GeoGarage blog

Tuesday, September 21, 2021

How nuclear subs could transform Australia, its alliance and Asia

HMS Talent, one of the Royal Navy’s nuclear-powered submarines: the UK and US have agreed to support Australia acquiring nuclear-powered submarines (Ministry of Defence)

From LowyInstitute by Sam Roggeveen

First thoughts on the consequences of a truly momentous decision.

Australia is about to join an exclusive group of nations operating one of the most lethal military platforms ever conceived – nuclear-powered submarines.

My initial thoughts on this extraordinary announcement are below.

These are subject to revision as I think through the implications of what is a truly historic announcement:

Only six nations currently operate nuclear-power submarines (SSNs), and all six have civilian nuclear power industries and nuclear weapons programs.

Australia joining this club marks a dramatic break with this historic norm (although for some years Brazil has had a research program aimed at eventually fielding an indigenous SSN).

It is impossible to read this as anything other than a response to China’s rise, and a significant escalation of American commitment to that challenge.

The United States has only ever shared this technology with the United Kingdom, so the fact that Australia is now joining this club indicates that the United States is prepared to take significant new steps and break with old norms to meet the China challenge.

I have been sceptical of the idea that the United States really wanted to enter a Cold War with China, but this announcement is significant evidence that it is indeed prepared to take such a momentous step.

It is wise to assume that the scale of this agreement, and the close strategic and operational links it implies, will create expectations from Washington.

Australia cannot have this capability while assuming that it does not come with heightened expectations that Australia will take America’s side in any dispute with China.

The U.S. is forming an Indo-Pacific security alliance with Britain and Australia that will allow for greater sharing of defense resources - including nuclear-powered submarines for Australia.

The move could worsen the U.S. rift with China.

courtesy of HI Sutton

It is extraordinary that this momentous decision could be made without parliamentary or public scrutiny.

That is the real long-term significance of the deal – even more than the agreement to base Marines in Darwin, this deal signals that Australia is betting on the United States as a long-term partner in its region as China’s rise continues.

Australia is gambling that, over the decades-long lifespan of these submarines, the United States will remain committed to its defence and to maintaining a regional presence in the face of the largest economic and strategic challenge in American history.

The single best piece of news to come out of this announcement is that Australia will cancel the Attack-class submarine program with France’s Naval Group.

This is unquestionably a good thing.

The project was going to deliver submarines too late and at eye-watering cost.

The announcement of a trilateral “AUKUS” partnership this morning by Prime Ministers Scott Morrison and Boris Johnson and President Joe Biden was notable for different points of emphasis.

Morrison and Biden explicitly framed this agreement geographically (security in the Indo-Pacific).

Johnson did not, instead emphasising the defence-industrial benefits for Britain and historic links with Australia.

The United Kingdom has made some efforts in recent years to develop its naval presence in Asia, but that is not how Johnson chose to view this new agreement.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson joins US President Joe Biden and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison at the launch of the AUKUS Partnership (Andrew Parsons/No 10 Downing Street/Flickr)

It is extraordinary that this momentous decision could be made without parliamentary or public scrutiny.
The 18-month consultation process that Morrison has announced will focus on how the submarine agreement will be implemented, and not whether it is a good idea.
Many will now begin to consider the implications of this agreement for the wider region, even beyond how China will respond.
South Korea is already edging towards the development of an indigenous nuclear-powered submarine, and it would now be no shock to see Japan take the same course.
There are still many unknowns, including relating to reports that emerged late yesterday that as an interim measure, Australia would host US nuclear submarines in Western Australia until acquiring its own.

The idea that Australia would outsource its submarine capability to the US Navy for an interim period is extraordinary in itself.

Does Australia actually need nuclear-powered submarines?

It depends on what you want to achieve.

They would certainly be important assets in any allied effort to deter war with China or to defeat China if deterrence failed.
SSNs have the range and endurance needed for long-range operations together with the United States.
But because they are expensive, Australia can’t have very many, and given the sea approaches to Australia are vast and with many choke points that need to be patrolled, they are less useful for the defence of the continent.
So, if Australia believes it needs the capability to defend the Australian continent alone, then this is the wrong decision.
As already mentioned, this decision is a long-term bet on the endurance of the alliance, and on the likelihood that the US has the resolve to stay in Asia.
It is also worth saying that these submarines will be largely dependent on US and UK nuclear know how.
All the talk of recent years about Australia acquiring “sovereign” capabilities that can operate independently has gone out the window.
We had better hope that our defence and foreign policy priorities remain closely aligned with these two partners.

Links :

Monday, September 20, 2021

Hole in the ozone layer that develops annually is 'rather larger than usual' this year - and is currently bigger than Antarctica, scientists say

The 2021 ozone hole evolution appears to be similar to last year’s size, currently around 23 million sq km – reaching an extent larger than Antarctica.

According to CAMS, the 2021 ozone hole has considerably grown in the last two weeks and is now larger than 75% of ozone holes at that stage in the season since 1979.

This map is centered on the Antarctic region.

Areas coloured yellow, orange and red depict high ozone values, whereas green and blue areas show low values.

Credit: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service/ECMWF

From CNN by Jevan Ravindran

The hole in the ozone that forms every year over the South Pole is now larger than Antarctica, scientists from the European Union's Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service said Thursday.

The ozone depletes and forms a hole over the Antarctic in the Southern Hemisphere's spring, which is from August to October.
It typically reaches its largest size between mid-September and mid-October, according to Copernicus.

After growing "considerably" in the past week, the hole is now larger than 75% of previous years' ozone holes at the same stage of the season since 1979 and is now bigger that the continent it looms over.

"This year, the ozone hole developed as expected at the start of the season," Vincent-Henri Peuch, Copernicus director, said in a statement.

The 2021 ozone hole evolution appears to be similar to last year’s size, currently around 23 million sq km – reaching an extent larger than Antarctica.

Credit: Contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data (2021), processed by DLR

"Now our forecasts show that this year´s hole has evolved into a rather larger than usual one."
Last year's hole also began unexceptionally in September, but then turned into "one of the longest-lasting ozone holes in our data record," according to Copernicus.
The ozone layer, which sits between 9 and 22 miles above the Earth, protects the planet from ultraviolet radiation.

The hole in the Southern Hemisphere is typically caused by chemicals, such as chlorine and bromine migrating into the stratosphere, creating catalytic reactions during Antarctic winter.
The ozone hole is related to the Antarctic polar vortex, a band of swirling cold air that moves around the Earth.

The Antarctic ozone hole, which forms every year over the South Pole between August and October, is now larger than Antarctica, according to scientists from the European Union's Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service. https://t.co/rzZQZucdSS pic.twitter.com/zlDAdofbTL
— CNN Weather Center (@CNNweather) September 17, 2021

When temperatures high up in the stratosphere start to rise in the late spring, ozone depletion slows, the polar vortex weakens and finally breaks down, and by December, ozone levels usually return to normal.
This ends the isolation of air created by the polar vortex that forms during Antarctic winter, enabling chemicals such as chlorine and bromine to deplete the ozone layer, according to Copernicus and NASA.
Ozone levels are usually restored to normal levels by December.

Copernicus monitors the ozone layer using computer modeling and satellite observations, and although the ozone layer is showing signs of recovery, Copernicus says it would not completely recover until the 2060s or 2070s.

This is because it will take time to see the effects of the phasing out of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), which deplete the ozone layer.
The chemicals were first regulated by the Montreal Protocol -- first signed in 1987.
They are expected to be phased out by 2030, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.
A study published in the Nature journal last month said the world would be on course for an additional 2.5 degree Celsius rise in global temperatures and a collapse of the ozone layer if CFCs had not been banned by the protocol.

Links :

CNN : A 1980s ban on CFCs to heal the ozone layer is also shaving degrees off global warming, study says
DailyMail : Ozone layer Hole develops annually larger usual year scientists say
The Guardian : ‘Larger than usual’: this year’s ozone layer hole bigger than Antarctica
Copernicus : CAMS Monitors Evolution of Ozone Hole
Scitecdaily : What’s Going On With Earth’s Ozone Hole?

Sunday, September 19, 2021

Veracruz old maps

A 1580 map of Tlacotalpa, a small river village in the southeast of the state of Veracruz, Mexico.

Drawn by Sevillian navigator, explorer, cosmographer and cartographer, Francisco Gali, it is one of the first examples of local nautical cartography in Hispanic America.