From Safety4Sea
The year 2024 is likely to be remembered for significant geopolitical conflict and rising tensions between several nations.
As the maritime industry operates on a global scale, it is no surprise that these tensions have had an impact on shipping.
Recent disruptions in global maritime trade have significantly affected key routes such as the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.
Recent disruptions in global maritime trade have significantly affected key routes such as the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.
These disruptions pose major risks to trade reliability and global supply chains.
Seafarers on the front lines
The escalating geopolitical tensions and maritime conflicts of 2024 have placed seafarers at significant risk, transforming critical waterways into active danger zones.
With incidents such as missile strikes on vessels, hijackings, and targeted attacks in regions like the Red Sea and the Black Sea, seafarers are increasingly caught in the crossfire.
These threats not only endanger lives but also create immense psychological stress for crew members, who must navigate volatile waters while fearing for their safety.
These threats not only endanger lives but also create immense psychological stress for crew members, who must navigate volatile waters while fearing for their safety.
The fatal attack on the MV True Confidence in March 2024, which claimed three crew members’ lives, underscores the severity of these risks.
Beyond physical harm, seafarers have also faced prolonged detentions, such as the crew of the MV Galaxy Leader, and the constant anxiety of operating in regions prone to hostilities.
To put the numbers into perspective, the Philippines’ Department of Migrant Workers (DMW) reported that 740 Filipino seafarers had been victims of attacks while navigating the volatile waters of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden up to November 2024.
As these dangers persist, protecting seafarers and ensuring their welfare must become a global priority. Stronger security measures, enhanced mental health support, and robust diplomatic efforts are essential to mitigate risks in high-conflict zones.
Beyond physical harm, seafarers have also faced prolonged detentions, such as the crew of the MV Galaxy Leader, and the constant anxiety of operating in regions prone to hostilities.
To put the numbers into perspective, the Philippines’ Department of Migrant Workers (DMW) reported that 740 Filipino seafarers had been victims of attacks while navigating the volatile waters of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden up to November 2024.
As these dangers persist, protecting seafarers and ensuring their welfare must become a global priority. Stronger security measures, enhanced mental health support, and robust diplomatic efforts are essential to mitigate risks in high-conflict zones.
Understanding the dynamics of the conflict
The geopolitical instability in the Middle East has been significantly heightened since October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched a terrorist attack in Israel, setting off a chain of regional conflicts.
The geopolitical instability in the Middle East has been significantly heightened since October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched a terrorist attack in Israel, setting off a chain of regional conflicts.
This attack not only exacerbated tensions between Israel and Hamas, but also drew in other actors, most notably Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who are backed by Iran.
Iran’s involvement has added further complexity to the situation, particularly due to its ongoing tensions with the United States.
Since November 2023, the Houthis have aligned with Hamas, targeting vessels in the Red Sea with ballistic missiles and explosives, resulting in approximately 90 reported attacks.
Since November 2023, the Houthis have aligned with Hamas, targeting vessels in the Red Sea with ballistic missiles and explosives, resulting in approximately 90 reported attacks.
This has caused a dramatic 56% decrease in vessel transits in the region, according to data from MarineTraffic.
In response, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2722 in January 2024, condemning these attacks and calling for an immediate cessation.
In response, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2722 in January 2024, condemning these attacks and calling for an immediate cessation.
However, despite international efforts, the situation remains unresolved, with far-reaching consequences.
Beyond the security threat, the conflict has also presented significant environmental risks.
Beyond the security threat, the conflict has also presented significant environmental risks.
In August 2024, the Greek oil tanker MV Sounion, carrying 150,000 tons of crude oil, was attacked by Houthi rebels, causing extensive damage and a fire onboard.
While salvage efforts were delayed, the tanker was successfully towed by September 16, averting a major environmental disaster.
This incident underscored the need for stronger protection for vessels operating in conflict zones.
Furthermore, the ongoing hostilities in the Red Sea have led to increased carbon emissions from ocean freight shipping, as vessels are forced to avoid the region and reroute through the Cape of Good Hope. According to the Xeneta and Marine Benchmark Carbon Emissions Index (CEI), emissions reached a record high of 107.4 points in Q1 2024, driven by a 63% rise in emissions for shipments from the Far East to the Mediterranean, and a 23% increase for shipments to Northern Europe.
Furthermore, the ongoing hostilities in the Red Sea have led to increased carbon emissions from ocean freight shipping, as vessels are forced to avoid the region and reroute through the Cape of Good Hope. According to the Xeneta and Marine Benchmark Carbon Emissions Index (CEI), emissions reached a record high of 107.4 points in Q1 2024, driven by a 63% rise in emissions for shipments from the Far East to the Mediterranean, and a 23% increase for shipments to Northern Europe.
Attacks on Black Sea ports and the rise of the shadow fleet
In addition to the Red Sea, the Black Sea has also seen considerable disruption due to missile attacks on Ukraine’s southern port infrastructure.
In addition to the Red Sea, the Black Sea has also seen considerable disruption due to missile attacks on Ukraine’s southern port infrastructure.
These attacks have targeted key facilities, severely affecting Ukraine’s grain exports and its overall economic stability.
Furthermore, 2024 witnessed a significant rise in shadow fleet activity, driven largely by sanctions imposed by the EU and other nations.
Furthermore, 2024 witnessed a significant rise in shadow fleet activity, driven largely by sanctions imposed by the EU and other nations.
The “shadow fleet” refers to older tankers that often lack proper maintenance, inspections, and insurance coverage.
These vessels are frequently operated under unclear ownership and attempt to evade sanctions by operating without their Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) turned on.
According to Gibson, nearly 63% of tankers built in 2009 or earlier are now engaged in grey fleet activity, often trading sanctioned goods from countries like Iran, Venezuela, and Russia.
According to Gibson, nearly 63% of tankers built in 2009 or earlier are now engaged in grey fleet activity, often trading sanctioned goods from countries like Iran, Venezuela, and Russia.
Between January and August 2024, CREA reported a 277% increase in “shadow” tanker activity in the Danish Straits compared to the same period in 2022.
Additionally, shadow fleet activity has expanded to LNG vessels.
Additionally, shadow fleet activity has expanded to LNG vessels.
The EU estimates that approximately 4-to-6 billion cubic meters of Russian LNG were shipped to third countries via EU ports in 2023.
Over 50 LNG vessels have reportedly been transferred to companies based in the UAE since mid-2023.
The economic impact on global supply chains
According to UNCTAD’s Review of Maritime Transport 2024, freight rates surged in 2024 due to rerouted vessels, port congestion, and rising operational costs.
By mid-2024, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) had more than doubled from late 2023, driven by longer shipping distances, higher fuel consumption, and rising insurance premiums.
If this surge in freight rates continues, global consumer prices could rise by 0.6% by 2025, as higher shipping costs are passed on to consumers.
The impact is especially severe for vulnerable economies that rely heavily on maritime transport.
The impact is especially severe for vulnerable economies that rely heavily on maritime transport.
Rising shipping costs are eroding trade competitiveness, threatening economic stability, and fueling inflation.
Furthermore, Lloyd’s of London highlighted that with more than 80% of the world’s imports and exports – around 11 billion tons of goods – at sea at any given time, the closure of major trade routes due to a geopolitical conflict is one of the greatest threats to the resources needed for a resilient economy.
Furthermore, Lloyd’s of London highlighted that with more than 80% of the world’s imports and exports – around 11 billion tons of goods – at sea at any given time, the closure of major trade routes due to a geopolitical conflict is one of the greatest threats to the resources needed for a resilient economy.
Looking Forward
From the escalating threats in the Middle East to the rise of shadow fleet activity, the maritime industry is confronting a series of unprecedented challenges.
These developments are not only jeopardizing the safety of seafarers but also disrupting global supply chains and threatening vulnerable economies.
To effectively address these issues, it is crucial for the global community to prioritize international cooperation, ensuring a coordinated response that can mitigate the risks and address challenges.
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