Wednesday, January 31, 2018

Don't call it a blood moon. Or Supermoon. Or Blue moon

See 1st super blue blood moon in 35 years with NASA Live

From Wired by Matt Simon

On Wesnesday, Humanity will be treated to a celestial trifecta: A supermoon (meaning it’s relatively close to Earth), but also simultaneously a blood moon (it’ll be orange or red), but also simultaneously a blue moon (the second full moon in one calendar month) will pass in the shadow of Earth, for a total lunar eclipse.
It’s going to be righteous.


But supermoon? Blue moon? Blood moon?
Yeah, let’s go ahead and pump the brakes on those terms, because the first was created by an astrologer, the second is highly subjective, and the third was only recently popularized by this-must-be-prophecy types.

First, some basics on the grand astronomical event.
A total lunar eclipse is, of course, when the moon passes through the shadow of the Earth.
But the Earth doesn’t actually cast one super-delineated shadow.
There are two components: the penumbra and umbra.

“The reason there are these two portions of the Earth's shadow, umbra and penumbra, is because the sun is not a single small point, it's got this big disk,” says Noah Petro, a research scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center.
So the penumbra is more a partial shadow, caused by a portion of the sun being blocked by the Earth.

image : NASA

You can see that light sneaking through in the penumbra.
If you glimpse the moon when it’s there, it still won’t have the reddish or orangish or brownish hue it takes on during the so-called blood moon.
“Only once it passes completely into the Earth's umbra does it turn that red color, and the reason for that is because it's very, very dim,” says Petro.
“So just having any part of the moon illuminated by sunlight during an eclipse, washes out that red color that you would eventually see when it's in totality.”

That bizarre color comes from Earth itself.
As sunlight passes through our atmosphere, it interacts with particles like dust, scattering certain colors.
Specifically, blue, which has a shorter wavelength.
Red and orange with their longer wavelengths will pass right through.

It's nearly impossible to compare the apparent size of the supermoon with a micromoon from memory, but when seen side-by-side as in this graphic, it becomes clear.
NASA/JPL-Caltech

Think about the different kinds of light you see here on Earth.
We get blue skies during the day because when sunlight hits us head on, the blue light scatters toward us.
“When we have a sunset, the sunlight is going through a thicker portion of the Earth's atmosphere, and so more of the blue light is scattered away,” says Petro.
Thus the reds and oranges of a particularly magnificent sunset.

Nicknamed "blood moon," some ancient cultures regarded a total lunar eclipse as an ominous event. Today, this celestial phenomenon generates excitement and wonder.
Unlike a solar eclipse, which may require travel to see, total lunar eclipses can often be observed from the entire nighttime-half of the Earth.
Learn what causes a lunar eclipse and how it gains its crimson coloring.

So we’re going to have ourselves a “blood” moon.
But … hold on.
“I think the term more recently, really in the last decade or so, has become popular by these religious zealots that keep proposing that it's the end of time and this lunar eclipse is going to be the last one,” says Fred Espenak, scientist emeritus, also of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center.
Indeed, take a look at the Google Trends of “blood moon” below.
“The term has been around for centuries, but in obscure texts,” Espenak adds.
“Even the Bible says something about a blood moon.
But that's open for interpretation exactly what that means.” It could have been a lunar eclipse, sure, or some kind of phenomenon that turned the moon red.
Forest fires, for instance, or a volcanic eruption that burped particulates into the atmosphere.

 
A lunar eclipse, super moon and blue moon are about to happen at once.
Here's what you need to know. 

The recent emergence of the term probably came from the book Four Blood Moons: Something Is About to Change by the pastor John Hagee, according to Bruce McClure and Deborah Byrd over at EarthSky.
Reads the book’s blurb: “Just as in biblical times, God is controlling the sun, the moon, and the stars to send our generation a signal that something big is about to happen.”

2x full moon during this month and also in March

Well, no, not really.
The big thing that’s about to happen is a magnificent total lunar eclipse.
“I think using these terms like ‘blood moon’ just obfuscates exactly what is going on, and it just perpetuates some of the superstitions surrounding this sort of stuff,” says Espenak.


What is a supermoon?
Find out what makes the moon appear extra big and bright, how it effects the tides,
and how the phenomenon got its name.

Speaking of superstitions, the next part of the celestial trifecta, the supermoon, is kinda problematic as well.
“The history of the ‘supermoon’ is not of astronomy,” says Petro.
“The first person to define a supermoon was an astrologer, and of course that gives us heartburn.” Specifically, an astrologer named Richard Nollelle, who claimed that the supermoon could impact the weather.
Which, no.

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Tuesday, January 30, 2018

Our oceans are in crisis. Here’s how technology could save them

The ocean is at a tipping point.
Can new technology come to the rescue?
Image : Reuters / Pascal Rossignol

From WEforum by Jim Leape

The ocean represents 99% of the living space on Earth.
It provides livelihoods and nourishment for more than 3 billion people, and brings $3 trillion into the global economy each year.
Yet, for all of human history, the ocean has been largely out of sight and, as a consequence, largely out of mind.
We have been able to see very little of what’s happening in the water, or even on the surface.
We have been blithely confident that the ocean is inexhaustible; able to provide all the fish we can catch, and absorb all the waste we produce.

But today the ocean is coming into view with startling rapidity.
New technologies powered by the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) are creating an information revolution that will transform our relationship with the ocean.
A rapidly proliferating array of advanced sensors - carried by fleets of satellites, ocean-going drones, fishing nets and even surfboards - is producing a flood of new data.
New analytical techniques, such as machine learning and artificial intelligence, translate this flow of data into streams of understanding, providing powerful new tools for governments and communities to manage ocean resources - all in a process transparent enough to create new accountability for resource users and businesses.

These capabilities arrive not a moment too soon.
The ocean is in crisis.
Most of the world’s fisheries have been fished to the limit or beyond.
The ocean has mitigated our impacts on the climate – absorbing 30% of our CO2 emissions and 90% of the excess heat we have produced.
But the result is that we are making the ocean warmer and more acidic.
In 2015 and 2016, record global temperatures drove global bleaching across 70% of the world’s coral reefs.
Fertiliser running off our farm fields has created more than 400 dead zones in estuaries and coastal waters.
And each year we dump 8 million tons of plastic into the ocean; it is estimated that by 2050 there will be more plastic in the ocean than fish.

By 2050, there could be more plastic than fish in our oceans
image : Ocean Conservancy

In the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), governments have agreed on an ambitious global agenda to address this crisis.
SDG 14 sets out a wide-ranging set of targets for better stewardship of ocean resources – including better management of fisheries, large and small; protection of key marine resources; and sustainable development for the Small Island Developing States (SIDS).
Success will require bold action by governments, communities, companies and civil society.
Harnessing the power of the Fourth Industrial Revolution will be essential.

New technologies can help governments better manage their fisheries.
Ocean-going drones can cruise the ocean for a year at a time, offering a cost-effective solution for assessing fish stocks and patrolling remote areas.
Real-time reporting allows dynamic management of fishing to reduce bycatch of protected species.
Facial recognition technology can even be used to automate the tracking of catch – identifying every fish as it lands on the boat.

New technology creates new possibilities for small-scale fisheries as well.
Smartphone apps can deliver information on weather, fish stocks, and market prices, and provide a platform for fishers to collect data on where they’re fishing and what they’re catching, helping them to achieve and demonstrate sustainability and access new markets.

Image: World Economic Forum/Harnessing the Fourth Industrial Revolution for Oceans

As governments redouble their efforts to protect critical marine areas, 4IR technology strengthens their ability to make those protections stick.Satellites now track the Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders that must be carried by all big boats.
Three initiatives are now combining AIS data with other datasets and machine learning to monitor fishing and other activities, enabling countries to monitor all the waters within their 200-mile limit.
In 2015, for example, the Pacific island nation of Kiribati used Global Fishing Watch to snare a fishing vessel operating illegally in the Phoenix Islands Protected Area, and collect a $2 million fine.

These capabilities provide new opportunities for sustainable development in SIDS, whose economies depend on a healthy ocean.
They allow these countries to monitor and regulate their own fishing fleets, as well as the foreign fleets who license the right to fish their waters or who fish as pirates.
More broadly, they allow them to monitor ocean conditions to help sustain the health of their ocean ecosystems.

The history of technology in the ocean gives cause for caution.
Too often, technological advances – more powerful fishing gear, ever-deeper oil drilling, industrial agriculture – have accelerated depletion and pollution.
As innovation enables even more intensive exploitation, the weaknesses of current governance are thrown into sharp relief.
The 4IR thus demands strong action both from the governments who own the resources and from the governments whose companies would exploit them.

Success will require a commitment to flexibility – to open up entrenched management regimes to take advantage of the tools now becoming available – for dynamic management of resources, more effective law enforcement, and better understanding and control of risks.
It will require a willingness to allow managers and communities to experiment with new capabilities in order to find better ways of managing their resources.

Most importantly, harnessing the power of the 4IR will require an openness to collaboration between a wide range of actors – allowing fishers and other resource users, NGOs, companies, communities and consumers to find creative ways to use new technology to create new solutions.

With flexibility, and all hands on deck, the 4IR can be a powerful resource in achieving SDG 14, and sustaining the ocean resources that are vital for our future.

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Monday, January 29, 2018

China wants to build a “Polar Silk Road” in the Arctic

AP Photo/Xinhua/Yuan Man

 From Quartz by Echo Huang

In 2013, Chinese president Xi Jinping proposed the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), an ambitious infrastructure-building project covering much of Eurasia, various seas, and parts of Africa.
At the time, few considered how the Arctic might fit into Beijing’s plans. Now, that issue has come more into focus.


Today a Chinese government agency released “China’s Arctic Policy,” a white paper (link in Chinese) outlining how the BRI applies to the Arctic.

According to the paper, China will encourage its developers to build infrastructure along Arctic routes, and urge its shipping companies to conduct trial voyages through the sea.
Shipping routes will expand in number, and along them China will facilitate economic and social progress.
The paper emphasizes that China has “shared interests” with Arctic nations.


The friendly language echoes the kind used in China’s other BRI efforts.
In reality, Chinese companies benefit the most from the projects: Of all the contractors participating in Chinese-funded BRI projects, 89% are Chinese companies, 7.6% are local, and 3.4% are foreign, according to a recent report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank based in Washington, DC.

Just as with BRI projects elsewhere, ones in the Arctic will primarily be about benefiting Chinese companies and expanding Beijing’s economic and political influence.
One section of the paper focuses on how China can use the Arctic’s resources, including fuel and fisheries, on a “legal and reasonable basis,” bringing to mind Beijing’s tussles with international law in the contested South China Sea.

courtesy of Mia Bennett, Cryopolitics

Of course, China cannot avoid working with Russia, which borders much of Arctic.
Last July, Xi urged cooperation with the northern neighbor to create a “Silk Road on ice” along Russia’s Arctic coast.

In 2016, China’s state-owned Silk Road Fund (part of the BRI) finalized a deal to buy a 9.9% stake in a liquefied natural gas plant in the Russian Arctic for $1.2 billion.
The plant, located on the Yamal Peninsula, is majority-owned by Russia’s LNG producer Novatek.
China will be the main customer for the gas produced, and state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation owns a 20% stake in the plant as well.

The white paper is careful to emphasize feel-good factors.
It says that China will boost polar tourism, which will help local economies and encourage the preservation of traditional cultures.
Finland’s Lapland region saw the number of Chinese tourists jump over 90% in 2016 (paywall).
It is the Arctic’s indigenous people, the paper suggests, who will truly benefit from China’s interest in the region.

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Sunday, January 28, 2018

A brief history of shipping

A video illustrating how one idea completely transformed the modern-day shipping industry.
What’s next? 

From WSJ by Costas Paris, Thomas Di Fonzo, and Liliana Llamas

The container shipping industry is booming and companies are moving cargo around the world faster than ever.
But how did we get here?
This video explains the simple idea that transformed the industry and where it’s headed next.

Container shipping underpins the global economy, moving $4 trillion of goods every year, from clothes and electronics to food and heavy machinery.
But how did we get here?
It took one idea in the mid 20th-century to revolutionize the industry and ignite a spark in globalization that changed the world.

 Map of the World British trade (in 1912)

At times, it’s been a rough sailing.
The industry has faced criticism for too many ships in the water and from those who say it’s responsible for around a quarter off the world’s nitrogen oxide pollution.
This video details the history of container shipping through the centuries, how it revolutionized global trade, and where it’s headed next.
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Saturday, January 27, 2018

ECMWF 25 years of ensemble prediction fro weather

Lead Scientist Roberto Buizza, Director-General Florence Rabier and NOAA meteorologist Tom Hamill explain the rationale behind ensemble forecasting and set out what the future holds. 

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