China’s Expanding Power in the Asia-Pacific Beijing is increasing its grey zone tactics—using military and civilian tools to expand influence without direct conflict.
From SeaLight by Ariana L.
Two recent RAND reports serve as a wake-up call: integrating resilience, capacity, and coordinated efforts isn’t just beneficial for combatting China's gray-zone warfare, it’s absolutely imperative for long-term regional stability.
Two recent RAND reports serve as a wake-up call: integrating resilience, capacity, and coordinated efforts isn’t just beneficial for combatting China's gray-zone warfare, it’s absolutely imperative for long-term regional stability.
SeaLight Director Ray Powell and Jim Carouso recently sat down with RAND's Todd Helmus to talk through these reports on the Why Should We Care About the Indo Pacific? podcast
Recently, I had the opportunity to dive into two pivotal RAND reports that tackle one of the most pressing challenges in the Indo-Pacific today: China’s gray zone operations.
In this review, I’ll summarize and analyze the key findings of Understanding and Countering China’s Maritime Gray Zone Operations and How the United States Can Support Allied and Partner Efforts to Counter China in the Gray Zone.
Both papers offer a detailed examination of China’s multifaceted approach to coercion, as well as strategic recommendations for how regional partners and the United States might effectively respond.
Unpacking the Mechanics of Gray Zone Warfare
Understanding and Countering China’s Maritime Gray Zone Operations provides a deep dive into China’s use of ambiguity as a strategic tool.
The report explains how Beijing employs a range of tactics—from maritime harassment (using water cannons, lasers, and even ramming maneuvers) to the deployment of maritime militia vessels that masquerade as ordinary fishing boats.
These methods are intentionally designed to exploit the “gray area” between peace and full-scale war.
What’s particularly striking is the emphasis on ambiguity.
The report argues that by operating below the threshold of conventional conflict, China is able to gradually erode the security of its neighbors without triggering a robust military response.
This strategic ambiguity forces policymakers to reexamine traditional deterrence models since there isn’t a clear point at which the situation escalates into overt warfare.
For example, the report notes, “China’s gray zone operations enable it to impose costs on its adversaries without provoking a conventional military response,” highlighting how the subtlety of these tactics complicates effective countermeasures.
Understanding and Countering China’s Maritime Gray Zone Operations provides a deep dive into China’s use of ambiguity as a strategic tool.
The report explains how Beijing employs a range of tactics—from maritime harassment (using water cannons, lasers, and even ramming maneuvers) to the deployment of maritime militia vessels that masquerade as ordinary fishing boats.
These methods are intentionally designed to exploit the “gray area” between peace and full-scale war.
What’s particularly striking is the emphasis on ambiguity.
The report argues that by operating below the threshold of conventional conflict, China is able to gradually erode the security of its neighbors without triggering a robust military response.
This strategic ambiguity forces policymakers to reexamine traditional deterrence models since there isn’t a clear point at which the situation escalates into overt warfare.
For example, the report notes, “China’s gray zone operations enable it to impose costs on its adversaries without provoking a conventional military response,” highlighting how the subtlety of these tactics complicates effective countermeasures.
Strategic Importance of the South China Sea
The South China Sea is described not merely as a disputed maritime boundary but as a critical artery for global trade and a reservoir of natural resources.
Understanding and Countering China’s Maritime Gray Zone Operations stresses that any destabilization in this region could have cascading effects on international commerce and energy security.
The militarization of disputed features—such as through the construction of artificial islands equipped with radar, airstrips, and missile batteries—is a deliberate move by China to reshape regional power dynamics.
By asserting control in this way, China not only threatens the sovereignty of neighboring nations but also challenges the rules-based international order.
The potential economic fallout of such a destabilization could be enormous, making it imperative for the international community to pay attention to these developments.
“If you look at China’s coast guard and its maritime militia over the last three years—you would see a dramatic increase in the number of ships and the depth of the penetration,” said Ray Powell, director of SeaLight, a U.S.-based research initiative focused on gray-zone activities.
“It’s taken on the character of a maritime occupation.”
The Role of Regional Partners: Varied Responses to a Common Threat
How the United States Can Support Allied and Partner Efforts to Counter China in the Gray Zone shifts focus to how regional players are responding to China’s coercive tactics.
The report details a mosaic of responses across Southeast and East Asia:
Vietnam:
Vietnam has adopted a dual approach that blends military readiness with strategic diplomacy.
Hanoi has maintained a relatively robust naval presence in the South China Sea and frequently issues formal protests against Chinese incursions.
Beyond traditional military measures, Vietnam leverages its historical mistrust of Beijing and deepens strategic alliances—most notably with the United States and India—to bolster its security posture.
However, limited resources and constrained naval capacity mean that Vietnam’s resistance is often reactive, highlighting the need for external support to sustain long-term deterrence.
Malaysia:
Malaysia’s strategy is characterized by a preference for quiet diplomacy combined with incremental defensive enhancements.
Kuala Lumpur has traditionally avoided overt confrontation with China, opting instead for behind-the-scenes negotiations and diplomatic protests.
In recognition of the growing threat to its sovereignty, Malaysia has begun investing in its maritime defenses by acquiring new patrol vessels and upgrading its surveillance capabilities.
This measured approach aims to balance its economic relationship with China against the imperative of safeguarding its territorial claims.
Taiwan:
Taiwan faces unique challenges given its limited diplomatic recognition and geographical proximity to China.
In response, Taipei has focused on strengthening its naval capabilities and pursuing strategic diplomatic engagement to counteract Beijing’s isolation efforts.
Despite resource constraints, Taiwan has prioritized modernizing its maritime defenses and actively cultivating international partnerships.
These initiatives are designed to fortify Taiwan’s security without provoking overt escalation, ensuring it remains a resilient actor in the gray zone.
Japan:
Japan’s response has been multifaceted, emphasizing both enhanced maritime security and regional cooperation.
The country has increased its naval patrols and participated in joint exercises with allies to project a stronger security presence in the region.
Moreover, Japan has invested in intelligence-sharing networks and bolstered bilateral relations with key regional partners, thereby reinforcing collective deterrence.
Japan’s strategic recalibration is not only about hard power; it also involves diplomatic efforts aimed at building a united front against coercion, ensuring that regional security architecture remains robust.
The diversity in these responses illustrate that there is no “one-size-fits-all” solution.
Each nation’s strategy is a product of its unique geopolitical context, resource capabilities, and economic dependencies.
Yet, the varied approaches complicate efforts to form a unified response but also demonstrate regional resilience.
The report clearly argues that tailored U.S. support is essential for addressing these specific vulnerabilities and fostering greater overall coordination among partners.
Fromthe East China Sea to the South Pacific :
China's evolving risk tolerance and Gray-Zone operations
The U.S. Strategy: Supporting Allies and Countering Gray Zone Tactics
The United States recognizes the need for a robust strategy to counter China’s gray zone operations, particularly in the maritime domain of the South China Sea.
A key component of this approach is empowering regional allies to resist coercion, defend sovereignty, and uphold the rules-based international order.
Both RAND reports stress the importance of a robust U.S. strategy, built on four key pillars:Presence Operations and Deterrence:
The use of Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS) and continuous maritime patrols is vital.
As emphasized, a sustained U.S. naval presence directly challenges China’s expansive claims and reassures regional allies of America’s commitment .
The United States recognizes the need for a robust strategy to counter China’s gray zone operations, particularly in the maritime domain of the South China Sea.
A key component of this approach is empowering regional allies to resist coercion, defend sovereignty, and uphold the rules-based international order.
Both RAND reports stress the importance of a robust U.S. strategy, built on four key pillars:Presence Operations and Deterrence:
The use of Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS) and continuous maritime patrols is vital.
As emphasized, a sustained U.S. naval presence directly challenges China’s expansive claims and reassures regional allies of America’s commitment .
Enhancing Transparency:
Publicizing China’s coercive actions—via embedded journalists and advanced surveillance—damages Beijing’s international reputation.
This transparency not only informs the global community but also bolsters the morale of affected nations.
Building Regional Capacity:
Given that many Southeast Asian countries lack adequate maritime defense assets, U.S. support in the form of surveillance systems, reconnaissance tools, and patrol vessels is critical.
Joint exercises and improved information-sharing can enhance interoperability.
Deploying Non-Lethal Deterrence Tools:
Utilizing non-lethal options like water cannons and sonar devices offers a controlled method to counter Chinese coercion without escalating conflict.
Research and joint exercises can further refine these capabilities.
This integrated U.S. strategy represents a significant evolution from traditional military approaches.
It acknowledges the complexity of gray zone operations and combines hard power with diplomatic, informational, and technological measures.
Such a holistic framework is designed to empower regional partners, ensuring that responses are both flexible and effective against China’s multifaceted tactics.
Challenges and Barriers to Countering China’s Gray Zone Operations
Despite these clear strategies, the reports identify several challenges:
Economic Leverage:
Many regional nations have deep economic ties with China, making them reluctant to adopt aggressive stances.
Reducing this dependency through economic diversification is key.
Limited Naval and Surveillance Capabilities:
The lack of advanced maritime assets in many Southeast Asian countries hinders effective defense and rapid response.
Risk of Escalation:
The ambiguous nature of gray zone operations means that even measured responses can inadvertently provoke larger conflicts.
Coordination Challenges:
The diverse strategies among regional players complicate the development of a unified response, necessitating enhanced regional institutions and intelligence-sharing mechanisms.
These challenges are not insurmountable but do require a careful, calibrated approach that not only addresses the immediate threats but also lays the groundwork for long-term stability in the region.
A Path Forward: Resilience, Capacity, and Coordination
To counter China’s gray zone operations, the U.S. and its allies must pursue three interlinked lines of effort:
Building Regional Will and Resilience:
Increasing public awareness of China’s tactics strengthens political resolve.
Economic diversification reduces reliance on Chinese trade and investment, allowing for more assertive responses.
Strengthening Maritime Capacity:
Economic diversification reduces reliance on Chinese trade and investment, allowing for more assertive responses.
Strengthening Maritime Capacity:
Providing critical assets such as patrol vessels, surveillance drones, and radar systems enhances defensive capabilities.
Training programs improve readiness and coordination among maritime forces.
Fostering Multilateral Cooperation:
Training programs improve readiness and coordination among maritime forces.
Fostering Multilateral Cooperation:
Strengthening ASEAN and developing shared intelligence networks improve maritime domain awareness and facilitate rapid, coordinated responses to gray zone activities.
This path forward is not merely about immediate deterrence—it is about building a sustainable and adaptive security architecture in the Indo-Pacific.
By focusing on resilience, capacity, and coordination, U.S. policymakers can help create an environment where regional states are better prepared to counter coercive tactics, ensuring that the international rules-based order remains intact.
This path forward is not merely about immediate deterrence—it is about building a sustainable and adaptive security architecture in the Indo-Pacific.
By focusing on resilience, capacity, and coordination, U.S. policymakers can help create an environment where regional states are better prepared to counter coercive tactics, ensuring that the international rules-based order remains intact.
Conclusion
Understanding and Countering China’s Maritime Gray Zone Operations and How the United States Can Support Allied and Partner Efforts to Counter China in the Gray Zone lay out a detailed roadmap for tackling one of today’s most complex security challenges.
These reports reveal that China’s gray zone tactics aren’t just about military maneuvers—they’re an intricate mix of economic, diplomatic, and informational warfare.
For those of us keeping an eye on the Indo-Pacific, it’s clear that a comprehensive U.S. strategy is essential.
Think sustained naval presence, crystal-clear transparency, robust capacity building, and smart use of non-lethal deterrence.
Together, these elements serve as the building blocks for keeping the region free and open.
In many ways, these RAND reports serve as a wake-up call: integrating resilience, capacity, and coordinated efforts isn’t just beneficial; it’s absolutely imperative for long-term regional stability.
Links :
Understanding and Countering China’s Maritime Gray Zone Operations and How the United States Can Support Allied and Partner Efforts to Counter China in the Gray Zone lay out a detailed roadmap for tackling one of today’s most complex security challenges.
These reports reveal that China’s gray zone tactics aren’t just about military maneuvers—they’re an intricate mix of economic, diplomatic, and informational warfare.
For those of us keeping an eye on the Indo-Pacific, it’s clear that a comprehensive U.S. strategy is essential.
Think sustained naval presence, crystal-clear transparency, robust capacity building, and smart use of non-lethal deterrence.
Together, these elements serve as the building blocks for keeping the region free and open.
In many ways, these RAND reports serve as a wake-up call: integrating resilience, capacity, and coordinated efforts isn’t just beneficial; it’s absolutely imperative for long-term regional stability.
Links :
- CSIS : How Interagency Campaigns Can Counter Chinese Gray Zone Incursions in the Pacific
- Heritage : China’s Maritime Grey Zone Tactics Are Evolving
- WSJ : China Is Waging a ‘Gray Zone’ Campaign to Cement Power. Here’s How It Looks.
- Asian Times: Philippines to match China’s gray zone tactics in South China Sea
- Carnegie : Combating the Gray Zone: Examining Chinese Threats to the Maritime Domain
- CW : China’s Gray Zone Tactics: Can Taiwan Restore the Median Line?
- CIMSEC : Develop strategiesto counter China's Gray Zone tactics
- EastWestCenter : New War in the South China Sea: Framing China's Unrestricted Warfare and the Role of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy
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