Thursday, September 17, 2026

The deepest dive ever made in American Waters



From World Atlas 
 
On May 7, 2019, Victor Vescovo and marine scientist Alan Jamieson descended into Sirena Deep aboard the submersible Limiting Factor.
The dive reached 10,714 meters, or 35,151 feet, inside the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone associated with Guam.
Vescovo piloted the vehicle and Jamieson served as chief scientist.
They spent 176 minutes on the seafloor, filming, surveying, and collecting material.
Federal Mariana Trench management documents identify Sirena Deep as the deepest feature in the U.S.-associated Trench Unit.
The site sits far beyond Guam's 12-nautical-mile territorial sea.
For a science paper, the precise description is "deepest documented crewed dive within the U.S.
Exclusive Economic Zone." 
 
Sirena Deep Reached 35,151 Feet 
 
Illustration of the Mariana Trench, home to Sirena Deep, in the western Pacific.

The Five Deeps Expedition reached Sirena Deep during its Mariana Trench campaign in May 2019.
Expedition records give the May 7 descent a depth of 10,714 meters, with an uncertainty of about 10 meters.
The submersible carried Vescovo and Jamieson to the trench floor, where they remained for 176 minutes.
Their work began after a descent lasting several hours through the western Pacific water column.

The crew recorded video, examined rock exposures, searched for biological activity, and recovered samples.
Federal monument records later repeated the 35,151-foot depth and documented the first crewed descent to the site.
One recovered specimen was described as mantle-derived rock collected from the western slope of the Mariana Trench.
Expedition accounts also record geological and biological observations made during the bottom period.
The May 7 dive was the fifth Mariana mission conducted by Limiting Factor during that campaign.

Sirena Deep Sits Inside The U.S. EEZ 
 
 
The shoreline of Guam, the U.S. territory whose Exclusive Economic Zone contains Sirena Deep.

Sirena Deep lies south of Guam near 12 degrees north latitude and 144 degrees east longitude.
NOAA places it within the Mariana Trench Monument's Trench Unit, which follows U.S.
maritime boundaries around Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands.
An Exclusive Economic Zone can extend up to 200 nautical miles from a coastal baseline.
The United States exercises defined resource rights and jurisdiction within that zone.
Guam's territorial sea extends 12 nautical miles from its baseline.
Sirena Deep lies well offshore, inside the EEZ linked to Guam.
Federal management maps place the trench unit within those limits and identify Sirena Deep as its deepest feature.
The phrase "American waters" can cover several legal maritime zones.
In this case, "within the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone" identifies the jurisdiction precisely.

Limiting Factor Was Engineered For 11,000 Meters 
 
 
The bathyscaphe Trieste, an earlier crewed submersible built for extreme ocean depths.

Limiting Factor is a two-person Triton 36000/2 submersible rated to 11,000 meters.
Its pressure hull is a titanium-alloy sphere with walls 90 millimeters thick.
Triton states that the sphere was machined to 99.933 percent of a true sphere.
The crew sits inside that compact metal pressure vessel during the entire descent.

A spherical hull spreads external pressure around the crew compartment.
The vehicle was pressure-tested to the equivalent of 14,000 meters.
Triton lists its normal endurance at 16 hours and its maximum operating depth at full ocean depth.
The design also uses syntactic foam for buoyancy.

High-definition cameras, wide-angle cameras, exterior lights, navigation equipment, and sampling systems are built into the submersible.
The equipment supported 176 minutes of work on the Sirena Deep floor.
Limiting Factor completed repeated hadal dives during the Five Deeps Expedition, using the same crew sphere across several ocean basins.

HOW FAR DOWN THE WATER GOES The deepest oceanic trenches on Earth
 
Pressure At The Bottom Approaches 108 Megapascals
 
 
A submersible in deep water, where hull design must withstand crushing pressure.

At 10,714 meters, the water column places immense force on a submersible hull.
A basic hydrostatic calculation using seawater density near 1,025 kilograms per cubic meter gives about 108 megapascals.
NOAA commonly describes pressure in the deepest Mariana Trench as roughly a thousand times atmospheric pressure at sea level.
The pressure acts over every exposed part of the vehicle, including viewports, penetrations, joints, and external equipment.

Precise depth estimates use pressure readings alongside water compressibility, temperature, salinity, local gravity, tides, and atmospheric pressure.
Sonar measurements also depend on the speed of sound through seawater.
Small uncertainties in those variables can move a calculated depth by several meters.
The reported Sirena Deep figure carries an uncertainty of about ±10 meters.
Full-ocean-depth expeditions calibrate their instruments carefully because a few meters can alter a published extreme-depth measurement.

Mantle Rock At The Southern Mariana Trench 
 
Diagram of a subduction zone, the tectonic setting that shapes the southern Mariana Trench.

Sirena Deep occupies the southern Mariana subduction system, where the Pacific Plate bends beneath the Mariana region.
The trench floor there is cut by major faults and steep slopes.
NOAA locates Sirena Deep near the meeting point of the trench axis and the East Santa Rosa Bank Fault.
A 2020 Deep-Sea Research Part I study examined rock and imagery collected near 10,677 meters.
Researchers documented ultramafic rock altered by serpentinization, a water-rock reaction involving mantle minerals such as olivine.
Earlier work in the southern Mariana forearc also recovered strongly serpentinized peridotite.
Geologists studying these samples can examine material associated with the upper mantle and deep crustal processes.
During the 2019 crewed descent, Vescovo and Jamieson collected material from the western slope.
Federal management documents later recorded a mantle-derived specimen among the recovered samples.

Microbial Material Has Been Found Near 10,677 Meters 
 
Giant tube worms clustered around a deep-sea hydrothermal vent in the Mariana Trench.

A 2012 lander deployment at Sirena Deep photographed filament-like material on exposed rock and talus near 10,677 meters.
Researchers analyzed the images and samples in a 2020 peer-reviewed study.
The material occurred on rock surfaces in permanent darkness, cold water, and hadal pressure.

The authors interpreted the filaments as a possible microbial mat.
They also documented serpentinized ultramafic rock at the site.
Serpentinization can generate chemical compounds that some microorganisms use as energy sources.
The authors kept the biological identification tentative because direct sampling at this depth remains difficult.

Other Mariana Trench studies have documented hadal amphipods and distinctive microbial communities under similar pressure.
Research on Hirondellea gigas found specialized microbial associations in animals collected within the trench system.
Specimens examined in that work came from the Sirena and Challenger areas of the Mariana Trench.

Challenger Deep Falls In Micronesian Waters 
 
Sonar map of the Challenger Deep with annotated dive history.
Editorial credit: Vlvescovo, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

Challenger Deep contains the lowest measured seafloor in the Mariana Trench.
A NOAA-affiliated study reported 10,935 meters, with a 95 percent confidence interval of ±6 meters.
The site lies roughly 300 kilometers southwest of Guam.
NOAA research places it within waters of the Federated States of Micronesia.
The United States and Micronesia established a formal maritime boundary in this part of the western Pacific, defining the neighboring maritime zones.

Vescovo descended to Challenger Deep during the Five Deeps Expedition and completed a separate full-ocean-depth mission there.
Sirena Deep sits within the U.S. EEZ associated with Guam.
The reported depth difference between the two sites is about 221 meters.
Their maritime locations place the 10,714-meter Sirena descent in the U.S.-jurisdiction record.

The Puerto Rico Trench Came First 
 
Diagram showing the Puerto Rico Trench, the deepest part of the Atlantic Ocean.

Vescovo completed an earlier U.S.-associated hadal dive on December 19, 2018, in the Puerto Rico Trench.
Limiting Factor reached a verified depth of 8,375.1 meters during the first major descent of the Five Deeps Expedition.
The mission was the first crewed visit to the deepest point of the Atlantic Ocean.
U.S.
Geological Survey mapping places major portions of the trench inside the U.S.
Exclusive Economic Zone north of Puerto Rico.
The dive put the new submersible through a complete hadal mission several months before the Mariana campaign.
Limiting Factor later entered deep sites in the Southern, Indian, Pacific, and Arctic oceans during the same expedition.
Sirena Deep reached 10,714 meters in May 2019.
Expedition documents preserve both depths and dates in the mission chronology. 
 
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Wednesday, September 16, 2026

Rough weather, real risk: what 8,300 ship accidents reveal



CHIRP Maritime analysis of 16 years of SAFETY4SEA incident reports shows how weather conditions influence maritime risk

Every sailor has a story about storms.
But how much of the risk at sea is actually linked to weather?

To explore this question, CHIRP Maritime examined 16 years of accident reports published by SAFETY4SEA, mapping more than 8,300 incidents worldwide between 2010 and 2026 and matching each one with the weather recorded at that location on the day of the incident.

CHIRP Maritime works with the University of Leeds MSc Business Analytics and Decision Sciences course and annually sponsors one or more graduates to analyse maritime incident data.
For this study, graduate Rakib Hossain analysed incident reports published on the SAFETY4SEA website.

The key test was simple: each accident day was compared with conditions at the same location one and two weeks before and after the incident.
The waters and season remained broadly the same; what changed was the weather.
Five findings stand out.

Rough weather genuinely raises the risk.
Accidents were 62% more likely to occur on rough days than on calm days at the same location.
When wave heights exceeded 2.5 metres, the risk more than doubled.
 
Accidents were markedly more likely on rough-weather days – and likeliest of all in heavy seas / 
Image Credit: CHIRP Maritime

Yet most accidents happen in ordinary conditions.
The typical accident day saw gusts of just 38 km/h, while severe storms featured in fewer than 2% of cases.
Crews may successfully avoid the worst weather, but more routine rough conditions can still catch ships out.

Weather picks its targets.
Ships left adrift or disabled encountered rough weather on almost one in four accident days, with sinkings and groundings close behind.
Fires and collisions showed little change, suggesting that weather plays a much smaller role in these incidents.
 
Rough weather hits disabled ships, sinkings and groundings hardest; fires and collisions barely respond. / Image Credit: CHIRP Maritime

Cargo ships feel it most. Dry-cargo vessels — including bulk carriers, container ships and general cargo ships — were 84% more likely to experience an accident on rough days, representing the clearest ship-type effect.
Passenger ships showed the largest increase overall, although this was based on fewer cases, while tankers showed comparatively little change.Dry-cargo ships show the clearest weather effect; the passenger-ship rise is striking but rests on fewer cases. / Image Credit: CHIRP Maritime

The reports broadly reflect the recorded conditions.
When an article attributed an incident to weather, the meteorological records usually supported that assessment.
In storm-force gusts, seven in ten reports referred to weather as a factor, compared with around one in three during light winds.
 
Weather gets blamed more often as the measured wind gets stronger — the reports track reality. / Image Credit: CHIRP Maritime

The message is clear: weather is not the whole story when it comes to maritime accidents, but it represents a real and measurable part of the risk – particularly during winter, in heavy seas and for vessels carrying the world’s dry cargo. 
 
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Tuesday, September 15, 2026

Super El Niño could have unexpected effect on UK winter


A winter storm batters England’s south coast in January 2025
Mark Passmore/Alamy

From New Scientist by Madeleine Cuff

An El Niño is usually expected to herald a cold end to winter in the UK – but this year could be different

The unprecedented El Niño gathering strength in the Pacific Ocean could upend forecasts for UK weather this winter, bringing continuously wet, stormy conditions until spring.
El Niño is a natural climate phase that happens when easterly trade winds weaken, allowing the warm water they had piled up in the western Pacific to wash back across the central and eastern Pacific.
This swathe of warm water heats the atmosphere and weakens the winds further in a feedback loop.
The phenomenon’s impact on the weather in the UK and north-western Europe is notoriously tricky to predict, because weather patterns in this region are strongly affected by weather phenomena in the North Atlantic.

Under an El Niño event of normal intensity, the UK is more likely to experience wetter, windier, stormier weather in the late autumn and early winter, potentially followed by a colder, drier end to winter.

However, the sheer size of the current El Niño – already one of the largest on record and still intensifying – could mean that the end of winter and start of spring continue to be wet and stormy, says Adam Scaife at the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, who leads the agency’s long-range forecasting.
“We found that the big events show a slightly different response over the Atlantic,” he says.
El Niños usually increase the likelihood of cold easterly winds prevailing over the UK during late winter.
But a very strong El Niño may reverse that trend, leading to prevailing westerlies late in the season.
The weather under those conditions is “still cold, but it’s not extreme”, he says.
Scaife first reported this effect of strong El Niños in a 2006 research paper he co-wrote with Thomas Toniazzo, now at NORCE Research in Norway.
The study assessed the weather in the North Atlantic during El Niño years and found that very strong El Niños produced this mild and wet pattern in late winter.

 
The El Niño in 1997-1998, for example, was one of the most powerful on record.
It saw high pressure developing in the North Atlantic to the west of the UK over the late winter, leading to westerly prevailing winds that blew milder, wetter, stormier air over the UK and northern Europe.
The same pattern appeared in the 2015-2016 El Niño, when the UK had one of its mildest and wettest winters on record.
“We think that’s a real effect [of strong El Niños],” says Scaife.
“We’re looking for that at the end of this winter.”
A prolonged wet and stormy winter could saturate soils and make parts of the UK more susceptible to severe flooding.
But it would also offer an opportunity to replenish reservoirs and groundwater after an exceptionally dry summer.

However, Scaife warns it is very difficult to tease apart the effect of a strong El Niño compared with that of a standard-strength one, in part because there are only a few very strong events in the historical record for which we have good data.

El Niños – and their opposite pattern, La Niñas – also vary hugely from year to year and decade to decade, so it can be fiendishly difficult to separate out a signal from the noise in the system.
What’s more, it is very difficult to predict weather patterns months in advance, and there is still huge uncertainty over what late winter will hold for the UK.
This week, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) warned that the El Niño is still intensifying in the tropical Pacific and is set to be the largest on record, fuelling drought, floods and extreme temperatures around the world.
In most cases, a stronger El Niño brings more pronounced impacts globally, such as severe drought in Australia, the Amazon and Indonesia, and heavy rain in parts of South America, East Africa and the southern US.
The pattern is likely to peak in November, but will persist until at least February 2027, the WMO said, bringing extreme impacts that will last well into next year.
 
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Monday, September 14, 2026

The world’s biggest carbon sink may start emitting CO2 after net zero

Storms in the Southern Ocean help to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere
Hemis/Alamy
 
From New Scientist by Alec Luhn

If the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere declines, the Southern Ocean is likely to begin emitting more carbon than it absorbs, prolonging global warming

The Southern Ocean draws down more carbon than any other single region, absorbing about 10 per cent of human emissions.
But if the world reaches net-zero emissions and carbon dioxide concentrations fall, it will start releasing CO2 into the atmosphere.
This massive release of carbon will prolong global warming for centuries, even if humanity artificially removes gigantic amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere, a study has found.
The results show how difficult it will be to reverse climate change, even as countries place ever-larger hopes on carbon dioxide removal.
“That impact can sustain much, much longer than we expected,” says Yechul Shin at Seoul National University in South Korea.
“Let’s say we try to reduce the CO2… this sink-to-source transition in the Southern Ocean still acts as an obstacle to reduce the atmospheric CO2 concentration.”

The notoriously strong winds around the “roaring forties” and “furious fifties” latitudes of the southern hemisphere stir up waves and encourage the water to absorb CO2.
The water cools and sinks, storing that carbon away in the deep ocean for centuries or millennia.
This carbon uptake has been increasing as humanity pumps ever more greenhouse gas into the atmosphere, creating a higher concentration of CO2 in the air than in the surface water.
But if the atmospheric CO2 concentration begins falling, that ratio will flip, and the Southern Ocean will start releasing rather than absorbing CO2.
“It’s like you’re constantly pressing a piston into the ocean,” says Nicolas Gruber at ETH Zurich in Switzerland, who wasn’t involved in the study.
“If you pull the piston up again, then the CO2 comes back out.”

The researchers modelled a scenario in which the world reaches net zero in 2125 and the concentration of atmospheric CO2 starts to gradually decline from 700 parts per million.
They also modelled one in which humanity drastically decreases atmospheric CO2 after net zero through carbon dioxide removal, a range of approaches ranging from widespread tree planting to machines that filter CO2 out of the air.
In both scenarios, the Southern Ocean goes from absorbing about 3 grams of carbon per square metre per year now to emitting 8 to 9 grams of carbon per square metre by the year 2400.
Under both scenarios, atmospheric CO2 is projected to fall, but this decline gradually levels off after 2200 as the Southern Ocean emits more CO2.
In the carbon-removal scenario, atmospheric CO2 actually rises again for 50 years before levelling off at 425 parts per million – roughly the current concentration.
Without carbon removal, it levels off at 590 ppm.

The scenarios aren’t necessarily realistic, though.
Many countries, including the UK and members of the European Union, aim to reach net zero as soon as 2050.
Moreover, the amount of carbon dioxide removal remains minuscule compared with emissions, which are still increasing.
But regardless of when humanity reaches net zero, the ocean as a whole is likely to become a net source of CO2 as it begins releasing all the carbon that major sinks like the Southern Ocean stored, according to Alberto Naveira Garabato at the University of Southampton, UK.
“Anything that changes in terms of the way the ocean interacts with the atmosphere could be like adding a massive country to the world’s carbon budget,” he says.
While scientists largely expect the Southern Ocean to begin emitting CO2 at some point, the new research finds that two major feedbacks may amplify this release, says Gruber.
The first is driven by the enormous amount of heat that the Southern Ocean transfers to the depths alongside the carbon.
Warm water can hold less gas.
So, as that stored heat gradually returns to the surface, the Southern Ocean will lose more CO2, just like a glass of warm soda loses its fizz more rapidly than a glass of cold soda.

The second feedback is essentially an increase in ocean acidification.
Many of the plankton in the Southern Ocean form alkaline shells of calcium carbonate.
When they die and sink, they transfer alkalinity to the deep ocean.
But as the surface water warms, it will become less dense.
As a result, it will mix less with cold, dense and more-alkaline deep water.
With less alkalinity returning to the surface, less CO2 – which is slightly acidic – will be absorbed by the ocean.
The sooner humanity reaches net zero and stops heating the Southern Ocean, the less CO2 these waters will ultimately emit, says Shin.
This month, the UN said the world will fail to meet the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming below 1.5°C and should instead focus on ways to reduce global temperatures later on, including through carbon removal.
But the new study shows this may be harder to do than we expect, says Gruber.
“It’s like crashing a car into the wall, and then you back up the car.
It’s not the same car any more,” he says.
“We can’t just simply take out CO2.
There are consequences, and some of these consequences are long-lasting.”

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Sunday, September 13, 2026

250 days alone against the ocean: The Israeli taking on one of the world's toughest challenges

For Daniel Pinsky, the road to the Golden Globe Race 2026 begins here — in the cold, unstable waters of the North Atlantic, where dreams are tested long before the gun goes.
This is not the image most people imagine… 
Not just sunsets, trade winds, and quiet oceans. 
This is the other side. Soaked in a survival suit. Sleeping on the cabin floor to stay in place. 
Watching every gust, every shift, every movement of the sea. Alone. 
As the wind builds and the boat heels hard under sudden squalls, the reality sets in: fatigue, cold, and isolation are constant companions — and mistakes are not an option. 
This is preparation. This is commitment. This is the price of standing on the start line of the world’s most demanding solo race. 
From chaos to calm, from fear to focus — every mile sailed now is a step closer to Les Sables d’Olonne… and to the challenge ahead.
 
From The Jerusalem Post by Meital Sharabi
 
No GPS, no stopovers and no outside help: Daniel Pinsky begins the Golden Globe Race in September, chasing a dream while representing Israel.

In less than two months, Daniel Pinsky will cut himself off from the rest of the world.

For approximately 250 days, he will sail solo around the globe with no GPS, no internet, no stopovers, and no outside assistance. Just him, an 11-meter sailboat, paper charts, a sextant, and endless oceans.

On September 6, he will stand at the starting line of the Golden Globe Race - one of the world's toughest sailing competitions - and become the first Israeli ever to take on this extraordinary challenge.

Daniel Pinsky.
(photo credit: Courtesy of those photographed)
 
Just before embarking on the journey of a lifetime, he spoke about the storms that nearly cost him his life, his fears about loneliness, and the deeper meaning he has found in this voyage.
Daniel Pinsky
Age: 35
Marital status: Single
Profession: Mechanical Engineering Technician
Residence: Lives aboard his sailboat at Herzliya Marina. He grew up in Ariel and, at the age of 14, enrolled at the Israeli Naval Officers School in Acre, where he fell in love with the sea.
 
Daniel Pinsky and the charts that will guide him throughout the race. (credit: Daniel Pinsky)
"At 23, I Bought a Boat and Moved Onboard"

Where did your love affair with the sea begin?

"At 14, I transferred to the Naval Officers School in Acre, and that's really where everything started. Later, I served in the Israeli Navy, and while I was a student, I worked at the port. My entire life has revolved around the sea in one way or another.
"When I was 23, I bought my first sailboat and moved aboard it at Herzliya Marina. Even back then, I knew that one day I'd fulfill my dream of sailing around the world."
Today, Pinsky is in France, completing the final preparations before the Golden Globe Race begins on September 6.
"This Race Takes Us Back to 1968"

What makes this race so unique?

"The first race took place in 1968, when the British newspaper The Sunday Times offered a prize to anyone who could sail solo around the world in a yacht. Ever since, the race has recreated the sailing conditions of that era.
"That means no GPS, no digital displays, no smartphones, no electronic navigation systems - just traditional navigation, paper charts, and a great deal of experience."

What does the course look like?

"The race starts in Les Sables-d'Olonne on France's Atlantic coast. From there, we sail south through the Atlantic Ocean, round the Cape of Good Hope, continue beneath Australia and New Zealand, cross the Southern Ocean, round Cape Horn at the southern tip of South America, and then head north across the Atlantic back to the finish line in France."
 
Daniel Pinsky. Food supplies are one of the challenges of the voyage. (credit: Daniel Pinsky)
No Stopovers. No Rescue. No Help.

Throughout the race, competitors are prohibited from receiving any outside assistance.
"You can't stop along the way. You can't receive food, fuel, spare parts, or even weather information. Any outside assistance results in immediate disqualification."
Even the onboard equipment is strictly regulated.
"GPS devices, digital watches, and smartphones are prohibited. Even e-books aren't allowed. If I want to read, I have to bring printed books. If I want to listen to music, I'll use a radio cassette player."

What about the boats themselves?
 
"They have to be older production models built before the end of the 1980s, no longer than 36 feet, and of traditional design. The whole idea is to face the ocean almost exactly as sailors did more than half a century ago."
 
Canned food is a major part of his diet. (credit: Daniel Pinsky)
"I'm Setting Off With My Entire Life Packed Onto the Boat"

Competitors must load their boats with enough equipment and provisions to last seven to ten months.
"If I forget something, I'm in trouble. There's no way to replace it along the route."

At least you can fish, right?

"Yes - and if I'm lucky, I'll enjoy fresh fish. But I'm not counting on it. Everything I'll need for the voyage is already onboard."
According to Pinsky, finishing times depend on weather conditions and the sailor's performance.
"The fastest sailors finish in around 210 days, while others take more than 320. I expect to spend roughly 250 days at sea."
 
Preparing for the voyage is a critical part of the challenge. (credit: Daniel Pinsky)
"Suddenly, I Realized It Was My Time"

When did you decide to take on this challenge?

"I'd known about this race for years and followed it with great excitement. I admired the people who dared to participate, but I never thought I was truly ready. I felt I didn't have enough knowledge or experience.
"About ten months ago, everything suddenly clicked. I realized this was my moment. From the second I made the decision, I threw myself into preparing to reach the starting line."

For the past five years, the sea has been his home.

He left Israel with his former partner, crossed both the Mediterranean and the Atlantic, sailed throughout the Caribbean, and spent time living in Panama. Later, he returned to Europe aboard the same boat, completing his second Atlantic crossing.
"It's not like I suddenly decided to jump into the deep end. Everything I've done over the past several years has been preparation for this moment."
"Storms Are Terrifying, But Loneliness May Be Even More Dangerous"

What scares you more - the sea or the loneliness?

"The storms are more frightening in terms of immediate danger. When you're battling the sea, you're in survival mode. You don't have time to think about whether you're cold or in pain - you simply do whatever it takes to stay alive.
"But loneliness is the challenge I still don't know how I'll respond to. You can fall into depression or lose motivation. Everyone deals with it differently."
During his most recent preparation voyage, which lasted 39 days, he already experienced some difficult moments.
"There were days when I didn't feel like doing anything, but I always managed to pull myself out of it. This time, though, the journey will last many times longer."
"There Is No Room for Mistakes in the Southern Ocean"

What's the worst-case scenario?

"The sea has unimaginable power. I'm alone on a small boat, and I have no real way of defeating it. One violent storm can sink the boat."
His greatest concern is finding himself in distress in the middle of the Southern Ocean, hundreds or even thousands of kilometers from land.
"Out there, helicopters can't reach you. Even if a ship changes course to rescue you, it could take days. If you end up in the freezing water, it only takes a few minutes to die from hypothermia."
Despite the race's strict rules, safety remains a top priority.
"The boat carries a life raft, satellite phones, emergency beacons, and tracking transmitters. In an emergency, I can call for help."
 
 
The ocean waters are Daniel's natural shower during the voyage. (credit: Daniel Pinsky)
"I Thought I Wasn't Going to Survive"

Even after years at sea, one experience still haunts him.

It happened last November, shortly after purchasing the boat he will race.
"I knew I had to leave the United States before winter arrived. If I'd stayed, I'd have been trapped by storms that would prevent me from heading south."
Instead, the weather caught him first.
"I sailed into the worst storm I've ever experienced. Winds reached 60 knots, and the waves were around 10 meters high. When your deck sits barely a meter above the water, every wave looks like a skyscraper."
For 18 straight hours, he had to steer manually.
"The autopilot simply couldn't handle the load. I couldn't let go of the helm for even a second because if the boat turned the wrong way, one wave could have rolled it over."
During those 18 hours, he didn't eat, sleep, or even go to the bathroom.
"I was freezing. I was completely exhausted. There were moments when I truly didn't know if I'd survive."
Eventually, realizing he had no strength left, he took one final measure.
"I went below deck, sealed everything shut, lay down beneath the table, and surrounded myself with cushions and gear, hoping that if the boat rolled over, I wouldn't be thrown around. I simply waited for the storm to pass."
Even after the wind dies down, he explains, the ocean doesn't calm immediately.
"It can take another day or two before the waves settle. All you can do is wait and hope the boat holds together."

Navigating Like Sailors Did Centuries Ago

One of the race's greatest challenges is navigation.
Unlike most modern sailors, Pinsky will have no GPS or electronic navigation systems.

How do you navigate without GPS for eight months?

"Using a sextant, paper charts, and a lot of calculations. The sextant is an astronomical navigation instrument that sailors have relied on for centuries. It allows you to determine your position using the sun, moon, and stars. Every observation is done manually, then you calculate your position and plot it on a paper chart."
Alongside the sextant, he'll rely on a mechanical log that measures the boat's speed and distance through the water using a small propeller towed behind the vessel.
"Even on cloudy days, when you can't see the sun or stars, there are still ways to keep navigating."
According to him, the boat typically covers between 120 and 140 nautical miles per day - roughly 240 kilometers - provided the wind cooperates.
 
 
The voyage is expected to last around 250 days. (credit: Daniel Pinsky)
"The Fatigue Isn't Just From Lack of Sleep"

One of the race's less talked-about challenges is relentless exhaustion.
"You can't sleep through the night. You sleep in short intervals because you constantly need to check your surroundings and make sure the boat hasn't changed course."
But, he says, fatigue isn't caused only by sleep deprivation.
"You spend months living in a damp environment. The skin on your hands and feet begins to peel, every task requires physical effort, you're constantly raising and lowering sails, cooking, repairing equipment. Your body gradually wears down."

Why "Exodus"?

Pinsky named his boat Exodus, and the choice was no coincidence.
"The name is associated with the biblical Exodus - a journey into the unknown that transforms those who undertake it. I feel this race will do the same. The person who starts on September 6 and the one who crosses the finish line will be two very different people."
For him, the name carries an additional layer of meaning.
"I feel as though the boat carries part of our people's story with it, and that gives me strength."
"I Want Israel to Be Seen in Other Contexts Too"
Pinsky is entering the race privately, without significant government or commercial backing. But in his eyes, he represents more than himself.
"I want this journey to become something bigger than my personal dream. If I can get people back home to follow the voyage and be inspired by it, then I've accomplished something."
On a national level, he believes the mission carries another message.
"I want Israel to appear in the world through positive stories as well - not only in the context of wars and crises."
 
Daniel's official registration for the race. (credit: Daniel Pinsky)
"My Mother Nearly Fainted"

How did your family react?

"Honestly? My mother would be delighted if I gave up the whole idea. When I told her I was planning to enter the race, she nearly fainted. For weeks, she tried to convince me to abandon the plan."
Communication with home will also be extremely limited.
Along the route, there are only two designated points where he will be allowed to hand letters or memory cards to the race organizers, who will then forward them to his family. Other than that, he will have almost no contact with the outside world for months.

A Dream That Costs a Fortune

Taking part in the race is also a major financial undertaking.
"My budget is around €150,000. A large portion of that goes toward mandatory safety equipment required by the organizers - satellite phones, emergency beacons, backup systems, and survival gear."
Some competitors, he says, benefit from major sponsors and full support teams, but he is working with a relatively modest budget.
"I'm doing the best I can with what I have."

What's Next After the Finish Line?

When asked where he sees himself in ten years, Pinsky's answer comes as no surprise.
"I still have plenty of dreams. One of them is to sail a yacht to Antarctica and navigate among the icebergs."
But there's another dream as well.
"I hope that in ten years I'll have a family - and that the next time I head out to sea, I won't be sailing alone."
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Saturday, September 12, 2026

Kayaking

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Friday, September 11, 2026

Hello Equal Earth: what the UN’s new world map will change


People have long projected their known worlds on maps. 
This depiction, from Gerardus Mercator’s copy of Geography by Claudius Ptolemy, dates back to second-century Alexandria, Egypt. 
Credit: Royal Geographical Society via Getty
 
From Nature By Dhruv Shenai

What the UN vote to ditch the Mercator projection means for education, navigation and public perception.

A view of the world that has prevailed for around 450 years has been challenged.
On 4 September, the United Nations General Assembly voted to phase out use of the Mercator map, a sixteenth-century projection that is widely used but has been criticized for not representing countries’ sizes accurately.

The UN resolution instead endorses use of the Equal Earth projection, which better shows the relative sizes of land masses.
That’s an important step towards correcting biases in the Mercator map, researchers say, even though that projection will still be useful in some scientific applications.

“Changing the projection used for global representation has geographic, educational and symbolic significance,” says Melinda Laituri, a geographer at Colorado State University in Fort Collins.

Projection preferences

The Mercator projection, presented by Flemish cartographer Gerardus Mercator in 1569, shows the meridians as straight lines — allowing for easy navigation with compasses.
It gained popularity from the eighteenth century, at a time of increased European maritime expansion and became the go-to map for governments and classrooms the world over.
Most web-based map services, including Google Maps and MapQuest, adopted it.

But critics point out that it shows the Northern Hemisphere as disproportionately large, because it increasingly stretches land masses — nearly 70% of which are north of the Equator — the closer they get to the poles.
For example, Canada and Russia seem much larger than they really are.
And Greenland and Africa seem to be similar sizes even though Africa’s area is about 14 times larger than Greenland’s.

That’s problematic, say researchers, because people are inclined to conflate size and importance.
“Maps don’t simply identify the location of places.
They also exist as social texts which influence how we imagine the importance, centrality or peripheral position of places,” says Derek Alderman, a geographer at the University of Tennessee in Knoxville.

“The effect of the Mercator projection on people’s mental map of the world is difficult to quantify.
It was a common assumption among cartographers that the Mercator projection has strong cultural influence and may be doing irreparable damage to our ability to think accurately about the world,” says Bernhard Jenny, a cartographer at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia, and co-creator of the Equal Earth projection.
Jenny cites a research article from 2009 showing that map readers don’t tend to compensate for distortions even when they know they exist 1.

Because all maps are projections from the 3D globe onto a 2D surface, they inevitably distort shapes, distances, areas and directions.
The Equal Earth projection, developed in 2018, shows the relative sizes of land masses more accurately than its Mercator counterpart does by curving the meridians (see ‘Bent into shape’).
However, this affects some shapes and angles, notably in New Zealand, which is stretched diagonally and sits on the edge of the map.
 


What will this change?

How widely used the Equal Earth projection will be remains to be seen.
The resolution was proposed by Togo with the backing of the African Union and the geography research community.
They say that shrinking Africa affects how the continent is perceived in media, education and policy.
Six nations abstained from the vote and only one, the United States, voted against, saying that the resolution "mocks the work and purpose" of the United Nations.
In the same week, after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to rename Lake Ontario as Lake America, Google Maps and Apple Maps made this change for US-based users.

“The resolution is non-binding.
No country is compelled to remove a Mercator map tomorrow and Google is not suddenly required to redesign every digital map,” says Ashley Gunther, a geographer at the University of South Africa in Pretoria.
“If the vote does not eventually change geography education and the default world maps encountered on digital platforms, then its impact will remain primarily symbolic.”

On the technological side, geographic information systems — software that store, manage, analyse and map spatial data — will continue to use the Mercator projection, says Dawn Wright, an oceanographer and chief scientist of the Environmental Systems Research Institute (Esri) in Redlands, California.
“The Mercator projection is not going away, as it is still appropriate for marine navigation.
This is because mariners can measure their compass bearings most effectively on a Mercator map,” she says.

Japan demanding that new UN map, which places Kuril Islands under russian jurisdiction, be revised
 
Wright adds that the Equal Earth projection is already being used for scholarly research “such as population density studies, land use and climate vulnerability mapping, especially when representing these characteristics at a global scale”.
Geographers and other researchers around the world are excited by the UN resolution and keen to see how its adoption will progress over time.

But Gunther says that “publishers, international organizations, universities and companies should be engaged, and geography teachers should use this moment not merely to introduce Equal Earth but to teach a generation of students to be critical readers of maps”.

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Thursday, September 10, 2026

How do you navigate a drying channel when the charts disagree?



From YachtingMonthly by Rachel Sprot 

Tim and Josh have found a space for their Bowman 40, Artemis, which has a 1.5m draught, at Treluggan Boatyard which is five miles off the Tamar up the River Lynher.

The difficulty is that the river completely dries for the last three miles and doesn’t appear to have any formal buoyage (there is mention of some withies and posts).
The lift-out has been scheduled for 1630, an hour and a half before HW Springs.


 Localization with the GeoGarage platform (UKHO raster nautical chart)
 
Localization with the GeoGarage platform (UKHO ENC vector chart)
 
The yard manager assures them they’ll be able to negotiate the river at this time and has sent them some pilotage instructions, but they’ve checked the charts and aren’t so sure.

Navionics shows a relatively wide channel with drying heights of around 2m.

Navionics chart & zoom at the level of Treluggan Boatyard
 
The Imray chart uses a single line to depict the deepest part of the river (which corresponds with the yard’s instructions), but crosses a drying height of 3.3m.
 
 Localization with the GeoGarage platform (Imray raster nautical chart)

They’d be making their passage with a height of tide of 4m so if the Navionics chart is correct, they’ll make it up but according to the Imray chart, they won’t.


What should they do?


 
Navigating a drying channel when the charts disagree
 
This question is really about how to navigate in areas with limited navigational data.
Tom and Josh have identified a discrepancy between three sources of information – the Navionics and Imray charts, and the yard manager – which is a good indicator that the charts here are a guide, not gospel.
When they visited the yard there were plenty of boats with similar draughts ashore, albeit most of them were smaller than a Bowman 40.

Tim and Josh need as much information as they can get to try and identify the run of the channel.
I would be suspicious of the wide channel shown by Navionics – usually the top of a muddy river has a narrow deep-water channel surrounded by steep mud banks, which corresponds more closely with the Imray chart and the advice from the yard manager.

Google Maps imagery

In the upper reaches of rivers, extra information might include Google Maps (with any luck, satellite view may show the river at low water), drone footage from YouTube, and even OS maps, which can be a good indicator of the baseline of the riverbed.

Owing to the lack of reliable chart data, they need to be prepared for a minor grounding.
Occasionally touching the edge of a mudbank at slow speed in a heavy, long-keeled yacht like a Bowman 40, would, in my mind, carry low risk of damage.

If they were doing this trip frequently in a lightweight yacht with a fin keel this would be different.
They need to monitor the echosounder constantly and keep speed to a minimum.

Less likely, but worth considering, would be a full stranding.
This is best avoided by approaching with plenty of flood tide remaining to float off.
An hour and a half before high water means there’s over a metre of tide left to rise, which should be plenty to get them out of a tricky situation.

However, I wouldn’t de-rig the deck in readiness for the haul out – the anchor needs to be ready to go and dinghy available, plus a headsail rigged which could be partially unfurled (and even backed) to induce a heel if necessary.

Carrying warm clothes and a few basic stores on board is always sensible; you never know quite how things might turn out.

Finally, I would set a snail trail with a high-resolution track on the plotter or a navigation app (Navionics does this very well), to help with getting out again when they relaunch.
If they note the height of tide at the time of the minimum reading on the echosounder, they’ll be able to calculate how much height of tide they need for the departure.

Sometimes a low water dinghy expedition can be useful, but with over 2 miles of drying approach channel they’d need to time this well and to have a reliable outboard.
If they do go ahead with a dinghy, a navigation app recording their track will be their best guide when they come in by yacht, though planting a withy or two would be the traditional way.

Although they have a modest draught, in my opinion a Bowman 40 is on the limits for this sort of creek-crawling venture.
It’s a heavy boat to manage if they do go aground, and backing sails, rowing out anchors and inducing heel all become more arduous.
However, with careful pilotage this is unlikely, and once they’re in, the yard is supremely sheltered so it’s a good place to overwinter.


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Wednesday, September 9, 2026

Arteries of empires: Geopolitical siege and the new strategic map of maritime chokepoints


Illustration: TBS

 From The Business Standard by Nasif Tanjim
 
Until global powers establish stronger, cooperative enforcement mechanisms to protect maritime routes, the global economy will remain deeply vulnerable to recurring disruptions, the costs of which are ultimately borne by everyday consumers across the globe 

The global economy is anchored to a remarkably fragile geometry of maritime trade routes increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical conflict.

Nearly 90% of global trade is transported by sea, representing 80% of international commerce by volume and more than 70% by value.
Squeezed through a handful of narrow natural straits and man-made canals, these maritime chokepoints serve as primary arteries for raw materials and finished goods.

However, when these channels become congested or closed due to wars, shipping accidents, or regional security threats, the global economy experiences immediate distress through soaring freight rates, delayed transits, and extreme market volatility.

In an era of escalating great-power rivalry and active warfare, these vital passages have increasingly been weaponised, exposing the severe limitations of international maritime law and forcing a fundamental reorganisation of global supply chain networks.

Battlefields on the water: The siege of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and Suez

The ongoing military escalations in the Middle East demonstrate the terrifying vulnerability of the world's most critical energy and transit corridors.

The Strait of Hormuz, wedged between Iran and Oman, connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea.
Measuring 39 kilometres at its narrowest point, this strait handles 20–21 million barrels of crude oil daily — representing roughly a quarter of all seaborne oil — and 20% of global liquefied natural gas exports.

Yet, this pivot was shattered when the United States-Israeli war on Iran erupted on 28 February, 2026, prompting Tehran to effectively close the strait to almost all tankers.

This blockade has triggered severe disruptions, particularly penalising Asian energy importers.
For developing countries like Bangladesh, the crisis is acutely felt as domestic industries depend on the Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb straits to ship vital energy and fertilizer supplies.

While Oman has proposed regional management and voluntary fees, Washington insists that unilateral closures violate transit passage rights guaranteed under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

Further south, the 32-kilometre-wide Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and Suez Canal, carries 12% of global trade.
Recent Houthi missile strikes on Saudi-affiliated and Western vessels have turned this transit into an active combat zone, forcing over 70% of Suez Canal traffic to detour.

Bypassing the 193-kilometre Egyptian canal via South Africa's Cape of Good Hope adds up to 4,000 nautical miles and 10 to 14 days of travel.
This structural detour inflicts a heavy economic toll, costing global trade $10.7 billion annually in delays and $3.4 billion in elevated freight costs, delaying vital energy and fertiliser deliveries by up to a month.

The Malacca bottleneck: Overcrowding at the throat of asia

The Strait of Malacca, running 500 miles between the Malay Peninsula and Sumatra, connects the Indian Ocean with the Pacific and South China Sea.
As East Asia's primary maritime highway, it carries 60% of global maritime trade and handles over 94,000 ship crossings annually.
It handles 23 million barrels of oil daily, making it the world's busiest oil transit chokepoint, even exceeding Hormuz.

Nearing its capacity limits, the corridor is expected to exceed safe operational thresholds by the end of the decade.
To mitigate this bottleneck, Thailand has proposed an ambitious 100-kilometre landbridge railway/road bypass to offload cargo and completely avoid the Malacca Strait.

Continental gatekeepers: Bosporus, Danish Straits and Gibraltar

In Europe, continental gatekeepers wield immense strategic leverage.
The Turkish Straits – the Bosporus and Dardanelles — are the sole link between the Black Sea and Mediterranean.
Measuring only 700 metres wide at its narrowest point, the Bosporus sees 55,000 transits annually.
Turkey regulates military passage through these waters under the 1936 Montreux Convention, a power actively invoked following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

The Black Sea's vulnerability was underscored when blockaded ports severely disrupted global wheat and fertilizer supplies, driving food prices to historic highs.
Similarly, the narrow Danish Straits are the primary, highly contested gateway for Russian seaborne oil exports.

On Europe's western edge, the Strait of Gibraltar, ceded to Britain under the 1713 Treaty of Utrecht, remains a contested 13-kilometre borderland with Spain.



The Polar Silk Road: Hopes and hazards of the new Arctic shipping route

As climate change accelerates polar ice melting, the Arctic Ocean is transitioning from an impenetrable frozen wilderness into a highly contested commercial and military corridor.

Between 2024 and 2025, the extent of Arctic sea ice during its winter peak phase fell by 5.8%, marking the largest recorded drop in history and offering longer windows of summer navigability.

This ecological transformation has allowed China and Russia to deepen their strategic partnership by actively commercialising the Northern Sea Route (NSR) along Russia's Arctic coast.

Promoted by Chinese President Xi Jinping as the "Ice Silk Road", this polar corridor represents an appealing alternative to traditional southern routes.
Recently, the Chinese private shipping firm Sea Legend officially launched the first regularly scheduled seasonal container service connecting eastern China to Europe.
A test voyage demonstrated that a transit from Ningbo to the port of Felixstowe in eastern England takes just 20 days — slashing the 40 days required via the Suez Canal and avoiding the geopolitical disruptions plaguing the Middle East.

Logistically, the Arctic route is highly suitable for low-temperature, heat-sensitive and time-critical cargoes such as lithium-ion batteries and photovoltaic panels.
For Russia, the NSR is a vital economic lifeline to bypass Western sanctions.

Moscow has increasingly used the route to transport liquefied gas and crude oil from heavily sanctioned projects like Arctic LNG-2 and Yamal LNG directly to China.
Blacklisted Russian tankers frequently carry out ship-to-ship cargo transfers in secluded bays off the Kamchatka Peninsula to transport sanctioned gas directly to dedicated terminals in southern Chinese ports.

However, the Polar Silk Road is fraught with severe operational, environmental, and political hazards.
The route remains unpredictable and seasonal, as ice-free navigation is only possible during summer, and ships risk getting trapped in sudden ice formations, requiring expensive nuclear icebreaker escorts managed by Russia's state nuclear agency, Rosatom.

Furthermore, environmental organisations warn that increased shipping in the fragile Arctic ecosystem by older, poorly maintained vessels operating as part of Russia's shadow fleet significantly increases the risk of catastrophic oil spills and soot deposition, which accelerates localised melting.

Sovereignty and geopolitical control remain major friction points.
Permits to navigate the NSR are strictly controlled by Russia, meaning that transits are highly dependent on Moscow's political goodwill.

This expanding corridor has triggered deep military alarm among Western nations and Nato allies, who launched a specialised military mission named Arctic Sentry in February 2026 to curb Sino-Russian military projection.
Furthermore, the United States has signed a shipbuilding pact with Finland to rapidly expand its own icebreaker fleet to counter China's polar presence.

Private Chinese operators have had to establish new, small corporate entities to navigate the route to shield their larger parent companies from secondary Western sanctions associated with dealing with blacklisted Russian energy firms.

Ultimately, the Polar Silk Road remains a valuable strategic hedge for Beijing, rather than a year-round replacement for traditional shipping lanes.

The erosion of maritime law and the path to supply chain resilience

The systemic crises across the world's maritime corridors have exposed the fundamental limitations of international law in safeguarding global commerce.
The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea was designed on the optimistic assumption that strategic straits would remain open to free transit even during times of heightened political tension.

However, the weak enforcement mechanisms of international law have proven entirely insufficient when confronted with the immediate security interests of regional and global powers.
As coastal nations and militant groups continue to weaponise these chokepoints as leverage in geopolitical disputes, global supply chains must adapt to a more volatile and fragmented reality.

For international businesses and importing nations, the path forward requires a transition from just-in-time supply chains to highly resilient logistics strategies.
This transition involves maintaining larger emergency inventories, partnering with multiple transportation providers, and actively diversifying shipping routes to hedge against localised disruptions.

Until global powers establish stronger, cooperative enforcement mechanisms to protect these maritime commons, the global economy will remain deeply vulnerable to recurring disruptions, the costs of which are ultimately borne by everyday consumers across the globe.
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Tuesday, September 8, 2026

Explainer: the Northwest Passage’s shipping potential, legal status, and what’s at stake


Photo Credit Toggle
Alison J. Cook, Jackie Dawson, Stephen E. L. Howell, Jean E. Holloway & Mike Brady, Communications Earth & EnvironmentThe map shows all ship tracks 1990–2018 (grey lines), and shipping routes (four different line colors) along the Northwest Passage. Map republished under CC By 4.0 license from Cook, A.J., Dawson, J., Howell, S.E.L. et al. Sea ice choke points reduce the length of the shipping season in the Northwest Passage. Commun Earth Environ 5, 362 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01477-6. Ship tracks from Pizzolato et al.; updated. Land relief from the International Bathymetric Chart of the Arctic Ocean V3 (IBCAO).
 
From Harvard Kennedy School by Justin Barnes

With climate change accelerating and global interest in transiting the Passage rising, the unresolved debate over the Northwest Passage's legal status could have geopolitical implications for North America and maritime claims elsewhere in the world.

Arctic Initiative Predoctoral Research Fellow Justin Barnes produced this explainer ahead of participating in the course Arctic Future Pathfinders, a part of the One Ocean Expedition. Justin sailed aboard the S/S Statsraad Lehmkuhl from Nuuk, Greenland, into Baffin Bay, until ice conditions forced the expedition to cancel its planned voyage through the Northwest Passage. We are grateful to UiT the Arctic University of Norway for supporting Justin's participation in the course. Learn more about Arctic Future Pathfinders.

The Northwest Passage (NWP or Passage) is a series of maritime routes that run through Canada’s Arctic Archipelago. European explorers began to seek the Passage in the 16th century as part of a shortcut between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans to enhance trade with Asia, but a navigable route eluded them until the early 20th century due to thick sea ice and challenging conditions. Meanwhile, Inuit have lived and successfully navigated the land, waters, and ice of the NWP for time immemorial.

In recent decades, technological advances paired with the impacts of climate change on sea ice have made transiting the NWP more feasible under certain conditions, renewing interest in the Passage for shipping, tourism, and access to Arctic resources. The NWP is often hailed as a potentially valuable shortcut between East Asia and Western Europe – shaving upwards of 7,000km (~3,480 nautical miles) off the route through the Panama Canal – but unreliable conditions, sparse infrastructure, and high risks make its real-world value far less certain.

With climate trends accelerating and global interest in the Arctic rising, interest in transiting the NWP for shipping or military purposes could reignite an unresolved – yet peacefully managed – debate between Canada and the United States on the legal status of the NWP.

As strategic interests converge in the Arctic, important questions about the future of the NWP could arise: Who controls - or should control - these waters? How will Indigenous rights and voices shape the rules of transit through Inuit homelands, including areas previously frozen for centuries? Can navigation of the Passage be made safe without sacrificing fragile ecosystems? The answers to these questions could have geopolitical implications for North America, as well as the maritime claims of the United States, Russia, and China elsewhere in the world.

Is it possible to navigate the Northwest Passage?

The NWP is a network of possible routes passing through Canada’s Arctic Archipelago. It is possible to navigate through the NWP during certain parts of the year, but all routes are relatively narrow, shallow in places, and seasonally choked with shifting sea ice and icebergs flowing from higher latitude areas. Uncharted sea lanes along with limited marine support or response infrastructure pose significant hazards for regular shipping through the Passage. Although the NWP has seen an overall increase in vessel traffic in its various sections, the challenging geography and conditions mean that even in summer, navigation requires caution, ice-capable vessels, and often icebreaker escort.

Historically Impassable: For most of history, multi-year sea ice made the Passage effectively non-navigable year-round to European vessels. Norwegian explorer Roald Amundsen took three years to make the first complete journey through the Passage, finishing in 1906. From 1906 to 2006, only 69 complete voyages transited the NWP. It was not until 1944 that the NWP was transited during a single navigation season. However, in recent decades, global warming has dramatically reduced sea ice coverage; in summer 2007, the NWP experienced a record retreat in sea ice that marked the first full opening of the Passage in recorded history.

Experts Are Divided: Scientific projections strongly support the idea that the NWP will be open for shipping every summer for a window of time by mid-century. More recent studies have pushed back on this claim, however, suggesting that reductions in sea ice do not necessarily equate to increased ship navigability. A key 2024 study indicates that, despite recent changes along individual sections of the NWP, the overall shipping season along the route has instead been shortening since 2007. According to this study, multi-year ice is flushed southward from high-latitude regions, maintaining “choke points” along certain route sections and adding to the difficulty of routine shipping through the NWP. Nonetheless, transits are increasing as ice conditions become more navigable: it took 100 years to accumulate 69 transits, then just the next 5 years (2006–2010) to log another 69 transits.


Photo Credit Toggle
NASA image created by Jesse Allen, using data obtained courtesy of the National Snow and Ice Data Center.This image shows sea ice around the Northwest Passage as observed by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite on August 22, 2007. McClure Strait, Parry Channel, Victoria Strait, and McClintock Channel (north of Victoria Strait), all appear nearly ice-free. North of McClure Strait, an area of sea ice remains, but it is fragmented.

Who's Using It? Destination vs. Trans-Arctic Navigation: An Arctic Council report found that the number of unique ships entering the NWP area increased by 44% from 2013 – 2019 and the distance sailed by vessels increased by 107%. Most vessels operating in the NWP are re-supply cargo ships servicing communities and mines, local and commercial fishing vessels, tankers, tourist vessels (including pleasure craft), and military/research vessels, with pleasure crafts being the fastest growing sector by far. The majority of commercial ships operating in the NWP during this period were Canadian. The Scott Polar Research Institute’s record of “complete” transits by vessels that used the NWP to travel between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans also shows a steady increase, with all-time highs reached in 2023 (41 transits) and 2024 (38 transits). Between 2020 – 2024, 117 “complete” transits took place, made up of 48 (41%) yachts or other private vessels, 39 (30%) commercial vessels, 28 (23%) passenger ships, and 2 (1.7%) research or survey vessels. Although the NWP has experienced an increase in both destination and trans-Arctic passages, both pale in comparison to the 36-38 ships that pass through the Panama Canal per day under normal operation.

Risky Business: The Passage is still a risky and uncertain corridor for regular commercial shipping due to unpredictable ice conditions, a lack of deep sea ports, poor charting relative to other passages, and high insurance costs. Comparisons to the Northern Sea Route, another passage along the Arctic coast of Russia, have made the case that the NWP is much more constrained and unpredictable. Shipping companies have been cautious, and few commercial ships (47) and passenger vessels (91) have ever attempted full transits. The overall increase in vessel traffic in the NWP could lead to an increase in accidents requiring an environmental and rescue response. A lack of support infrastructure and an overall decrease in highly strengthened ships operating in the Canadian Arctic more broadly exacerbates these risks.


Captain Wayne Duffet, Commander Corey Gleason, and Commander Michele Tessier of the Royal Canadian Navy explain the difficulties of operating in the harsh ice conditions of the Canadian Arctic.


The legal status of the Northwest Passage: International strait or internal waters of Canada and Inuit Nunangat?

The international legal status of the Northwest Passage remains unresolved. Canada maintains that the Passage lies within its internal waters, under full Canadian sovereignty. Whereas the United States has taken the position that it is an international strait, through which foreign vessels can transit freely without Canadian consent.

The U.S. Argument for an International Strait: The United States asserts that the NWP qualifies as an international strait under Article 37 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), arguing that the NWP connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and thus must be treated as a strait with a right of transit passage for all nations. The U.S. position on international straits is that they do not depend on a waterway being ice-free or frequently used historically – if a passage connects two high seas/exclusive economic zone (EEZ) areas, it can be considered an international strait subject to transit rights. The United States has never accepted Canada’s historic waters claim and regularly reasserts that the Passage is an international waterway.

The Canadian Argument for Internal Waters: Canada’s position is that the NWP lies entirely within Canada’s territorial waters. In 1985, Canada drew baselines around its Arctic Archipelago that define the outer limit of Canada’s historic internal waters. Canada asserts that it has full sovereignty over the “historic internal waters” winding through the islands of the Arctic Archipelago that is based on historical exploration and effective governance of these waters. As part of this assertion, Canadian officials have emphasized that from time immemorial Inuit have used and occupied the waters and sea ice between these islands “as they have used and occupied the land,” which for Canada, strengthens its historic title.

Inuit – Historic Use and Indigenous Rights: Inuit in Canada emphasize that the NWP is inseparable from their homeland, Inuit Nunangat, and must not be regarded purely as an external or strategic waterway, necessitating legal recognition of Indigenous rights and Inuit-led co management in any governance or policy framework. Inuit assert that their continuous presence for millennia and relationship with the local environment establishes both ancestral rights and stewardship responsibilities. The Inuit Circumpolar Council (ICC) Canada has argued that the U.S. position is inconsistent with the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (UNDRIP), noting that Inuit have rights to the lands, waters, and ice they have “traditionally owned, occupied or otherwise used or acquired.” This position is based on treaties and constructive agreements between Inuit and the Government of Canada, including the Nunavut Land Claims Agreement among others, that “recognize both Inuit sovereignty and Canadian sovereignty over the Arctic, including the Northwest Passage.” The Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami’s (the national representation organization for Inuit in Canada) Nilliajut 2 report asserts that Inuit voices are essential in defining the Passage’s future, stating that “we must be consulted before any decisions are made and any research is done.”

Perspectives from Russia and China: Russia’s interpretation mirrors Canada's, which is central to its sovereign control over the Northern Sea Route. Parallels have also been made between the NWP debate and China’s claim that the Qiongzhou Strait in the South China Sea is part of China’s internal waters, an assertion that the United States formally rejects. However, the Chinese government has never explicitly recognized the Canadian position. China, as a self-proclaimed “near-Arctic state,” has been more cautious and ambiguous, formally respecting Arctic states’ jurisdiction but emphasizing international law and freedom of navigation as it pursues its “Polar Silk Road” across the Arctic.

Agree to Disagree? The U.S.-Canada 1988 Arctic Cooperation Agreement: Two diplomatic incidents - the transiting of the NWP by the U.S. tanker SS Manhattan in 1969 and the U.S. Coast Guard icebreaker Polar Sea in 1985 - sparked strong public and political reactions in Canada. In both instances, despite important contexts unique to each case, the United States did not formally request permission but coordinated with Canada throughout the passage.

To manage tensions, the two countries signed the 1988 Arctic Cooperation Agreement: the United States would notify Canada of voyages of American icebreakers conducting research while transiting the NWP without officially asking for permission, and Canada would grant consent routinely without the United States officially asking for it. The deal preserved both sides’ legal positions while serving as a model for Ottawa and Washington to manage the NWP disagreement. This has been described as a pragmatic “agree-to-disagree” framework that eased tensions but left the underlying legal debate unresolved.

For now, the official line on both sides remains unchanged. Some observers have proposed that the two nations find a mutually beneficial resolution (for instance, a joint management regime that acknowledges Canadian legal control while assuring innocent passage to foreign ships). Other experts feel that any negotiation could risk one side’s core interests, and that the existing compromise, ambiguous as it is, has worked without major incident. This longstanding debate has been generally well-managed, and so far, poses “no acute sovereignty or security concerns to Canada.”


Photo Credit Toggle
AP Photo/David GoldmanThe Finnish icebreaker MSV Nordica, pushes through floating sea ice on the Victoria Strait while traversing the Northwest Passage in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, Friday, July 21, 2017. The voyage was registered with Canadian authorities.


Why does the legal status of the Northwest Passage matter?

Geopolitical Implications: Both the United States and Canada want to avoid creating unwanted precedents. For example, a concession by the United States in the NWP could undermine the U.S. stance against excessive maritime claims elsewhere in the world, as well as its own freedom of navigation in other strategically important regions. The United States maintains an active Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) program to contest such claims and preserve global maritime access.

North American Security: Some analysts note that unregulated access by potentially any nation’s vessels (including strategic rivals) could harm North American security. If the Passage is considered an international strait, there would also be an international air corridor above each of its routes. Foreign military or criminal vessels and/or aircraft might attempt to use it to transit through North America’s northern flank – a scenario that would be a major concern for both the United States and Canada. If Canada’s internal-waters claim were accepted, Canada could legally bar or strictly control foreign vessels and aircraft, preventing, for example, Russian or Chinese naval use of the Passage – a result the United States might quietly appreciate.

Environmental Protection: The possibility for increased shipping raises concerns over the impacts of oil spills and pollution on Arctic ecosystems. If the NWP is recognized as Canadian internal waters, Canada could continue to enforce its domestic laws and environmental standards. However, if it is instead treated as an international strait, Canada could only impose internationally approved environmental standards under UNCLOS, which are less strict than Canadian rules in certain areas. This distinction carries consequences for managing oil spill risks, protecting Arctic ecosystems, and safeguarding the food security of Indigenous communities that rely on marine resources.

Respect for Indigenous Rights: Deeming the NWP an international strait would have deep implications for Inuit, who hold legal agreements with the Government of Canada regarding co-management and self-government. It is unclear in this case how the respect for these rights could be negotiated into a multilateral agreement about the NWP, but a legal outcome that bypasses Indigenous input would undermine modern land claims agreements and UNDRIP.

Search and Rescue (SAR): SAR challenges in the NWP, like the North American Arctic broadly, result from minimal infrastructure, limited communication coverage, and harsh weather conditions. Long distances between communities, unpredictable sea ice conditions, and a lack of nearby ports or airfields mean that emergency response times can be dangerously slow. Currently, cooperative frameworks like the 2011 Arctic Search and Rescue Agreement mitigate these concerns, with Canada’s zone of responsibility covering the passages through its Archipelago while stipulating that these boundaries do not affect sovereignty claims. This arrangement ensures that regardless of the NWP’s legal status, Canada and its Arctic partners can effectively cooperate on SAR operations in the region. However, if the NWP is deemed an international strait, Canada could not deny vessels that do not meet its domestic standards, potentially straining Canada’s already limited capacity to respond to incidents.


Photo Credit Toggle
Peter Prokosch via GRID-ArendalAn Inuit hunter captures a ring seal in Mittimatalik (Pond Inlet), Nunavut, Canada, where seal hunting on the sea ice is an important part of life. Inuit in Canada emphasize that the Northwest Passage is inseparable from their homeland. Increased ship traffic through the Northwest Passage could raise the risk of pollution and endanger the marine resources on which Indigenous communities rely.


Conclusion

At this time, both the United States and Canada “agree to disagree” on the status of the NWP. Looking forward, how the Passage is managed in the future will depend on the rate of change and whether collaborative frameworks continue to exist to manage different perspectives. Whether the NWP becomes a space of peaceful governance or contested access will depend on proactive diplomacy, and would benefit from a commitment to Indigenous co-management and continued investment in environmental protection and maritime safety.
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