacity, notes Michael Potter of Accenture, another consultancy.
They are where the essential skills needed to incorporate weapons systems, radars and other bits of defence kit are honed.
Welding, pipe-fitting and cable-pulling a commercial vessel prepares labour forces to work on complex naval ships as well.
Pierroberto Folgiero, boss of Fincantieri, Europe’s biggest shipbuilder, agrees that the two industries are highly complementary, pointing to manufacturing skills, the availability of shipyards and overlapping supply chains.
Mr Folgiero notes that the cruise ships which are Fincantieri’s speciality are hugely complicated, requiring amenities such as power plants and water systems to support 10,000 people (and 20 restaurants).
The Italian argues that if governments want naval shipbuilding, “you have to cultivate—you have to protect—civilian shipbuilding”.

In America, however, past efforts to do so have backfired.
The Jones Act, a measure introduced in 1920 to propel the domestic shipbuilding industry, has instead acted as an anchor.
It obliges transport between domestic ports to be conducted on American-built vessels (with American crews).
The result has been insufficient competition and spiralling prices: vessels manufactured in America can cost many times a similar foreign-made one.
The Jones Act—which has been temporarily suspended to allow foreign tankers to help transport oil in a bid to lower petrol prices in America—is a big part of the reason why in 2025 the country accounted for only 0.03% of global tonnage.
America’s lack of commercial-shipbuilding prowess has proved costly for its navy, whose shipyards have been unable to deliver vessels on time and on budget.
Two aircraft carriers under construction by a subsidiary of Huntington Ingalls Industries, the country’s biggest military shipbuilder, were scheduled for delivery by March 2028 but will now be over two years late.
Four-fifths of all programmes to deliver frigates, submarines and other naval vessels are behind schedule.

Politicians are aware of the problem.
The bipartisan ships for America Act proposed in 2025 aims to increase the civil fleet by 250 vessels over ten years, using subsidies and various other measures.
In February the government launched the Maritime Action Plan, which includes the creation of a $20bn fund for investments in shipbuilding.
It has also rolled out an initiative (creatively titled “Make American Shipbuilding Great Again”) to attract skills and investment from South Korea.
That effort shows some promise: last month South Korea’s three biggest shipbuilders announced 15 co-operative projects to upgrade or build new shipyards in America.
Some lawmakers have even proposed changing America’s procurement rules to allow naval vessels to be constructed by allies such as Japan or South Korea.
Most observers, however, agree there is no short-term fix to the problem.
Indeed, many are sceptical that America’s commercial-shipbuilding sector will ever again provide much support to its navy.
That ship may have sailed.

 

Links :

• CATO Institute : Washington’s Misplaced Shipbuilding Obsession
• The Atlantic : How America lost control of the Seas  
• NYTimes : America can't make what the military needs 
• The Economist : Only Asia can help America counter China’s shipbuilding prowess 

Fishers detonate a bomb every hour on one Indonesian coral reef

A bomb-fished coral reef in Sulawesi, Indonesia
The Ocean Agency

From NewScientist by James Woodford 

 

Within just a 17-kilometre radius in one Indonesian archipelago, there is an explosion almost every hour as locals practise “bomb fishing”, destroying coral reefs and decimating marine life.

Over 483 days between May 2023 and September 2024, Ben Williams at University College London and his colleagues deployed an acoustic monitoring system at Spermonde Archipelago, south-west of Sulawesi, Indonesia.

As well as being a global coral reef biodiversity hotspot, it is a location where fishers detonate explosives underwater, stunning and killing fish that can then be easily harvested.

“The sound of bomb fishing is so loud that if you’re on a dive it can shake you out of your skin,” says Williams. “You feel it more than you hear it. But if you put your head up on the surface, you likely won’t even see the boat responsible because the sound of bomb fishing travels such a huge distance underwater.”

Study area. (A) Study area within the Spermonde Archipelago, the inset indicates the location of Spermonde within Indonesia.

Shaded ocean areas represent shallow reef habitat.

The primary recording site is shown as a black dot and grey dots represent three additional recorders deployed during the localisation field test to determine the detection radius (Section 2, Figure S2). 

The dashed circle and labelled radius represent the maximum estimated area over which blasts can be detected by the recorder during the localisation experiment. 

(B) An unimpacted coral reef flat within Spermonde, located within 500 m from the primary recording site. 

(C) A coral reef flat degraded to a rubble field by extensive bomb fishing, located within 1 km of (B).

The recording equipment sat at a depth of 17 metres and was able to detect explosions inside a radius of almost 17 kilometres.

The team used AI to analyse their 3650 hours of raw audio.

They recorded 3567 explosions, or just over 23 per day while the device was underwater.

“We have shown the true extent of this practice in a known hotspot for the first time ever, which we hope will drive action to curb this destruction,” says Williams.

One of the biggest issues is that there is an illegal supply chain underpinning the bomb fishing, usually involving the sourcing of fertilisers and fuses or detonators, he says.

“In other regions these may be stolen mining explosives or even military explosives.”

Once the fishers have the explosives, enforcement at sea is sparse. “It’s like Whac-A-Mole targeting the bomb fishers.

The best approaches should tackle the illegal supply chain that gets the materials needed to make explosives to bomb fishers or sellers of these,” says Williams.

Bomb fishing is a problem across the tropics, and part of the solution is retraining locals in sustainable tourism and reef restoration, he says. “It’s been documented in 34 countries, from South America to the Mediterranean to the East Coast of Africa and South-East Asia.”

Rinaldi Gotama, who wasn’t part of the work, is currently studying at the University of Queensland, Australia, and has worked extensively with Indonesian non-governmental organisations in reefs targeted by bomb fishing.

He says he wasn’t surprised at the scale of the problem.
“I expected the frequency to be high, but studies regarding bomb fishing are relatively scarce because it is notoriously difficult to quantify,” Gotama says.

He says the new method employed by the researchers might help combat the practice. 

“If this acoustic method could be replicated elsewhere, it could help with detecting and quantifying blast fishing and help identify hotspots of activity,” says Gotama.
“That could be valuable not only for ecological monitoring, but also for targeting enforcement and evaluating whether management interventions are actually reducing blast fishing.”

Links :

• Remote Sensing in Ecology and Conservation DOI: 10.1002/rse2.70093
• Yale Environment : Bomb Fishing Is Wreaking Havoc on Indonesia’s Coral Reefs 
• Phys : AI exposes devastating impact of bomb fishing on coral reefs 

We’ll soon get a glimpse of future temperatures, thanks to this record El Niño

(Ben Noll/The Washington Post; Zeke Hausfather)

From WashingtonPost by y Ben Noll

 

It will act like a climate time machine, temporarily pushing temperatures to levels that otherwise might not be felt for a decade or so. 

 
This year’s record-smashing El Niño will do more than just shift and enhance patterns of heat, extreme rainfall and drought around the world.
It will also give the planet a preview of the late 2030s.

That’s because this El Niño will act like a climate time machine, temporarily pushing global temperatures to levels that might nototherwise be reached for another decade or so.

According to an analysis by climate scientist Zeke Hausfather that was shared with The Washington Post, there’s around a 95 percent chance that 2027 will become Earth’s hottest year on record — soaring past the last record in 2024 — because the combination of El Niño and climate change could spike global temperatures to around 1.76 degrees Celsius (3.17 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial averages.


Described as “stunning” by Hausfather, who researches and analyzes the climate for Stripe, Carbon Brief and Berkeley Earth, this value would be so far above the warming trend of the past decade that it could bring global temperatures to levels not otherwise expected under that trend until around 2037.
“I’m not sure folks have realized just how crazy the second half of 2026 and 2027 will be for global temperatures — on the back of a record-smashing El Niño event,” wrote Hausfather on X.

Next year is strongly favored to become the planet’s warmest on record

It’s currently close to a coin flip whether 2026 would become the warmest year on record, according to Hausfather’s analysis, which considers the average of several different temperature datasets. It’s possible that 2026 sets a record in some, but not all, of these datasets.
Jim Hansen, director of the Program on Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions at Columbia University, said he expects 2026 to become the warmest year, but to hold that crown only until 2027 exceeds it.

There is a much stronger signal for record warmth in 2027 because increasing air temperatures caused by El Niño lag slightly behind increasing ocean temperatures.
A global temperature of 1.76 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels in 2027 would be about 0.29 degrees Celsius higher than what’s expected based on the warming trend of the past decade.
According to Hausfather’s temperature predictions for next year, the middle 50 percent of forecasts range from 1.67 degrees Celsius to 1.85 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average.
At the high end of that range, global temperatures in 2027 would jump roughly 13 years ahead of the recent warming trend, reaching levels that might otherwise become typical around 2040. The low end would represent a 7-year-boost, to around 2034.
Hausfather said that this El Niño event is happening on top of a “strong acceleration in the rate of warming associated with continued emissions of greenhouse gases.”

Both Hausfather and Hansen also mentioned that decreasing atmospheric aerosols — which have historically offset some warming — are contributing to the acceleration in warming.
Although Hausfather expects 2028 to be cooler than 2027, he added that “human emissions are adding a permanent El Niño worth of heat to the climate system each decade.”

In other words, global temperatures in 2027 will take a big but temporary upward stairstep, and they are unlikely to permanently continue at or above those levels for now.
These temperature increases will also have consequences for atmospheric water vapor. Because the water vapor-carrying capacity of air increases at a rate of 7 percent per degree Celsius, it’s possible — if not likely — that 2027 also sets a new global moisture record, surpassing 2024. In 2025, The Post mapped the planet’s rising moisture zones and showed how they are closely connected to an increasing risk for rainfall extremes.

The role of El Niño

 

This year’s El Niño is predicted to peak in December, but its impacts will continue long into 2027. (Ben Noll/The Washington Post/ECMWF)

During El Niño, huge stores of ocean heat from the western Pacific spread eastward, eventually reaching the west coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity shifts with that warmth, transferring heat from the ocean and pumping it high into the atmosphere. Winds and atmospheric circulation then redistribute that heat beyond the tropical Pacific and around the globe, raising global temperatures.
That’s why strong El Niño events often appear as an upward stairstep in long-term plots of global temperatures.

 

Ocean temperatures compared with average during the six strongest El Niño events on record before 2026. (Ben Noll/The Washington Post/NOAA)

 

But this El Niño isn’t just going to be strong. Boosted by the planet’s long-term warming trend, it’s probably going to dwarf the six strongest that came before it in 2015, 1997, 1982, 1972, 1888 and 1877 — the latter contributing to a global famine that caused 3 to 4 percent of the global population to perish.
Ocean temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific, where El Niño’s strength is measured, have already broken records for 75 days straight.

That streak isn’t expected to end anytime soon.
Temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean may surge more than 4.0 degrees Celsius above average (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) by December, breaking the previous record by more than a degree Celsius.

The Post is tracking these records on a regular basis — and mapping the potentially significant weather ripple effects — in an El Niño tracker.
Those weather effects will vary from place to place.
But the temperature spike will briefly push the entire planet into its warmer future.
About this story
Historical global temperature anomalies from Zeke Hausfather are based on an average of six datasets, sourced from NOAA, NASA, the UK Met Office, Berkeley Earth, ECMWF and the Japanese Meteorological Agency. The chance for a record in 2026 varies depending on which dataset is used.

Sea surface temperature forecasts for this year’s El Niño, from ECMWF, were compared with averages from 1993 to 2016 to calculate temperature anomalies. Sea surface temperatures during historical El Niño events were visualized using data from the NOAA-CIRES Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project and compared with averages from 1993 to 2015 to calculate temperature anomalies. Although several of these events occurred in the distant past before the satellite era, their patterns have been reconstructed from historical records, such as ship logs, to provide an estimate of the likely conditions.

 

Links :

• GeoGarage blog : What is el Niño, and what does it mean for weather, water, and the global economy?