The Northwest Passage is increasingly ice-free.
From Maritime Executive by Harry Valentine
A recent forecast of future trade suggests that by mid-21st century
container ships could carry double the capacity of the largest present
day ships.
By then, a new potentially competitive sailing route could
develop.
An artist render Samsung Heavy Industries’ 21,100 TEU container ship.
Introduction
A decade ago, the bulk of the world’s sea-going container trade was
carried aboard Panamax-size container ships of 5,000 TEU capacity.
The
combination of increased international trade and developments in
transportation logistics required the development of larger container
ships to sail between Europe and Asia, also between Asia and West Coast
America.
Major shipping routes in the colonial era
There was also a perceived need to upgrade the Panama Canal to
transit much larger container ships and also increase the transit
capacity of the Suez Canal by building a section of parallel navigation
channel, with future plans to extend that parallel section.
At present, the Suez Canal allows passage to vessel of under 1,006
square meters submerged cross section, restricting passage to container
ships of under 16.75 meters draft by 60 meters beam.
Within the next
decade, container ships built to 18 meters draft by 65 meters beam by
420 meters length and carrying over 28,000 TEUs could appear on the
trans-Pacific service between west coast American ports and Asian ports,
also between Asian ports and selected Brazilian ports such as Fortaleza
(Pecem) sailing via the southern tip of Africa.
Changing weather patterns could provide a route for such ships between Asia and Europe
.
Photograph by Mukul Joshi
Earth’s Weather History
Geologists and climatologists have discovered much about the earth’s
weather history, dating back over several thousand years.
The Arctic
region has undergone multiple repeat cycles occurring every 10,000-years
of warm periods where the region was free from ice.
While climate
change may contribute to a warming Arctic, the region has been free from
ice during several previous periods.
There is also a long-term cyclical
history of El Nino and La Nina weather patterns and the earth has
undergone several cycles of warming and cooling.Changing weather
patterns are part of the earth’s long-term climatic history.
Northern Sea Route season length
Canada’s Northwest Passage
While the sailing draft along Russian side of the Arctic sailing
route is suitable for Seaway-max size of ships, most of the Canadian
passage through McClure Strait and Barrow Strait between the Beaufort
Sea and Baffin Bay exceeds a depth of 200 meters.
Within the next
decade, container ships of 28,000 TEUs could appear, as changing weather
patterns and a warming Arctic could allow the Canadian passage to
transit container ships for perhaps a period of three months per year.
Perhaps within a quarter of a century, Canada’s northwest sailing season
could extend from early May to late October.
Container ships that sail via the Canadian Arctic would likely sail from
Asian ports such as Shanghai, Busan, Qingdao, Fuzhou and Hong Kong to
east coast American ports such as Newark, Sydney NS and Melford Terminal
NS as well as to European ports such as Rotterdam – Antwerp.
The future competitiveness of the Canadian passage will depend on the
pace at which average temperature increases at the Arctic.
Future
enlarging the Suez Canal to transit larger container ships would depend
on traffic sailing west from Asian ports such as Singapore, Vizhinjam
(India) and Colombo to Europe and North America.
Caada C3 participants watch as the Polar price exits the Bellot Strait
photo : Jackie Dives / The Goble and Mail
Potential Competition
Beyond the next decade, container ships of more than double the
capacity of neo-Panamax container ships could enter service and
potentially sail via the Arctic for a few months per year.
Such a
development could divert traffic sailing between Asia and east Coast
North America, away from the Panama Canal and to ship-to-ship container
transshipment terminals currently being developed in Eastern Canada,
from where a multitude of smaller vessels would sail to mainly American
east coast ports and ports located along the St Lawrence Seaway.
Shippers could seek to maximize container movement during the northern
navigation season.
While the northern passage is open to shipping, super ships from
western Asia ports will still sail via the Suez Canal to European and
east coast North American ports.
The future seasonal closure of the
northern passage would result in a seasonal increase in mega-ship
traffic sailing via the Suez Canal and involve ships sailing from
eastern Asia ports to European ports, Port of Newark and east coast
North American transshipment terminals.
The combination of the
development of larger future container ships and trans-Arctic navigation
via Northern Canada represents future competition for the Panama Canal.
Liverpool2 is a new deep water container terminal at the Port of Liverpool, costing up to £300m. Photo: courtesy of Peel Ports Group. Mega ships
Future Port Modifications
While reconstruction was underway for the Panama Canal to transit
larger ships, corresponding reconstruction began at many ports
internationally to berth and provide service to larger ships.
At the
present time, a small number of international ports and planned ports
that are under construction offer sufficient depth to clear the draft of
the next generation of mega-size container ships.Most ports that serve
the present generation of mega-size ships will require further dredging
with possible modification to port entrances to deflect prevailing
ocean currents so as to minimize build-up of silt following port
deepening.
There may be scope to modify a few deep-sea ports that presently
serve only bulk cargo carriers to function as stop-over ports-of-call
for future mega-ships.
Such ports would include Richard’s Bay and
Saldanha Bay in South Africa, both located on the Asia – Brazil
mega-ship route.
By mid-century if projected trends in international
trade continue, container ships of up to 35,000 TEUs could enter service
and approach 19 meters draft, 39 meters height, 69 meters beam and 450
meters length.
Some ports would require that bridges be raised in the
future for such ships to arrive at quayside.
18,000 TEU ships less efficient for ports, expert says
Conclusions
Long-term market projections suggest that by mid-century,
international trade could require container ships of up to 50,000 TEUs
capacity.
Concept ships of up to 35,000 TEUs could fit into the envelope
(draft, beam and length) of the largest oil tankers.
This will be the world’s first autonomus battery-powered containtership
Unmanned vessels can be built entirely differently from current ships...
source : NTU & Sintef, Yara Birkeland
Super-size ships
would likely appear on the Asia – Brazil service and the trans-Pacific
service between east Asia and west coast America.
Depending on the pace of Arctic warming and a future northern
navigation season, future mega-size container ships could sail via the
Canadian Arctic route on voyages between east Asia and Europe, also
between east Asia and east coast North America.
Future mega-ships
sailing to the North American east coast and Europe from Asian ports
such as Vizhinjam, Colombo and Singapore would provide future business
for the future twin channels of the Suez Canal, perhaps with a wetted
cross section increased from 1,006 square meters to 1,200 square meters
and perhaps even greater.
Future mega-size container ships could likely
sail exclusively between transshipment terminals.
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