Wednesday, April 29, 2026

China publishes maps detailing minerals on the ocean floor

 
A Chinese submersible in the South China Sea in 2017 during exploration for seabed mineral resources.
Credit... Liu Shiping/Xinhua, via Alamy

From NY Times by  Sachi Kitajima Mulkey

The new deep-sea atlas underscores Beijing’s interest in ocean mining, its military ambitions and its claims to disputed waters.


A research arm of the Chinese government said it had published an atlas of deep-sea mineral deposits, highlighting Beijing’s ambitions to mine the ocean floor and underscoring its disputed claims to waters that neighboring nations consider theirs.

Experts say the maps, in addition to pinpointing mineral deposits found in the deep ocean, give China’s military a thorough understanding of the seafloor in strategically important waters, providing an advantage if submarine warfare were to break out.

The announcement this month by the China Geological Survey puts pressure on other countries that have been ramping up their own seabed mining efforts, in part to reduce their dependence on China for critical minerals and rare earth elements.
Ocean sediments are rich in valuable resources including cobalt, nickel, and manganese.

“China is pouring enormous resources in an effort to emerge as a world-leading oceanographic power,” said Bruce Jones, a naval affairs and foreign policy expert at the Brookings Institution.
The United States historically dominated in ocean-science fields, he said.
Now, China is closing the gap, increasing China’s military capabilities and equipping it with the knowledge needed to fight underwater, Dr. Jones said.

With mapping of this nature, “you can use it for science, and you can use it for warfare,” Dr. Jones said.
“It’s a rare-earth play, it’s a scientific play, and it’s a strategic play all at once,” he said.

The atlas, according to materials published on the China Geological Survey website, maps the locations and concentrations of dozens of resources, drawing from two decades of research and samplings at more than 10,000 locations.
The China Geological Survey said the atlas included the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea, where China claims territory that neighboring nations consider theirs.

China controls most of the world’s supply of key critical metals and rare earths, which are essential ingredients in modern weapons and technologies, and the Chinese government recently approved a five-year plan that lists the development of deep-sea minerals a priority.
China has used its dominance to political ends, for example by restricting exports to the United States and Japan during disputes with those countries.

Japan is developing its own seabed mining program, in part to reduce its reliance on Chinese supplies.
In February, the government said it had successfully retrieved mud rich in rare earths from depths of more than 6,000 meters, an achievement that Japan’s prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, hailed as a “world’s first.” Japan and the United States have made commitments to support each others’ seabed mining projects.

The Trump administration has made seabed mining a priority.
It hopes to issue mining leases near Pacific Ocean territories like American Samoa.
It is also plans to permit commercial miningoutside of U.S. territorial waters without international approval.
China’s mining atlas has strategic importance in bolstering its claim for disputed waters, according to Yun Sun, who leads a Chinese foreign policy program at the Stimson Center, a foreign affairs research organization in Washington.
There are a number of international law customs that determine national boundaries.
Consistently occupying and managing a territory can strengthen a country’s claim to it.
That means nonmilitary actions, like science and conservation, can be used to exert authority over an area, Dr.
Sun said.
Publicly announcing the atlas could be interpreted as China making a statement that it commands this maritime domain.

Chinese deep-sea exploration ships have been spotted in the territorial waters of other countries, such as near the Aleutian Islands in Alaska.
China has also reportedly tested seabed mining equipment in waters that Taiwan and the Philippines claim.

Detailed mapping also helps countries claim additional seafloor, said Larry Mayer, director of the Center for Coastal and Ocean Mapping at the University of New Hampshire.
The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea sets a boundary of 200 nautical miles from a nation’s coastline as an “exclusive economic zone” where it has special rights over resources, but a country can claim more seabed if it can prove that its continental shelf extends beyond this zone.
This has been a significant driver of ocean exploration efforts, Dr.
Mayer said.
In 2023, the United States made public detailed maps made over the previous decade claiming about 380,000 square miles of expanded continental shelf, including in the Arctic, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
China has also presented proposals to the United Nations to extend its claim to the continental shelf, based on geological map evidence, drawing borders that Japan disputes as overlapping with its exclusive economic zone.

In the South China Sea (which the atlas does not cover), China has redrawn boundaries in waters also claimed by Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines and has taken other steps, including building artificial islands, to support its claims.
Seabed mining is controversial.
Critics say not enough is known about deep-sea environments to safely mine them.
Research shows that mining would reduce the abundance of deep-sea animals and that ecosystems are slow to recover.
Numerous countries as well as environmental organizations have called for moratoriums or an industry ban.
 
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Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Korea-Japan 'East Sea' dispute enters new phase as IHO adopts Digital Standard Society

 
The Greenwich Observatory labels the body of water as the Sea of Japan rather than the East Sea.
Courtesy of Professor Seo Kyoung-duk's team


 
From Seoul Economic Daily by Kim Do-yeon
 
The International Hydrographic Organization (IHO) has adopted a digital standard that identifies seas by unique numerical codes rather than names, a move expected to weaken Japan's long-standing claim to the sole use of "Sea of Japan."

According to the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries on Wednesday, the IHO officially adopted the digital nautical chart dataset "S-130" at its Fourth Assembly held in Monaco from November 19 to 23.
The decision follows the organization's 2020 resolution at its Second Assembly to develop S-130 as a revised version of the existing nautical chart collection "Limits of Oceans and Seas (S-23)."

S-130 is a new digital nautical chart standard that identifies sea areas by unique identification numbers instead of names.
The key change is a shift from a name-based system to a numerical system suited for electronic navigation and geographic information systems (GIS).
Each sea area will be assigned a unique number combining the latitude and longitude of its center point, meaning seas will be managed under what amounts to an "identification number system."

"This is currently in its early stage, and after the IHO lays the groundwork, the system will be gradually refined to become operational," a Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries official said.
As a result, the existing standard nautical chart collection S-23 will remain only as a reference material from before the digital transition.
A map uploaded on the Voluntary Agency Network of Korea (VANK) website shows the body of water between Korea and Japan labeled as the East Sea.
Captured from VANK
The adoption of the new standard is also the result of the Korean government's continuous efforts to raise the issue and engage in diplomatic outreach in response to the sole designation of "Sea of Japan" in S-23.
Korea and Japan have long been in conflict over the naming of the sea area east of the Korean Peninsula.
When the IHO compiled S-23 in 1929, Japan registered the sea area as the "Sea of Japan," but Korea, then under Japanese colonial rule, was unable to participate in the naming process.

Since then, discussions have continued based on the principle of dual naming in the absence of agreement between the parties, but no consensus has been reached due to differences between the two countries.
However, with the introduction of S-130, sea names themselves will no longer be used in the future digital standard system, bringing the long-standing "East Sea dual naming" debate into a new phase.

Experts say the nature of the competition is fundamentally changing.
Under the previous S-23 system, the key question was which name to display.
Going forward, how a particular name is presented within the data structure has become the more important issue.

"The goal should now be to design a structure in which the East Sea is continuously exposed," said Park Chang-gun, a professor of Japanese Studies at the School of East Asian International Studies at Kookmin University.
"Rather than focusing on dual naming through diplomatic persuasion, the key task is to ensure that the East Sea naturally appears through data structures and standardization rules."

"We need to strengthen our capacity to participate in international standard governance in order to secure a position that can influence decision-making and design," Park added.
"Since the actual impact of place-name designation is determined on platforms such as Google Maps and marine information systems, cooperation with global platforms is also essential."

He also said, "We need to develop a strategy for taking the lead in standards and structures amid the low-intensity competition with Japan."
 
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Strongest El Niño in a century? What this rare phenomenon could bring.

 
Dramatic ocean warming expected across the Pacific could lead to one of the strongest El Niño events on record this year. (Ben Noll/The Washington Post; data source: ECMWF)
 
From WP by Ben Noll

This year’s potential super El Niño is looking increasingly likely to have wide-reaching climate impacts that last into 2027.

 The chances for a planet-warming super El Niño this year are rising, according to an updated model forecast issued Sunday.
The latest ECMWF outlook indicates there’s a high chance for a supercharged version of the climate pattern that affects regional-to-global weather patterns this summer or fall, doubling down on a super El Niño prediction from last month.

During a typical El Niño, a warming patch of water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean influences what regions experience droughts, floods, extreme heat, hurricanes and declining sea ice. During relatively rare super El Niño events, happening once every 10 to 15 years on average, the effects may be stronger, more persistent and more widespread.

That’s because sea temperatures in that key region of the Pacific Ocean warm more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above average, leading to a strong atmospheric response — typically peaking in December or January.

For example, the Western United States, parts of Africa, Europe and India could face a hotter-than-average summer, some tropical countries, such as those in the Caribbean and Indonesia could face worse drought and extreme heat, while more tropical cyclones could develop in the Pacific, with fewer in the Atlantic.
This possible super El Niño could also push global temperatures to record levels, particularly in 2027, and have agricultural impacts as weather patterns change.
“Real potential for the strongest El Niño event in 140 years,” wrote Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric science at the State University of New York at Albany.

 
A super El Niño event is forecast to develop by this fall, causing significant weather-related impacts across the planet. 
(Ben Noll/The Washington Post; data source: ECMWF)

Global impacts from a super El Niño
 
 SST anomalies

This year’s potential super El Niño seems increasingly likely to have wide-reaching climate impacts that last into 2027.

It could break the record for El Niño intensity set in December 2015, when sea temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific reached 2.8 degrees Celsius (5.04 degrees Fahrenheit) above average.
Still, even as some signs point to a potent event, including a rare triplet-cyclone pattern brewing in the Pacific, uncertainty remains as to how strong this year’s El Niño will become. Furthermore, no two El Niño events are alike — especially as the climate warms — but past experiences can be used to help plan and prepare.
Here are some of the weather impacts predicted to unfold through at least October, according to the newest model outlook.

 
El Niño will influence areas of drought and downpours across the planet later this year.
(Ben Noll/The Washington Post; data source: ECMWF)
  • Reduced hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean and possible drought in the Caribbean islands. Increased hurricane and typhoon risk in the Pacific Ocean, including Hawaii, Guam and much of eastern Asia.
  • Potential drought in central and northern India, suppressing rainfall from that region’s monsoon season, which could impact agricultural production.
  • Above-average summer temperatures and humidity in the Western United States, possibly coming with unusual downpours, which may reach into the Plains and extend severe thunderstorm season.
  • Developing droughts in portions of Central Africa, Australia, Indonesia, the Philippines, some South Pacific islands, Central America and northern Brazil, particularly later in the year. Flooding downpours in Peru and Ecuador, parts of northern and eastern Africa, the Middle East and near the equator in the Pacific.
  • Higher frequency of heat waves across large parts of South America, the southern United States, Africa, Europe, parts of the Middle East, India and eventually Australia.
  • New global temperature records — especially in 2027 — probably breaking records set in 2024.

 
Well above-average temperatures are forecast across swaths of the planet later this year while El Niño is forecast to intensify.
(Ben Noll/The Washington Post; data source: ECMWF)

The strongest El Niño events almost always cause a record-warm year. That’s because heat comes out of the ocean during El Niño, overspreads the tropics in the Pacific, then gets redistributed across the planet by changes in the jet streams.
This could contribute to milder winter temperatures in the United States — and big storms along the West Coast — as the impacts of El Niño reach a peak from the end of the year into early 2027.

As the planet warms, El Niño behaves differently

Strong El Niño periods often appear as an upward stairstep in long-term plots of global temperatures.
“Due to the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases, the climate system cannot effectively exhaust the heat released in a major El Niño event before the next El Niño comes along and pushes the baseline upward again,” Defense Department meteorologist Eric Webb said.
Therefore, a super El Niño in 2026-27 would disperse more heat than other events in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.

 
Sea surface temperature anomalies during the formative stages of four El Niño events show how much more warm water there is in 2026 compared to past years.
(Ben Noll/The Washington Post; data source: NOAA/OISST)

Not only would a super El Niño spread unusual heat and humidity far and wide, but it may also spark record atmospheric moisture flows-, which drive downpours that raise the risk for floods. That’s because a warmer atmosphere has a higher moisture-carrying capacity.

Sunday, April 26, 2026

This new ship technology cuts fuel use by 30%