From Artic Today
This is the first instalment in a four-part series of commentaries, exploring Greenland’s mineral wealth, political and economic landscape, and the consequences of climate change.
Overview
For centuries, Greenland’s geography has helped determine its destiny.
The North Atlantic island, covered by sheet ice, has functioned at times as a barrier and, at other points, as a bridge in the global power competition—a key Arctic node connecting North America, Europe, and Asia.
Moreover, global powers during the 20th century’s world wars, the Cold War, and through to the modern day have considered Greenland a strategic defence asset.
In recent years, the island’s appeal has only increased as climate change has, and will continue, to open access to new Arctic trade routes and to critical mineral wealth.
We expect Greenland’s strategic importance to only increase over the coming decades, and this commentary will be the first in a series examining the reasons behind our view.
Greenland’s Importance as a Defensive Shield is Unlikely to Change
Greenland’s inhospitable climate for centuries limited its economic value; however, its defensive value has shaped European geopolitics as far back as during the Norse settlement 500 years ago.
More recently, sovereignty over the large landmass was used to prevent rival empires from claiming a foothold in the North Atlantic.
The Danish colonial control over Greenland began in 1721 and remained after Denmark split from Norway in 1814.
During the second world war, the U.S. invoked the Monroe Doctrine to protect it from the encroachment of Nazi Germany-occupied Denmark, which turned Greenland into a key strategic asset.
It was at that time the U.S. and the allied forces installed airfields and weather stations on the island, crucial to Atlantic naval warfare.
Additionally, Greenland’s value expanded during the cold war’s proliferation of nuclear weapons, as Greenland sat astride the shortest flight path between the Soviet Union (USSR) and North America.
When Denmark joined NATO in 1949, Greenland anchored the alliance’s northern flank and constrained the USSR’s access to North America by occupying the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom (GIUK) Gap, a maritime and air corridor vital for monitoring Atlantic transit of USSR submarines and bombers.
In 1951, Denmark and the U.S. signed the Defense of Greenland Agreement, which allows the U.S.
forces to operate bases on the island under NATO command.
The agreement remains the legal foundation of the continued U.S.military presence on the island.
The backbone of NATO’s Arctic defence is the Pituffik Space Base (previously named Thule Air Base, which was established in 1951).
Operated by the U.S.Space Force, it is a key refuelling station, an important monitoring site for early warning radar, and a NATO hub for long-range bombers.
In short, Greenland has served as a North Atlantic defensive shield for NATO allies to intercept threats that pass above, beneath, or around the island.
As Arctic conditions change in the coming years, we expect Greenland’s military importance to increase.
However, we do not expect a buildup of large permanent forces or direct challenges to the island’s sovereignty, despite earlier comments from the U.S. president, and his administration’s preference to take Greenland by any means necessary.
More realistically, we expect U.S. and allied forces to expand their functions and capabilities in Greenland through modernisation of early warning systems, a hardening of infrastructure, and more frequent joint allied exercises.
Overview
For centuries, Greenland’s geography has helped determine its destiny.
The North Atlantic island, covered by sheet ice, has functioned at times as a barrier and, at other points, as a bridge in the global power competition—a key Arctic node connecting North America, Europe, and Asia.
Moreover, global powers during the 20th century’s world wars, the Cold War, and through to the modern day have considered Greenland a strategic defence asset.
In recent years, the island’s appeal has only increased as climate change has, and will continue, to open access to new Arctic trade routes and to critical mineral wealth.
We expect Greenland’s strategic importance to only increase over the coming decades, and this commentary will be the first in a series examining the reasons behind our view.
Greenland’s Importance as a Defensive Shield is Unlikely to Change
Greenland’s inhospitable climate for centuries limited its economic value; however, its defensive value has shaped European geopolitics as far back as during the Norse settlement 500 years ago.
More recently, sovereignty over the large landmass was used to prevent rival empires from claiming a foothold in the North Atlantic.
The Danish colonial control over Greenland began in 1721 and remained after Denmark split from Norway in 1814.
During the second world war, the U.S. invoked the Monroe Doctrine to protect it from the encroachment of Nazi Germany-occupied Denmark, which turned Greenland into a key strategic asset.
It was at that time the U.S. and the allied forces installed airfields and weather stations on the island, crucial to Atlantic naval warfare.
Additionally, Greenland’s value expanded during the cold war’s proliferation of nuclear weapons, as Greenland sat astride the shortest flight path between the Soviet Union (USSR) and North America.
When Denmark joined NATO in 1949, Greenland anchored the alliance’s northern flank and constrained the USSR’s access to North America by occupying the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom (GIUK) Gap, a maritime and air corridor vital for monitoring Atlantic transit of USSR submarines and bombers.
In 1951, Denmark and the U.S. signed the Defense of Greenland Agreement, which allows the U.S.
forces to operate bases on the island under NATO command.
The agreement remains the legal foundation of the continued U.S.military presence on the island.
The backbone of NATO’s Arctic defence is the Pituffik Space Base (previously named Thule Air Base, which was established in 1951).
Operated by the U.S.Space Force, it is a key refuelling station, an important monitoring site for early warning radar, and a NATO hub for long-range bombers.
In short, Greenland has served as a North Atlantic defensive shield for NATO allies to intercept threats that pass above, beneath, or around the island.
As Arctic conditions change in the coming years, we expect Greenland’s military importance to increase.
However, we do not expect a buildup of large permanent forces or direct challenges to the island’s sovereignty, despite earlier comments from the U.S. president, and his administration’s preference to take Greenland by any means necessary.
More realistically, we expect U.S. and allied forces to expand their functions and capabilities in Greenland through modernisation of early warning systems, a hardening of infrastructure, and more frequent joint allied exercises.
Trade Routes Around Greenland are Inseparable from Security
Greenland is next to one of the most important maritime corridors in modern history.
The GIUK Gap (Exhibit 1) is a key commercial shipping lane that connects North American and European industry and markets.
Over the last century, trade and military routes merged, as optimal commerce depends on the secure transit of goods.
Most transatlantic trade—including physical goods, energy flows (including the ramp of liquified natural gas from the U.S.
to Europe), and undersea cables—moves through or near the corridor around Greenland.
Moreover, any disruption to Atlantic shipping would adversely affect the economies of NATO countries.
The recent near closing of the Strait of Hormuz illustrates how the interruption of trade can be an effective war tactic.
Additionally, the transformation of the Arctic because of climate change is fundamentally altering the relevance of trade routes around the large island.
While Greenland or Denmark do not control these trade routes directly—as they are governed by international maritime law—the island serves as a gatekeeper by sitting at the entry and exit points between the Arctic and global markets.
Looking ahead as the Greenlandic ice melts, various key trade routes have and will continue to open and allow direct passage via the Arctic circle either with, or eventually without, ice-breaker cargo ships—amplifying the importance of the island for global trade.
Potential Critical Minerals in Greenland are Attractive for Technologies of the Future
Geologically speaking, Greenland might contain one of the most diverse and globally significant concentrations of critical minerals in the Arctic, with geological surveys indicating the presence of 25 out of the 34 minerals classified as critical by the European Union (EU).
This includes the potential for graphite, lithium, uranium, nickel, cobalt, copper, zinc, lead, titanium, gold, and deposits of Rare Earth Elements (REEs).
Early exploration work date back centuries, but there has been revived interest over the two decades, because of recent discoveries, including the Kvanefjeld and Tanbreez rare earth projects in southern Greenland.
REEs are essential for high-performance permanent magnets used in batteries and semiconductors that are key inputs to electronic vehicles, wind turbines, data centers, and robotics.
For example, according to Belfer Center research, an electric vehicle requires six times more minerals than a conventional car.
Currently, the global powers (including the EU, U.S., China, and Russia) have shown a renewed interest in Greenland’s potential for minerals, given their significance for the technologies of the future.
Control over the mineral potential in Greenland is also important for national security priorities.
REE are used in missile guided systems, fighter jets, and radar and sonar technologies.
Presently, China remains the dominant structural power in REE because of its mining capacity and its near total control over processing, separation, and magnet manufacturing.
China refines roughly 85% of global REE, which gives it considerable leverage over downstream production and creates supply chain risk for industries in the rest of the world.
Therefore, Greenland is considered a potential alternative to strategic mineral dependence on China.
Recently, large and middle arctic powers have accelerated policies in pursuit of increasingly strategic minerals.
For instance, the EU is structurally vulnerable, as it imports roughly 95% of its REEs and has set medium-term benchmarks for domestic mining and processing on its soil.
In addition, the EU also negotiated the Critical Minerals Agreement with the U.S. to embed transatlantic supply chains.
Likewise, the U.S.has framed REEs as a national security asset and is pursuing an industrial strategy to prioritize the import of REE from more trusted suppliers.
Other arctic countries, such as Russia, Nordic countries, and Canada have also made development of large mineral reserves a strategic importance.
Greenland’s Expanding Geopolitical Role
For many centuries, Greenland has played an outsize role in geopolitics.
Greenland’s value as a defense asset, source of critical minerals, and as a trade route are essential to this role.
And forthcoming changes to the climate, altering trade routes in the North Atlantic, and the shifting state of global powers will only continue to increase its presence on the global stage.
Matt Rutherford departs Annapolis for Greenland, where he will begin an attempt to become the first person to circumnavigate the Arctic solo and nonstop by sailboat.
Sailing across an increasingly fragmented Arctic. Photo: Ocean Research Project
Matt Rutherford preparing to lower a probe into the ice. Photo: Ocean Research Project
Aerial view of Matt Rutherford on board his 42-foot Valiant Photo: Ocean Research Project