Monday, September 11, 2017

Norway NHS, a new layer in the GeoGarage platform

A new layer in the GeoGarage platform
© Kartverket / © Norwegian Mapping Authority 
see GeoGarage news

 Norwegian waters (Exclusive Economic Zone)
EEZs extend 200 kms from shore (unless it clashes with another EEZ).
Norway has the Svalbard Archipelago and Jan Mayen in the Arctic and Bouvet Island in the Arctic.
All their claims on them are due to their remote nature meaning that all it took was a few decades of Norwegian whalers spending time on those islands for much of the world too think: 'they can have those remote islands'.
As this map shows, that ownership does come with its perks. 

Sunday, September 10, 2017

New Zealand Linz update in the GeoGarage platform

10 nautical raster charts updated
see GeoGarage news

Water II

Water II from Morgan Maassen
An ode to the sea, which i revere most… Morgan Maassen
Water II is another fine example of his capacity to find a unique perspective of life at sea. 
Filmed in Hawaii, Tahiti, Maldives, Barbados, Indonesia, Mexico and California.

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Saturday, September 9, 2017

Comparing forecast models for Irma

courtesy of Google Crisis

From WeatherNation by Meteorologist Jeremy LaGoo

There’s a lot of talk of the uncertainty of exact track of Hurricane Irma as it nears a potential U.S.
landfall.
While we do our best as meteorologists to forecast an exact path of a given storm, there are countless factors that go into determining a given path.

NASA image of Irma's Towering Clouds
The MISR instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite is comprised of nine cameras that view Earth at different angles. By combining two of MISR’s images of Hurricane Irma, you can get a 3-D look at the storm. You’ll need red-blue glasses to see the full effect.

The best forecasters of a potential path are at the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasting tropical systems is what these men and women do, so it only makes sense that they do it well.
This is where we get our forecast cone, and if you’re looking for a potential path– this is what you should trust

Keep in mind the cone is the possible path track.
It could still stray to the far eastern or western side of the forecast cone, drastically changing the impacts of the storm on the southeastern U.S.

The Models

For those that want something more, we can take a look at the individual models that go into the complete forecast.
  • GFS: Global Forecast System. 13 kilometer grid covering the entire planet factoring in numerous variables to predict weather out to 16 days.
  • NAM: North American Mesoscale Forecast System. 12 kilometer grid covering the North American continent, with the ability to run high-resolution forecasts.
  • EURO (ECMWF) European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. 9 kilometer grid and historically one of the most accurate models in tropical forecasting.
  • BAMS: Baron Services proprietary model used by WeatherNation. 15 kilometer forecast grid used in this model run.
 ECMWF model forecasts (courtesy of NYTimes)
often considered as more accurate than GFS model

Through Saturday morning these 4 models are less than 40 miles apart.
Sitting between Cuba and the Bahamas.


By Sunday morning the different forecast movements start to become more prominent.
Still no more than 100 miles apart, there is agreement on path– speed becomes the separator.


By Sunday afternoon both the EURO and the NAM make a southern Florida landfall while the GFS and BAMS stay off the east coast of Florida.


Sunday evening both the NAM and EURO move inland while the BAMS nears the Miami coastline.
The GFS remains offshore and speeds up with no land interaction.


Monday morning the models start spreading out.
Tens of miles turn to hundreds of miles as land makes its mark on the storm’s speed.
To be perfectly honest, the faster and farther offshore the better.


By Monday evening even more so.


Your Best Bet

Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
The most accurate forecast at any time will be the National Hurricane Center’s forecast cone.



It is updated every few hours throughout the day alone with advisories from around the region.

Hurricane Irma questions to National Hurricane Center acting Director Ed Rappaport

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Friday, September 8, 2017

The coral reef loss data hidden in old navigational charts



Example of nearshore coral loss near Key West, Florida.
(A) Excerpt of Guald’s 1774 nautical chart, with locations of coral indicated with black rectangles. The inset shows an enlarged image of two adjacent historical coral references. (B) Same area today, represented by Google Earth imagery overlaid on the compiled modern benthic habitat map. Black rectangles indicate areas of coral persistence; gray rectangles indicate coral loss.

Credit: Loren McClenachan

From AtlasObscura by Cara Giaimo

In the Florida Keys, researchers have found an important new way to estimate what’s been lost.

In 1774 and 1775, as the upper part of North America girded for war, a British surveyor named George Gauld was sailing around the Florida Keys, putting together maps.
The British Admiralty had sent him, and he made a point of marking, directly on his charts, wherever the natural landscape could affect naval movement.
“The Bank is full of Coral Patches and no Vessel ought to venture into less than 3 fathoms,” he wrote along the coast of one island in the South Keys.
He captioned blocks of water, carefully noting where “Coral” gave way to “Large Rocks,” or “Fine white Sand & Clay.”


Sepia tone: Gauld (1775), Upper Keys

Nearly two and a half centuries later, a different group of people are eager to know what he found. For a recent paper in Science Advances, a group of environmental scientists and historians teamed up to compare Gauld’s detailed maps to contemporary satellite surveys of coral reefs, in order to calculate how much reef cover has diminished over the past 250 years.
This long view, they think, could provide a more nuanced look at where coral is, was, and could be.

A detail of Gauld’s 1774 map, demonstrating his precise coral recording.
Loren McClenachan

Scientists hoping to get a handle on historic species populations have long turned to creative sources, many repurposed from more commercial endeavors.
Researchers working on the Census of Marine Life’s History of Marine Animal Populations project, for example, have looked at whaling records, fishery statistics, and even restaurant menus to estimate species counts.
Oyster fisheries have mapped out their beds since the late 19th century, and the same era’s nautical charts can help current geographers keep track of shoreline changes.

 Historical coral maps and zones and all historical coral observations
Color map: Gauld (1774), Lower Keys.

When Loren McClenachan came across Gauld’s maps nearly 10 years ago, in the archives of the United Kingdom Hydrographic Office, she knew they’d prove similarly useful.
“There was a lot of ecological information in them,” McClenachan, the study’s lead author and an environmental studies professor at Colby College, says.
“He wrote down where the turtles nested, and he described the mangroves.”
It did take her a while to figure out exactly how best to make use of them, though.
“I actually printed out a life-size replica and put it on my wall of my graduate student apartment at the time, and just sort of looked at it for a while.”

 Coral (Co nautical chart symbol) area in the Florida Keys
with the GeoGarage platform (NOAA chart)

Eventually, it clicked.
Gauld had been particularly careful about coral in the Keys, noting exactly where and how deep down the reefs were—the 18th century version of high-resolution data.
Meanwhile, a number of recent surveys, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Unified Florida Coral Reef Tract Map and the United Nations’ Millennium Coral Reef Mapping Project, had done satellite sweeps of that same area.
“We figured out that we could compare [Gauld’s observations] to the satellite data,” McClenachan says.

George Gauld's Plan of Part of the Florida Keys,
from Bahia Honda to Cayo Largo,
 courtesy of Heritage Charts

To do this, the researchers first translated Gauld’s various notes and markings into 143 geographically discrete “coral observations,” basically dots on a map that meant “coral was here.”
They then used a composite of three modern satellite surveys to check whether it was still present in that spot.
For over half the space surveyed, the answer was a resounding “no.”
“We estimate a 52 percent loss in the occurrence of corals in the Florida Keys over 240 years,” the researchers write.
“That is, just more than half of the historical coral observations are in locations where coral habitat does not exist today… Our analysis demonstrates that entire sections of the reef that were present before European settlement are now largely gone.”
They call these sections “ghost reefs.”
"An accurate chart of the Tortugas & Florida Keys or Martyrs surveyed..."
(scale : 1:135,000), bathymetrics shown by shading and soundings
published by William Faden (1790), and based on surveys conducted by George Gauld in the area from 1773-1775, who had been assigned by the British Admiralty to chart the waters off West Florida, where he was taken prisoner by Spanish forces during the siege of Pensacola, in 1781.
source : State Library of Florida, Florida Map Collection

When the researchers examined their results more closely, they also found that the coral vanished asymmetrically: the areas that lost the most reef cover tended to be closer to the shore.
Meanwhile, the farther out you went, the more coral stuck around.
In fact, “the alignment of historical and modern coral is nearly exact in some locations,” the researchers write, “suggesting little change to the overall reef structure.”

This also posits a diagnosis for the disappearance.
“We can’t pinpoint the reasons for decline—we just have these snapshots of then and now,” says McClenachan.
“But other lines of evidence make it seem likely that those [inshore corals] were lost due to human impacts,” such as dredging, shoreline hardening, and the rechanneling of the Everglades, which changed the salinity of Florida Bay.



A strong spatial gradient to coral loss in the Florida Keys.
(A) Study area.
(B). Modern and historical coral occurrences in the Florida Keys. The color of dots corresponds with the five delineated coral zones.
(C) Enlarged area demonstrates the loss of coral from Florida Bay (red).
(D) Enlarged area (Bahia Honda) demonstrates the loss of the nearshore patch reef (yellow) and the persistence of coral in the reef crest zone (blue).
For (C) and (D), corals that no longer remain are indicated with an X.
(E) Percent loss by zone. Bars represent the mean estimate of loss derived from three distance thresholds diameters (0.25, 0.5, and 0.75 km).
Error bars represent the SEs across those three estimates.

Coral today also live precarious lives: pollution is choking them out, careless boating is breaking them up, and climate change is warming and acidifying their habitats, killing off the algae that bring them to life.
(Hurricanes, like the one currently barreling toward the Keys, also don’t tend to do them any favors.)
If you’re used to reading coral studies, which regularly describe 75 percent declines in live coral over mere decades, a 52 percent loss over centuries might not seem so bad.

But McClenachan is quick to point out that this study is diagnosing a completely different category of disappearance: this 52 percent loss happened so completely, we no longer even look for coral in those places, because we don’t remember that it was ever there.
“It’s not a decline in live coral,” says McClenachan.
“It’s the entire loss of those reefs.”

To McClenachan, this recontextualization is part of what makes historical studies meaningful.
“If you don’t know about change, you’re not going to recognize it,” she says.
“When that happens over time, we have these lowered expectations for nature generally.”
It’s not just that we have a better idea of the destruction we’ve caused: expanding our historic imagination allows us to improve research in the present, and to think bigger for the future.

Currently, the Florida Keys are very invested in restoring coral reefs, re-seeding baby corals on existing reef sites and researching ways to make species more resilient as oceans change.
Knowing where the coral used to be could influence these plans.
“If you don’t know that it’s there it doesn’t make sense to look for it,” McClenachan says.
But if you know that George Gauld once kept his eyes peeled, you might start, too.

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