'Mega-colonies' of 1.5 million penguins discovered in Antarctica

Huge 'mega-colonies' of penguins have been discovered near the Antarctic peninsula, hosting more than 1.5m birds.

Researchers say it shows the area is a vital refuge from climate change and human activities and should be protected by a vast new marine wildlife reserve currently under consideration.

The Adélie penguins were discovered on the Danger Islands in the Weddell Sea, on the east side of the Antarctic peninsula

From The Guardian by Damian Carrington

The discovery shows the remote area is a vital refuge for wildlife from climate change and overfishing and should be protected by a new reserve, say scientists

Huge “mega-colonies” of penguins have been discovered near the Antarctic peninsula, hosting more than 1.5 million birds.
Researchers say it shows the area is a vital refuge from climate change and human activities and should be protected by a vast new marine wildlife reserve currently under consideration.

Danger islands near the Antarctic peninsula with the GeoGarage platform (UKHO map)

Danger islands detailed from NGA chart in the GeoGarage platform

The huge numbers of Adélie penguins were found on the Danger Islands in the Weddell Sea, on the east side of the Antarctic Peninsula.
It is a difficult place to reach and has seldom been visited.
But scientists, prompted by satellite images, mounted an expedition and used on-the-ground counts and aerial photography from drones to reveal 751,527 pairs of penguins.

Aerial footage revealed an enormous breeding colony of Adélie penguins in the Danger Islands. Photograph: Thomas Sayre-McCord/WHOI/MIT

The researchers then examined satellite images going back to 1959 and believe the colony has been stable over that time.
In contrast, Adélie colonies to the west of the Antarctic Peninsula, where the impact of climate change and human activity are much greater, are in decline.

“This was an incredible experience, finding and counting so many penguins,” said Tom Hart, at the University of Oxford and part of the international research team.
Its report, Survey of Adélie Penguin Mega-colonies Reveals the Danger Islands as a Seabird Hotspot, is published in the journal Scientific Reports.

Michael Polito, at Louisiana State University and also part of the team, said: “I was amazed by the sheer number of Adélie penguins I saw.
The water around the island boiled with penguins.”

The researchers uses drone footage to calculate the number of penguins.

Photograph: Rachael Herman/Stony Brook University/Louisiana State University

Hart said: “The size of these colonies makes them regionally important and makes the case for expanding the proposed Weddell Sea Marine Protected Area (MPA) to include the Danger Islands. More than that, I think it highlights the need for better protection of the west Antarctic Peninsula, where we are seeing declines.”

Rod Downie, at WWF, said: “This exciting discovery shows us just how much more there still is to learn about this amazing and iconic species of the ice. But it also reinforces the urgency to protect Antarctic waters from the dual threats of overfishing and climate change.”

 UAV orthomosaic image of Brash Island (above),

with examples of zoomed-in penguin rookeries (below)

The proposed MPA is huge – 1.8m sq km or five times the size of Germany.
It would ban all fishing in a vast area of the Weddell Sea and around the Antarctic Peninsula, safeguarding killer whales, leopard seals and blue whales, as well as penguins that rely on the krill targeted by fishing ships.
The MPA already has the support of several countries, including the UK, and will go before a conference of the Antarctic nations in October.

Panoramic Quadcopter aerial imagery of an Adélie penguin breeding colony on Heroina Island, Danger Islands, Antarctica

Credit: Thomas Sayre McChord, Hanumant Singh, Northeastern University, © Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

The discovery of the mega-colonies is a major development for polar scientists – and welcome good news.
In October, they reported that just two chicks had survived from a colony of 40,000 at Petrel Island, a few thousand kilometres west of the Antarctic peninsula.

Other penguins are also facing an uncertain future.
On Monday, researchers warned that king penguins could almost disappear from Antarctica by the end of the century unless climate change is curbed.

Links :

• BBC : Penguin super-colony spotted from space / As Oceans Warm, King Penguins’ Food Moves Farther Away. That’s a Problem
• The Independent : Previously unknown 'supercolony' of 1.5 million penguins discovered in Antarctica's remote Danger Islands
• News.au : Satellite discovers more than a million rare penguins in remote Antarctica
• NewsDeeply : Drones Help Find Massive Penguin Colonies Hiding in Plain Sight
• Nature : Multi-modal survey of Adélie penguin mega-colonies reveals the Danger Islands as a seabird hotspot 
• Smithsonian : As Oceans Warm, King Penguins’ Food Moves Farther Away. That’s a Problem
• Phy : King penguins may be on the move very soon

It’s not too late to save coral reefs

From Nature by Mark Spalding

This year-2018-has been declared the "International Year of the Reef" by the International Coral Reef Initiative, but given recent headlines, you might be forgiven for asking if this was in fact the last year for coral reefs.
Coral reefs are "under siege" (USA Today), "ravaged by war" (New York Times) and "headed for [the] knockout punch" (BBC News). Even the normally conservative National Geographic has stated that the "window to save the world's coral reefs [is] closing rapidly".

A diversity of corals, echinoderms, sponges and other life compete for space and plankton on the reefs surrounding Bangka Island, North Sulawesi, Indonesia.

Photo © Ethan Daniels

This problem hasn't arisen overnight, of course.
In 1998 we released the first edition of Reefs at Risk, mapping the vast array of threats facing these extraordinary habitats from coastal development to pollution to overfishing.
It highlighted the global scale of the challenges facing reefs and was met with widespread shock.
That same year was also the first global coral bleaching event, brought on by the brutally hot combination of El Nino and climate change.
And while climate change and coral bleaching dominate today's headlines, it is the combination of these threats with the more local impacts of pollution and over-exploitation that also prevents reefs from recovering—death by a thousand cuts.

The consequences and implications of coral die-offs are numerous—for marine ecosystems, yes, but also for people around the world.
Some 200 million people live close to reefs.
More than a quarter of all marine species spend at least some part of their life cycle in coral reefs, including species that both commercial and subsistence fishermen depend on.
Reefs also protect coastal communities from erosion, flooding and storms—a healthy coral reef can reduce wave force by 97 percent—and generate billions of dollars in value for the tourism, pharmaceutical and other industries.

But it's too early to start writing an obituary for coral reefs.
As dire as their fate may seem now, science is changing what we know about coral reefs and how we might save them; about their roles within the broader ocean environment; and about their tremendous benefits to human communities and their economies.
In fact, the complexity and interdependence of these systems, and our reliance on them, may be the key to reefs' preservation.

This is key to our work at The Nature Conservancy—we are finding the support we need from our partners and allies in the communities, businesses and institutions whose fates are intertwined with those of coral reefs.
And it is in these places, at the intersections of conservation and business, finance and science, high politics and local communities, that we will find solutions.

Coral reefs worldwide are in trouble.

But a team of ocean scientists have found what they think could be a natural, ecological way to save the reefs -- and it already exists in nature.

It's a type of coral called a corallith.

see Nature : The potential for coral reef establishment through free-living stabilization

Our strategy centers on empowering and collaborating with those on the frontlines of reef conservation.
Our Reef Resilience Network, for example, connects marine resource managers around the world and provides information and training opportunities to maximize conservation and restoration efforts.
Similarly, our work with fishermen in the Caribbean, the Solomon Islands and other regions is also demonstrating that a more sustainable approach to fishing sustains reef ecosystems and in turn leads to better fishing yields in the long term.
Well-managed, healthy reefs are proving more resilient to the wider effects of climate change.

But we're also finding more unlikely allies in the business community.
The tourism industry offers a good example. Globally, the tourism industry derives $36 billion in annual revenue from coral reefs; the Conservancy's Mapping Ocean Wealth initiative is helping to identify where and how reefs generate tourism's value and offering more incentives for conservation.
And one of the most significant new partners we've developed is the insurance industry, including Swiss Re, one of the largest reinsurers in the world.
Recognizing the importance of reefs for protecting coastal development, we are exploring innovative disaster risk financing mechanisms that will support long-term protection and restoration of reefs and other critical natural defenses.

This work is no panacea, of course.
Coral bleaching events, driven by warming oceans, are a serious and growing threat, and ocean acidification will complicate matters still further.
But science has already demonstrated that reefs have the ability to rebound from extreme damage.
Even reefs that were highly degraded by multiple disturbances have shown signs of recovery, so if we can reduce the damage from local sources, reefs will have a better shot at recovering from bleaching events.

What are coral reefs?

Coral can be found in tropical ocean waters around the world.

But how much do you know about reefs and the tiny animals—polyps—that build them?

Learn all about coral and why warming waters threaten the future of the reef ecosystem.

The newer and still developing piece of the puzzle, though, comes from our recognition that an awful lot of people have an awful lot to lose from coral reef extinction.
We are only just beginning to realize that we can engage these people and sectors—even if they might not always be the most obvious partners—as part of the solution.
The challenge is to provide them with the information and the tools they need to make better decisions about actions that will impact reefs.
Can we, in fact, empower them to become advocates for reefs?
And if we do, can we save coral reefs?

My answer to both questions is an unequivocal "yes."
I look forward to sharing more of the Conservancy's progress in the coming months as we move to make this International Year of the Reef a year of hope and resurgence.

Links :

• National Geographic :  Under a full moon, corals release millions of tiny eggs. Whether or not those eggs fertilize is a leap of faith
• Ted : Why I still have hope for coral reefs
• Standford : Before reefs become deserts: Keeping coral healthy in Hawaii
• GeoGarage blog : 3D photogrammetry maps of coral reefs / Coral reef bleaching 'the new normal' and a fatal ... / Great Barrier Reef at 'terminal stage': scientists ... / Mapping the Great Barrier Reef with cameras ... / The quest to save coral reefs

Volvo Ocean Race: The man who made history with drones

Dongfeng sailing along the 'Atoll de la Surprise' north of New Caledonia
courtesy of Martin Keruzoré, mediaman onboard of Dongfeng

 

 Atoll de la Surprise with the GeoGarage platform (SHOM nautical chart)

From CNN

It was a first in sailing, shedding new light on an event taking place hundreds of kilometers from the shoreline.

The crashing waves and turbulent seas of the Volvo Ocean Race have never been captured in more dramatic style than when Sam Greenfield first brought drone footage to the event often dubbed the world's toughest race.
"It was just a shot that hadn't been done before and it was, you know, an opportunity to get a perspective off the boat that no one had ever seen," Greenfield tells CNN Mainsail.
"I just went for it on the most absolutely dead calm day in the middle of the ocean and slowly worked up confidence ... it's really awesome to see that it's just something that everyone's embracing."

Yann Riou (team Brunel) shows how you do a drone flight on moving ship on the middle of the ocean.

This year's Volvo Ocean Race is 46,000 nautical miles, traversing four oceans, six continents and 12 host cities.
The event's nine-month long progress can be tracked online, where competitors are currently on their sixth leg between Hong Kong and Auckland.

Onboard reporter Sam Greenfield is the first person to record the iconic Volvo Ocean Race from an aerial perspective.

Travelling together with the ship’s crew, he used a DJI Phantom to capture the race from his behind-the-scenes point of view.

These unique images show the true scale of the Volvo Ocean Race.

Mastering the art

Growing up in the Noank, Connecticut, a small village with a rich history on fishing, sailing and ship-building, Greenfield hails from seafaring stock.

He made history in the 2014-15 edition when he successfully flew a drone above the Dongfeng Race Team yacht while serving as an on-board reporter (OBR).
He describes his role as "the direct link between the race yacht crew and the rest of the world," wrestling with the elements to capture the perfect angle of the race for each of the seven teams competing.
"It can be really easy or it can be really challenging depending on the sea state and the wind conditions," says Greenfield.
"If it's over 25 knots (46km/h) you get sea spray which can take the drone down. If you have a lot of waves and you're going up-wind retrieving it is incredibly difficult.
"But if you're running down-wind and the boat's going fast and you have long waves it's actually kind of pleasant after a bit of practice."

courtesy of Ugo Fonollá, mediaman onboard of Mapfre

'More risks' lie ahead

On the surface, the Volvo Ocean Race may not seem particularly spectator-friendly; but take a tour of the race's website, and you'll find videos, photos, live satellite trackers, blogs and leaderboards -- much of which has been captured within the past hour.

Mirpuri Foundation "Turn the Tide on Plastic" boat drone footage during Volvo Ocean Race Leg 2 from Lisbon to Cape Town.

courtesy of James Blake, mediaman onboard of "Turn the Tide on Plastic"

Greenfield's innovation may have been a leap into the future of sailing, but he predicts that viewers will be brought even closer to the sport in the coming years.
"I think people really want to see live stream content from really remote parts of the world," he says.
"Basically launch a drone, have it direct back into somebody's living room with commentary from the boat and I think that's probably available now if not very soon.
"And beyond that it's just going to be bigger conditions, bigger waves and more risks ... in terms of what you're seeing and what it's actually like out there."

Next-generation weather satellite launches to track extreme storms

This graphic shows coverage of the Western Hemisphere

by GOES-16 (also called GOES-East) and GOES-17 (also called GOES-West)

see animation showing the coverage

From Space by Sarah Lewis

A powerful new weather satellite launched today (March 1) from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida, heading toward a perch above the eastern Pacific Ocean to monitor extreme weather as it develops.

NOAA's GOES-S satellite launched March 1 on ULA's Atlas V rocket from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida.

The advanced weather satellite will give researchers and meteorologists unparalleled views of the U.S. West

Credit: NASA TV

see GOES in photos

The satellite, called GOES-S (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-S), lifted off on ULA's Atlas V rocket at 5:02 p.m. EST (2202 GMT).

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will operate GOES-S in partnership with NASA.
The Lockheed Martin-built satellite will join GOES-East, currently in orbit, to provide a broad, high-definition view of weather on Earth.
It is the second in a series of four advanced weather satellites that will reside in geostationary orbit — hanging in place over one spot on Earth as they orbit and the world turns.

"GOES-S will provide more accurate data with higher temporal resolution to track storm systems, lightning, wildfires, the coastal fog [and] volcanic ash plumes that impact the western U.S., Alaska, Hawaii and the coastal to eastern Pacific ocean," Louis Uccellini, director of the National Weather Service at NOAA, said during a news conference Tuesday (Feb. 27).
"There are unique aspects of these intense Pacific storms that we'll be able to observe more accurately and use in our forecast process."
"I believe very strongly GOES-S will improve the scientific understanding for the western U.S., just like GOES-East has for the eastern U.S., and is another step forward in our overall effort to build a weather-ready nation," Uccellini added.

GOES-16 imagery of Hurricane Harvey making landfall in Texas on
August 25, 2017. (NOAA)
Like GOES-16, which provided groundbreaking new data and imagery during the severe 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, GOES-S will bring this same new technology to the Pacific Ocean.

This means forecasters will have new high-resolution imagery of atmospheric rivers, as well as Pacific hurricanes that track toward Hawaii or Mexico during the summer and autumn.

The current GOES-East satellite launched in 2016, and it has provided views of developing weather in unprecedented detail.
NOAA used GOES-East to track hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Maria and more, as well as January's bomb cyclone and other extreme weather events, including wildfires developing in northern Texas.
The new GOES-S will be at a vantage point to help analyze California's wildfires in more detail, as well.
The satellite will scan the skies five times faster than the GOES-West satellite it will replace, will have four times the spatial resolution and use three times as many spectral bands.
Besides fire, lightning and tropical storms, the satellite can also track the influx of charged particles and radiation from the sun called space weather.

The satellite will be able to scan each spot below it every 5 minutes, or every 1 minute to 30 seconds on special focus areas — in the latter case, for developing weather events.
Together, GOES-S (which will be renamed GOES-West) and GOES-East will be able to focus on four locations to refresh views every minute, or two locations to refresh views every 30 seconds.

"Those of us in the severe weather community are really excited about the data we're seeing from GOES-16 [GOES-East]," Kristin Calhoun, a research scientist with NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory, said during the conference.
"And we're also eagerly anticipating the increased coverage from GOES-S across the United States."

"For the first time, space-based observations from geostationary satellites and ground-based observations such as Doppler weather radars are in cadence with each other, providing the ability to create a top-to-bottom, linked profile of a severe thunderstorm through direct observation," Calhoun added.
"This has a direct impact on severe thunderstorm research, diagnosis and hazardous weather forecasting."

 You don’t have to live on the West Coast to know that coastal fog is a hallmark weather event in places like San Francisco and parts of the Pacific Northwest.

Not only will GOES-S provide high-resolution, real-time imagery of fog conditions, but the satellite’s rapid scanning capabilities will also help forecasters predict when fog will clear.

A visceral view

At the news conference and at another one held earlier on Feb. 27, NOAA and NASA researchers shared stories of how GOES-East's remarkably clear views have aided in search-and-rescue operations as well as in forecasting.
During Hurricane Harvey, for instance, data from the satellite allowed first responders to know when it was safe to go out as the storm's eye passed overhead, rescuing more than 200 people — and when to take shelter just before the back of the eyewall swept back over.
During wildfire season in California, people using GOES data were able to warn local authorities about fires before they'd even been spotted on the ground.

And just viewing weather events in so much detail makes it easier to learn how they work.

"The impact of the visualization, the actual videos, the movies coming out is really visceral," Steve Volz, NOAA's director for satellite and information services, said in the earlier conference.
"It allows the researchers to see the dynamics in a way that just looking at numbers just doesn't reveal — the visual impact is remarkable."

Special mention: A major upgrade for AlaskaCurrent geostationary satellite coverage of Alaska, such as this recent GOES-15 visible imagery, will be replaced by high-resolution imagery in 16 different
channels.
GOES-S will boost weather prediction all across the western U.S., but the new satellite will be especially valuable to Alaska.

That’s because NOAA’s current geostationary satellites lack sufficient resolution in regions near the Arctic.

GOES-S, however, will provide a significantly clearer view of the Last Frontier - all the way to Alaska’s North Slope, and allow for applications such as tracking sea ice.

The satellite was deployed a little after 8:30 p.m. EST today (1:30 a.m. GMT on March 2).
It will now spend about three weeks making its way into geostationary orbit.
After about six months at that latitude preparing its instruments and running checks, it will move to its final vantage point over the eastern Pacific Ocean, taking on the official name GOES-West.

GOES-S will complement other geostationary satellites, like GOES-East, as well as polar-orbiting satellites like JPSS-1, which launched last November.
Several other nations share weather satellite data with each other and NOAA to provide more complete coverage.

A stunning view of Earth taken by the GOES-16 satellite.
GOES East image viewer

Photo: NOAA

"Every forecast, whether it's one day, two days, three days, out to seven days in advance, depends on sophisticated numerical models, the world's fastest computers and a global observing system," Uccellini said.
"And NOAA's satellite data provides the backbone for the global observing system, and is the critical element for weather forecasting in the extended ranges.
The geostationary satellite, the GOES series, is a crucial component of today's global observing system."

The four-satellite GOES-R program has a total budget of $10.8 billion through its entire life cycle.
Development began in 2005, and the program will extend through 2036.
The next satellite, GOES-T, is scheduled for launch in 2020.

Links :

• Space : Hurricane Watch: How Satellites Track Huge Storms from Space
• NOAA : Five Reasons GOES-S will be a Game-Changer for Weather Forecasts in the Western U.S.
• NASA : NASA, ULA Launch Advanced NOAA Weather Satellite
• The Weather Channel : Weather Satellite Is First in NASA's Upcoming Series of Launches
• The Verge : Watch an Atlas V rocket launch a next-generation weather satellite to space
• GeoGarage blog :Comparing forecast models for Irma / How forecast models can lead to bad forecasts / NOAA's premier forecast model goes 4-D / With iPhones and computer models, do we still need weather / Revolutionary weather satellite blasts off / First weather satellite launched 50 years ago

Arctic warming: scientists alarmed by 'crazy' temperature rises

Winter temperatures are soaring in the Arctic for the fourth winter in a row. 

The heat, accompanied by moist air, is entering the Arctic not only through the sector of the North Atlantic Ocean that lies between Greenland and Europe, as it has done in previous years, but is also coming from the North Pacific through the Bering Strait. 

“We have seen winter warming events before, but they’re becoming more frequent and more intense,” said Alek Petty, a sea ice researcher at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.

Scientists are waiting to see how much this heat wave will impact the wintertime sea ice maximum extent, which has been shrinking in the past decades and has hit record lows each of the past three years.

The sea ice levels are already at record lows or near-record lows in several areas of the Arctic.

Another exceptional event this winter is the opening up of the sea ice cover north of Greenland, releasing heat from the ocean to the atmosphere and making the sea ice more vulnerable to further melting.

“This is a region where we have the thickest multi-year sea ice and expect it to not be mobile, to be resilient,” Petty said.

“But now this ice is moving pretty quickly, pushed by strong southerly winds and probably affected by the warm temperatures, too.”

From The Guardian by Jonathan Watts

An alarming heatwave in the sunless winter Arctic is causing blizzards in Europe and forcing scientists to reconsider even their most pessimistic forecasts of climate change.

Although it could yet prove to be a freak event, the primary concern is that global warming is eroding the polar vortex, the powerful winds that once insulated the frozen north.

 Daily 2 m surface air temperature for the Arctic averaged above 80°N.

Individual years from 1958-2017 are shown by the sequential blue/purple to yellow lines.

2018 is indicated by the red line.

ERA40 has been applied for the 1958-2002 climatology (white line), while the operational ECMWF is used for the current year.

This figure is modified from the Danish Meteorological Institute

courtesy of Zachary Labe

The north pole gets no sunlight until March, but an influx of warm air has pushed temperatures in Siberia up by as much as 35C above historical averages this month.
Greenland has already experienced 61 hours above freezing in 2018 - more than three times as many hours as in any previous year.

Seasoned observers have described what is happening as “crazy,” “weird,” and “simply shocking”.
“This is an anomaly among anomalies.
It is far enough outside the historical range that it is worrying – it is a suggestion that there are further surprises in store as we continue to poke the angry beast that is our climate,” said Michael Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University.
“The Arctic has always been regarded as a bellwether because of the vicious circle that amplify human-caused warming in that particular region.
And it is sending out a clear warning.”

Although most of the media headlines in recent days have focused on Europe’s unusually cold weather in a jolly tone, the concern is that this is not so much a reassuring return to winters as normal, but rather a displacement of what ought to be happening farther north.

Annual average 2-m temperature anomalies in the Arctic (67°N+) for various reanalysis data sets.

Anomalies are calculated from a 1981-2010 baseline.
courtesy of Zachary Labe

At the world’s most northerly land weather station - Cape Morris Jesup at the northern tip of Greenland – recent temperatures have been, at times, warmer than London and Zurich, which are thousands of miles to the south.
Although the recent peak of 6.1C on Sunday was not quite a record, but on the previous two occasions (2011 and 2017) the highs lasted just a few hours before returning closer to the historical average.
Last week there were 10 days above freezing for at least part of the day at this weather station, just 440 miles from the north pole.

“Spikes in temperature are part of the normal weather patterns – what has been unusual about this event is that it has persisted for so long and that it has been so warm,” said Ruth Mottram of the Danish Meteorological Institute.
“Going back to the late 1950s at least we have never seen such high temperatures in the high Arctic.”

 NASA satellite imagery shows a strong storm near Greenland on Feb. 23
that drew a major pulse of warm air into the Arctic.

The cause and significance of this sharp uptick are now under scrutiny.
Temperatures often fluctuate in the Arctic due to the strength or weakness of the polar vortex, the circle of winds – including the jetstream – that help to deflect warmer air masses and keep the region cool.
As this natural force field fluctuates, there have been many previous temperature spikes, which make historical charts of Arctic winter weather resemble an electrocardiogram.

But the heat peaks are becoming more frequent and lasting longer – never more so than this year.
“In 50 years of Arctic reconstructions, the current warming event is both the most intense and one of the longest-lived warming events ever observed during winter,” said Robert Rohde, lead scientist of Berkeley Earth, a non-profit organisation dedicated to climate science.

The question now is whether this signals a weakening or collapse of the polar vortex, the circle of strong winds that keep the Arctic cold by deflecting other air masses.
The vortex depends on the temperature difference between the Arctic and mid-latitudes, but that gap is shrinking because the pole is warming faster than anywhere on Earth.
While average temperatures have increased by about 1C, the warming at the pole – closer to 3C – is melting the ice mass.
According to Nasa, Arctic sea ice is now declining at a rate of 13.2% per decade, leaving more open water and higher temperatures.

GFS model analysis of temperature difference from normal (in Celsius) on Sunday over the Arctic.

The temperature is above freezing at the North Pole.

(University of Maine Climate Re-analyzer)

GFS model analysis of temperatures (in Celsius) on Sunday over the Arctic.

(University of Maine Climate Re-analyzer)

Some scientists speak of a hypothesis known as “warm Arctic, cold continents” as the polar vortex becomes less stable - sucking in more warm air and expelling more cold fronts, such as those currently being experienced in the UK and northern Europe.
Rohde notes that this theory remains controversial and is not evident in all climate models, but this year’s temperature patterns have been consistent with that forecast.
Longer term, Rohde expects more variation.
“As we rapidly warm the Arctic, we can expect that future years will bring us even more examples of unprecedented weather.”

Jesper Theilgaard, a meteorologist with 40 years’ experience and founder of website Climate Dissemination, said the recent trends are outside previous warming events.
“No doubt these warming events bring trouble to the people and the nature.
Shifting rain and snow – melt and frost make the surface icy and therefore difficult for animals to find anything to eat.
Living conditions in such shifting weather types are very difficult.”

Others caution that it is premature to see this as a major shift away from forecasts.
“The current excursions of 20C or more above average experienced in the Arctic are almost certainly mostly due to natural variability,” said Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth.
“While they have been boosted by the underlying warming trend, we don’t have any strong evidence that the factors driving short-term Arctic variability will increase in a warming world.
If anything, climate models suggest the opposite is true, that high-latitude winters will be slightly less variable as the world warms.”

Although it is too soon to know whether overall projections for Arctic warming should be changed, the recent temperatures add to uncertainty and raises the possibility of knock-on effects accelerating climate change.

“This is too short-term an excursion to say whether or not it changes the overall projections for Arctic warming,” says Mann.
“But it suggests that we may be underestimating the tendency for short-term extreme warming events in the Arctic.
And those initial warming events can trigger even greater warming because of the ‘feedback loops’ associated with the melting of ice and the potential release of methane (a very strong greenhouse gas).”

Links :

• WashingtonPost : Europe is so cold now that the Arctic appears to be a warm escape / North Pole surges above freezing in the dead of winter, stunning scientists
• Business Insider : This is the scientific reason Europe is incredibly cold and snowy this week
• SMH : 'Really extreme' global weather event leaves scientists aghast
• GeoGarage blog : 'Extraordinarily hot' Arctic temperatures alarm ...