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Monday, May 12, 2025
Hurricane forecasts are more accurate than ever – NOAA funding cuts could change that, with a busy storm season coming
Radar shows a NOAA Hurricane Hunter flying through Tropical Storm Idalia during a mission in 2023. Nick Underwood/NOAA
From The Conversation by Chris Vagasky, Meteorologist and Research Program Manager, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Hurricane forecasts are more accurate than ever – NOAA funding cuts could change that, with a busy storm season coming
The National Hurricane Center’s forecasts in 2024 were its most accurate on record, from its one-day forecasts, as tropical cyclones neared the coast, to its forecasts five days into the future, when storms were only beginning to come together.
Thanks to federally funded research, forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks today are up to 75% more accurate than they were in 1990.
The National Hurricane Center’s forecasts in 2024 were its most accurate on record, from its one-day forecasts, as tropical cyclones neared the coast, to its forecasts five days into the future, when storms were only beginning to come together.
Thanks to federally funded research, forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks today are up to 75% more accurate than they were in 1990.
A National Hurricane Center forecast three days out today is about as accurate as a one-day forecast in 2002, giving people in the storm’s path more time to prepare and reducing the size of evacuations.
Accuracy will be crucial again in 2025, as meteorologists predict another active Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
Yet, cuts in staffing and threats to funding at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – which includes the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service – are diminishing operations that forecasters rely on.
Accuracy will be crucial again in 2025, as meteorologists predict another active Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
Yet, cuts in staffing and threats to funding at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – which includes the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service – are diminishing operations that forecasters rely on.
National Hurricane Center Official Track Error Trend for the Atlantic Basin between 1990 and 2024. via National Hurricane Center
I am a meteorologist who studies lightning in hurricanes and helps train other meteorologists to monitor and forecast tropical cyclones.
Here are three of the essential components of weather forecasting that have been targeted for cuts to funding and staff at NOAA.
Tracking the wind
To understand how a hurricane is likely to behave, forecasters need to know what’s going on in the atmosphere far from the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.
Hurricanes are steered by the winds around them.
To understand how a hurricane is likely to behave, forecasters need to know what’s going on in the atmosphere far from the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.
Hurricanes are steered by the winds around them.
Wind patterns detected today over the Rocky Mountains and Great Plains – places like Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska and South Dakota – give forecasters clues to the winds that will be likely along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts in the days ahead.
Satellites can’t take direct measurements, so to measure these winds, scientists rely on weather balloons. That data is essential both for forecasts and to calibrate the complicated formulas forecasters use to make estimates from satellite data.
Satellites can’t take direct measurements, so to measure these winds, scientists rely on weather balloons. That data is essential both for forecasts and to calibrate the complicated formulas forecasters use to make estimates from satellite data.
A meteorologist prepares to launch a weather balloon at Mammoth Hot Springs, Wyo.
Data collected by the balloon’s radiosonde will help predict local weather that can influence fire behavior.
However, in early 2025, the Trump administration terminated or suspendedweather balloon launches at more than a dozen locations.
That move and other cuts and threatened cuts at NOAA have raised red flags for forecasters across the country and around the world.
Forecasters everywhere, from TV to private companies, rely on NOAA’s data to do their jobs. Much of that data would be extremely expensive if not impossible to replicate.
Under normal circumstances, weather balloons are released from around 900 locations around the world at 8 a.m. and 8 p.m. Eastern time every day.
While the loss of just 12 of these profiles may not seem significant, small amounts of missing data can lead to big forecast errors.
This is an example of chaos theory, more popularly known as the butterfly effect.
A radiosonde is a small instrument package that measures temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, and air pressure every second as it rises through the atmosphere.
Author provided
The balloons carry a small instrument called a radiosonde, which records data as it rises from the surface of the Earth to around 120,000 feet above ground.
The radiosonde acts like an all-in-one weather station, beaming back details of the temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, and air pressure every 15 feet through its flight.
Together, all these measurements help meteorologists interpret the atmosphere overhead and feed into computer models used to help forecast weather around the country, including hurricanes.
Hurricane Hunters
For more than 80 years, scientists have been flying planes into hurricanes to measure each storm’s strength and help forecast its path and potential for damage.
Known as “Hurricane Hunters,” these crews from the U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA routinely conduct reconnaissance missions throughout hurricane season using a variety of instruments.
Together, all these measurements help meteorologists interpret the atmosphere overhead and feed into computer models used to help forecast weather around the country, including hurricanes.
Hurricane Hunters
For more than 80 years, scientists have been flying planes into hurricanes to measure each storm’s strength and help forecast its path and potential for damage.
Known as “Hurricane Hunters,” these crews from the U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA routinely conduct reconnaissance missions throughout hurricane season using a variety of instruments.
Similar to weather balloons, these flights are making measurements that satellites can’t.
Hurricane Hunters use Doppler radar to gauge how the wind is blowing and LiDAR to measure temperature and humidity changes.
They drop probes to measure the ocean temperature down several hundred feet to tell how much warm water might be there to fuel the storm.
A summary of 2024 Atlantic hurricane season missions flown by NOAA Hurricane Hunters shows the types of equipment used.
Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory
They also release 20 to 30 dropsondes, measuring devices with parachutes.
As the dropsondes fall through the storm, they transmit data about the temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction and air pressure every 15 feet or so from the plane to the ocean.
Dropsondes from Hurricane Hunter flights are the only way to directly measure what is occurring inside the storm.
Dropsondes from Hurricane Hunter flights are the only way to directly measure what is occurring inside the storm.
Although satellites and radars can see inside hurricanes, these are indirect measurements that do not have the fine-scale resolution of dropsonde data.
A GPS dropsonde designed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Author provided
That data tells National Hurricane Center forecasters how intense the storm is and whether the atmosphere around the storm is favorable for strengthening.
Dropsonde data also helps computer models forecast the track and intensity of storms days into the future.
Two NOAA Hurricane Hunter flight directors were laid off in February 2025, leaving only six when 10 are preferred.
Two NOAA Hurricane Hunter flight directors were laid off in February 2025, leaving only six when 10 are preferred.
Directors are the flight meteorologists aboard each flight who oversee operations and ensure the planes stay away from the most dangerous conditions.
Having fewer directors limits the number of flights that can be sent out during busy times when Hurricane Hunters are monitoring multiple storms.
Having fewer directors limits the number of flights that can be sent out during busy times when Hurricane Hunters are monitoring multiple storms.
And that would limit the accurate data the National Hurricane Center would have for forecasting storms.
Eyes in the sky
Weather satellites that monitor tropical storms from space provide continuous views of each storm’s track and intensity changes.
Weather satellites that monitor tropical storms from space provide continuous views of each storm’s track and intensity changes.
The equipment on these satellites and software used to analyze it make increasingly accurate hurricane forecasts possible.
Much of that equipment is developed by federally funded researchers.
For example, the Cooperative Institutes in Wisconsin and Colorado have developed software and methods that help meteorologists better understand the current state of tropical cyclones and forecast future intensity when aircraft reconnaissance isn’t immediately available.
For example, the Cooperative Institutes in Wisconsin and Colorado have developed software and methods that help meteorologists better understand the current state of tropical cyclones and forecast future intensity when aircraft reconnaissance isn’t immediately available.
The Jason 3 satellite, illustrated here, is one of several satellites NOAA uses during hurricane season. The satellite is a partnership among NOAA, NASA and their European counterparts. NOAA
Forecasting rapid intensification is one of the great challenges for hurricane scientists.
Forecasting rapid intensification is one of the great challenges for hurricane scientists.
It’s the dangerous shift when a tropical cyclone’s wind speeds jump by at least 35 mph (56 kilometers per hour) in 24 hours.
For example, in 2018, Hurricane Michael’s rapid intensification caught the Florida Panhandle by surprise.
For example, in 2018, Hurricane Michael’s rapid intensification caught the Florida Panhandle by surprise.
The Category 5 storm caused billions of dollars in damage across the region, including at Tyndall Air Force Base, where several F-22 Stealth Fighters were still in hangars.
NOAA’s GOES-16 satellite shows Hurricanes Irma, left, and Jose in the Atlantic Ocean on Sept. 7, 2017.
Under the federal budget proposal details released so far, including a draft of agencies’ budget plans marked up by Trump’s Office of Management and Budget, known as the passback, there is no funding for Cooperative Institutes.
There is also no funding for aircraft recapitalization.
A 2022 NOAA plan sought to purchase up to six new aircraft that would be used by Hurricane Hunters.
The passback budget also cut funding for some technology from future satellites, including lightning mappers that are used in hurricane intensity forecasting and to warn airplanes of risks.
The passback budget also cut funding for some technology from future satellites, including lightning mappers that are used in hurricane intensity forecasting and to warn airplanes of risks.
It only takes one
Tropical storms and hurricanes can have devastating effects, as Hurricanes Heleneand Milton reminded the country in 2024.
Tropical storms and hurricanes can have devastating effects, as Hurricanes Heleneand Milton reminded the country in 2024.
These storms, while well forecast, resulted in billions of dollars of damage and hundreds of fatalities.
The U.S. has been facing more intense storms, and the coastal population and value of property in harm’s way are growing.
The U.S. has been facing more intense storms, and the coastal population and value of property in harm’s way are growing.
As five former directors of the National Weather Service wrote in an open letter, cutting funding and staff from NOAA’s work that is improving forecasting and warnings ultimately threatens to leave more lives at risk.
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Sunday, May 11, 2025
Mickey Muñoz on how to surf until you’re 100 years old
Mickey Muñoz was one of the original icons of California surf culture at Malibu in the early 1950s and was among the first group of hellmen to pioneer riding big waves at Waimea Bay later that decade.
He has stunt-doubled in Hollywood surf films, invented his own surfing maneuver, shaped boards alongside the best in the business, and prone paddled farther than any sane man should.
This film is about none of those things.
Mickey is now 87 years old—or at least he thinks he is—and plans to keep riding waves until he’s 100 or so.
He’s a true professional at making lemonade when life gives him lemons and answers every question with a story that may or may not outlast your attention span.
If you aim to surf longer than most people live, click play.
From The Inertia by Alexander Haro
In the early ’50s, Mickey Muñoz cemented himself as one of California’s best surfers.
In the early ’50s, Mickey Muñoz cemented himself as one of California’s best surfers.
All these years later, he’s gone from one of California’s best surfers to a living legend in the surfing world.
A new film from the ever-talented Kyle Buthman focuses on Muñoz now, and it’s exceedingly clear that his life is a well-lived one. It’s also clear that at the age of 87 (he thinks), he’s not even close to done.
“I want to keep surfing until at least a 100 or so,” Muñoz says from a couch in a living room full of colors.
“I want to keep surfing until at least a 100 or so,” Muñoz says from a couch in a living room full of colors.
“I try and stay away from doctors, I try and eat good food and think good thoughts and run every day.”
He’s been riding waves for a very long time. The first time he stood up was on a Surf King Junior, a hollow plywood paddleboard, when he was 10 or 11 years old.
He’s been riding waves for a very long time. The first time he stood up was on a Surf King Junior, a hollow plywood paddleboard, when he was 10 or 11 years old.
“I think I first stood up in 1947 or 1948,” he remembered, “and I’m still standing. I’m privileged.”
A few years later in 1950, he got his first real surfboard, a Joe Quigg balsa board, and it changed his life.
Mickey Muñoz is 87 years old (he thinks).
His life has been incredible, and he’s not done yet.
Photos: Buthman
A few years later in 1950, he got his first real surfboard, a Joe Quigg balsa board, and it changed his life.
The next decades were formative not only for him but for surfing culture as a whole, and Muñoz was right in the thick of it.
He’s rumored to have dated Kathy “Gidget” Koehner, and he was one of Sandra Dee’s doubles in the first Gidget movie. It wasn’t just Malibu that kept him surfing, though.
He was also part of one of the first groups – comprised of absolutely wild men – who surfed at giant Waimea Bay.
The film you see here is beautifully done, and does an incredible job of conveying the constant optimism that Muñoz is famous for.
“He’s a true professional at making lemonade when life gives him lemons,” Buthman wrote, and answers every question with a story that may or may not outlast your attention span.”
He plans on surfing until he can’t surf anymore, and after a lifetime spent riding waves, he has an outlook on life that we should all subscribe to.
“There are no bad waves,” he laughs.
The film you see here is beautifully done, and does an incredible job of conveying the constant optimism that Muñoz is famous for.
“He’s a true professional at making lemonade when life gives him lemons,” Buthman wrote, and answers every question with a story that may or may not outlast your attention span.”
He plans on surfing until he can’t surf anymore, and after a lifetime spent riding waves, he has an outlook on life that we should all subscribe to.
“There are no bad waves,” he laughs.
“Only a poor choice of equipment and a lousy attitude… I think you have to keep chasing perfection. If you keep chasing perfection, you know you’ll never find it or catch it, but it keeps you in the game. You gotta just… be surfing.”
Saturday, May 10, 2025
Ocean with David Attenborough review – a passionate case against the ruination of the sea
Ocean with David Attenborough takes viewers on a breathtaking journey showing there is nowhere more vital for our survival, more full of life, wonder, or surprise, than the ocean.
The celebrated broadcaster and filmmaker reveals how his lifetime has coincided with the great age of ocean discovery.
Through spectacular sequences featuring coral reefs, kelp forests and the open ocean, Attenborough shares why a healthy ocean keeps the entire planet stable and flourishing.
Stunning, immersive cinematography showcases the wonder of life under the seas and exposes the realities and challenges facing our ocean as never-before-seen, from destructive fishing techniques to mass coral reef bleaching.
Yet the story is one of optimism, with Attenborough pointing to inspirational stories from around the world to deliver his greatest message: the ocean can recover to a glory beyond anything anyone alive has ever seen.
From The Guardian by Peter Bradshaw
Released on his 99th birthday and presented in the context of his remarkable career, Sir David’s authority is matched only by nature’s grandeur in this visually stunning film
A visual marvel like all his work, governed by his own matchless authority and striking a steady tonal balance between warning and hope, David Attenborough’s new film about the oceans is absorbing and compelling.
He makes a passionate case against the ruin caused by industrial overfishing and the sinister mega-trawlers which roam everywhere, raking the seabed with their vast metal nets, brutally and wastefully hoovering up fish populations of which the majority is often simply thrown away, depleting developing countries and fishing communities of their share.
Attenborough says that this is the new colonialism.
The film is released in cinemas in anticipation of the UN’s World Oceans Day in June, which is campaigning for 30% of the world’s oceans to be preserved from exploitation – at present, only around 3% is protected in this way.
As he arrives at his 99th birthday, Sir David presents this new documentary in the context of his own remarkable life and career, studying and thinking about the oceans as the last part of the world to be fully understood and also, perhaps, the last part to be exploited – and despoiled.
As he says, until relatively recently, the ocean was regarded as a kind of mysterious, undifferentiated Sahara, a wilderness, of interest largely for providing an apparently endless supply of food.
But he shows us an amazing vista of diversity and life, an extraordinary undulating landscape, a giant second planet of whose existence humanity has long been unaware but now seems in danger of damaging or even destroying.
Attenborough shows us that glorious places of colour and light and life can be scoured and scorched into a nuclear winter of nothingness by overfishing, but that by preserving places from this kind of industrialisation, creating “no take zones”, we can give the ocean and its lifeforms time to recover.
This is often possible within quite a short space of time and the revived species can “spill over” into other zones; effectively, it is this preservation model that is being suggested.
But Attenborough is always emphasising that this is not a cause for complacency, for saying that overfishing doesn’t matter because the overfished areas can always be nursed back to life: because we never know how close we have come to the point of no return.
Attenborough matches the natural world’s grandeur with his own intellectual and moral seriousness.
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