Sunday, September 10, 2017

Water II

Water II from Morgan Maassen
An ode to the sea, which i revere most… Morgan Maassen
Water II is another fine example of his capacity to find a unique perspective of life at sea. 
Filmed in Hawaii, Tahiti, Maldives, Barbados, Indonesia, Mexico and California.

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Saturday, September 9, 2017

Comparing forecast models for Irma

courtesy of Google Crisis

From WeatherNation by Meteorologist Jeremy LaGoo

There’s a lot of talk of the uncertainty of exact track of Hurricane Irma as it nears a potential U.S.
landfall.
While we do our best as meteorologists to forecast an exact path of a given storm, there are countless factors that go into determining a given path.

NASA image of Irma's Towering Clouds
The MISR instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite is comprised of nine cameras that view Earth at different angles. By combining two of MISR’s images of Hurricane Irma, you can get a 3-D look at the storm. You’ll need red-blue glasses to see the full effect.

The best forecasters of a potential path are at the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasting tropical systems is what these men and women do, so it only makes sense that they do it well.
This is where we get our forecast cone, and if you’re looking for a potential path– this is what you should trust

Keep in mind the cone is the possible path track.
It could still stray to the far eastern or western side of the forecast cone, drastically changing the impacts of the storm on the southeastern U.S.

The Models

For those that want something more, we can take a look at the individual models that go into the complete forecast.
  • GFS: Global Forecast System. 13 kilometer grid covering the entire planet factoring in numerous variables to predict weather out to 16 days.
  • NAM: North American Mesoscale Forecast System. 12 kilometer grid covering the North American continent, with the ability to run high-resolution forecasts.
  • EURO (ECMWF) European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. 9 kilometer grid and historically one of the most accurate models in tropical forecasting.
  • BAMS: Baron Services proprietary model used by WeatherNation. 15 kilometer forecast grid used in this model run.
 ECMWF model forecasts (courtesy of NYTimes)
often considered as more accurate than GFS model

Through Saturday morning these 4 models are less than 40 miles apart.
Sitting between Cuba and the Bahamas.


By Sunday morning the different forecast movements start to become more prominent.
Still no more than 100 miles apart, there is agreement on path– speed becomes the separator.


By Sunday afternoon both the EURO and the NAM make a southern Florida landfall while the GFS and BAMS stay off the east coast of Florida.


Sunday evening both the NAM and EURO move inland while the BAMS nears the Miami coastline.
The GFS remains offshore and speeds up with no land interaction.


Monday morning the models start spreading out.
Tens of miles turn to hundreds of miles as land makes its mark on the storm’s speed.
To be perfectly honest, the faster and farther offshore the better.


By Monday evening even more so.


Your Best Bet

Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
The most accurate forecast at any time will be the National Hurricane Center’s forecast cone.



It is updated every few hours throughout the day alone with advisories from around the region.

Hurricane Irma questions to National Hurricane Center acting Director Ed Rappaport

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Friday, September 8, 2017

The coral reef loss data hidden in old navigational charts



Example of nearshore coral loss near Key West, Florida.
(A) Excerpt of Guald’s 1774 nautical chart, with locations of coral indicated with black rectangles. The inset shows an enlarged image of two adjacent historical coral references. (B) Same area today, represented by Google Earth imagery overlaid on the compiled modern benthic habitat map. Black rectangles indicate areas of coral persistence; gray rectangles indicate coral loss.

Credit: Loren McClenachan

From AtlasObscura by Cara Giaimo

In the Florida Keys, researchers have found an important new way to estimate what’s been lost.

In 1774 and 1775, as the upper part of North America girded for war, a British surveyor named George Gauld was sailing around the Florida Keys, putting together maps.
The British Admiralty had sent him, and he made a point of marking, directly on his charts, wherever the natural landscape could affect naval movement.
“The Bank is full of Coral Patches and no Vessel ought to venture into less than 3 fathoms,” he wrote along the coast of one island in the South Keys.
He captioned blocks of water, carefully noting where “Coral” gave way to “Large Rocks,” or “Fine white Sand & Clay.”


Sepia tone: Gauld (1775), Upper Keys

Nearly two and a half centuries later, a different group of people are eager to know what he found. For a recent paper in Science Advances, a group of environmental scientists and historians teamed up to compare Gauld’s detailed maps to contemporary satellite surveys of coral reefs, in order to calculate how much reef cover has diminished over the past 250 years.
This long view, they think, could provide a more nuanced look at where coral is, was, and could be.

A detail of Gauld’s 1774 map, demonstrating his precise coral recording.
Loren McClenachan

Scientists hoping to get a handle on historic species populations have long turned to creative sources, many repurposed from more commercial endeavors.
Researchers working on the Census of Marine Life’s History of Marine Animal Populations project, for example, have looked at whaling records, fishery statistics, and even restaurant menus to estimate species counts.
Oyster fisheries have mapped out their beds since the late 19th century, and the same era’s nautical charts can help current geographers keep track of shoreline changes.

 Historical coral maps and zones and all historical coral observations
Color map: Gauld (1774), Lower Keys.

When Loren McClenachan came across Gauld’s maps nearly 10 years ago, in the archives of the United Kingdom Hydrographic Office, she knew they’d prove similarly useful.
“There was a lot of ecological information in them,” McClenachan, the study’s lead author and an environmental studies professor at Colby College, says.
“He wrote down where the turtles nested, and he described the mangroves.”
It did take her a while to figure out exactly how best to make use of them, though.
“I actually printed out a life-size replica and put it on my wall of my graduate student apartment at the time, and just sort of looked at it for a while.”

 Coral (Co nautical chart symbol) area in the Florida Keys
with the GeoGarage platform (NOAA chart)

Eventually, it clicked.
Gauld had been particularly careful about coral in the Keys, noting exactly where and how deep down the reefs were—the 18th century version of high-resolution data.
Meanwhile, a number of recent surveys, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Unified Florida Coral Reef Tract Map and the United Nations’ Millennium Coral Reef Mapping Project, had done satellite sweeps of that same area.
“We figured out that we could compare [Gauld’s observations] to the satellite data,” McClenachan says.

George Gauld's Plan of Part of the Florida Keys,
from Bahia Honda to Cayo Largo,
 courtesy of Heritage Charts

To do this, the researchers first translated Gauld’s various notes and markings into 143 geographically discrete “coral observations,” basically dots on a map that meant “coral was here.”
They then used a composite of three modern satellite surveys to check whether it was still present in that spot.
For over half the space surveyed, the answer was a resounding “no.”
“We estimate a 52 percent loss in the occurrence of corals in the Florida Keys over 240 years,” the researchers write.
“That is, just more than half of the historical coral observations are in locations where coral habitat does not exist today… Our analysis demonstrates that entire sections of the reef that were present before European settlement are now largely gone.”
They call these sections “ghost reefs.”
"An accurate chart of the Tortugas & Florida Keys or Martyrs surveyed..."
(scale : 1:135,000), bathymetrics shown by shading and soundings
published by William Faden (1790), and based on surveys conducted by George Gauld in the area from 1773-1775, who had been assigned by the British Admiralty to chart the waters off West Florida, where he was taken prisoner by Spanish forces during the siege of Pensacola, in 1781.
source : State Library of Florida, Florida Map Collection

When the researchers examined their results more closely, they also found that the coral vanished asymmetrically: the areas that lost the most reef cover tended to be closer to the shore.
Meanwhile, the farther out you went, the more coral stuck around.
In fact, “the alignment of historical and modern coral is nearly exact in some locations,” the researchers write, “suggesting little change to the overall reef structure.”

This also posits a diagnosis for the disappearance.
“We can’t pinpoint the reasons for decline—we just have these snapshots of then and now,” says McClenachan.
“But other lines of evidence make it seem likely that those [inshore corals] were lost due to human impacts,” such as dredging, shoreline hardening, and the rechanneling of the Everglades, which changed the salinity of Florida Bay.



A strong spatial gradient to coral loss in the Florida Keys.
(A) Study area.
(B). Modern and historical coral occurrences in the Florida Keys. The color of dots corresponds with the five delineated coral zones.
(C) Enlarged area demonstrates the loss of coral from Florida Bay (red).
(D) Enlarged area (Bahia Honda) demonstrates the loss of the nearshore patch reef (yellow) and the persistence of coral in the reef crest zone (blue).
For (C) and (D), corals that no longer remain are indicated with an X.
(E) Percent loss by zone. Bars represent the mean estimate of loss derived from three distance thresholds diameters (0.25, 0.5, and 0.75 km).
Error bars represent the SEs across those three estimates.

Coral today also live precarious lives: pollution is choking them out, careless boating is breaking them up, and climate change is warming and acidifying their habitats, killing off the algae that bring them to life.
(Hurricanes, like the one currently barreling toward the Keys, also don’t tend to do them any favors.)
If you’re used to reading coral studies, which regularly describe 75 percent declines in live coral over mere decades, a 52 percent loss over centuries might not seem so bad.

But McClenachan is quick to point out that this study is diagnosing a completely different category of disappearance: this 52 percent loss happened so completely, we no longer even look for coral in those places, because we don’t remember that it was ever there.
“It’s not a decline in live coral,” says McClenachan.
“It’s the entire loss of those reefs.”

To McClenachan, this recontextualization is part of what makes historical studies meaningful.
“If you don’t know about change, you’re not going to recognize it,” she says.
“When that happens over time, we have these lowered expectations for nature generally.”
It’s not just that we have a better idea of the destruction we’ve caused: expanding our historic imagination allows us to improve research in the present, and to think bigger for the future.

Currently, the Florida Keys are very invested in restoring coral reefs, re-seeding baby corals on existing reef sites and researching ways to make species more resilient as oceans change.
Knowing where the coral used to be could influence these plans.
“If you don’t know that it’s there it doesn’t make sense to look for it,” McClenachan says.
But if you know that George Gauld once kept his eyes peeled, you might start, too.

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Thursday, September 7, 2017

Hurricane Irma’s epic size is being fuelled by global warming

The map above shows sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico on September 5, 2017.
The data were compiled by Coral Reef Watch, which blends observations from the Suomi NPP, MTSAT, Meteosat, and GOES satellites and computer models.
The mid-point of the color scale is 27.8°C, a threshold that scientists generally believe to be warm enough to fuel a hurricane.
The yellow-to-red line on the map represents Irma’s track from September 3–6.

From New Scientist by Michael Le Page

It’s a monster.
As the eye of Hurricane Irma approached the tiny island of Barbuda this morning, wind speeds soared to 250 kph before the instrument broke.

On September 6, 2017, Hurricane Irma slammed into the Leeward Islands on its way toward Puerto Rico, Cuba, and the U.S. mainland.
As the category 5 storm approaches the Bahamas and Florida in the coming days, it will be passing over waters that are warmer than 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit)—hot enough to sustain a category 5 storm.
Warm oceans, along with low wind shear, are two key ingredients that fuel and sustain hurricanes.
The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi NPP satellite captured a nighttime view of the storm at 1:35 a.m. local time (05:35 Universal Time) on September 6 as the eye was over the island of Barbuda.
The image was acquired by the VIIRS “day-night band,” which detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared and uses filtering techniques to observe signals such as city lights, auroras, wildfires, and reflected moonlight.
In this case, the clouds were lit by the full Moon.
The image is a composite, showing storm imagery combined with VIIRS imagery of city lights.

At the time of writing, all contact with the island had been lost and it is unclear how the 1600 inhabitants have fared.
But already reports of severe destruction are coming in from other islands in Irma’s path.

The destruction could be extreme.
Hurricane Irma has the strongest winds of any hurricane to form in the open Atlantic, with sustained wind speeds of 295 kph.

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite acquired the third image at 10:35 a.m. local time (14:35 Universal Time) on September 6, 2017.
By then, the storm had also hit Anguilla and was poised to strike the Virgin Islands.

It is also huge.
The strongest winds are limited to a relatively small area around its centre, but hurricane-force winds of 118 kph or more extend out 85 kilometres from its eye.

Irma could yet grow stronger and is going to graze or directly hit many densely-populated islands in the Caribbean before possibly making landfall in Florida on Sunday – but there is still a lot of uncertainty about its path and intensity this far ahead.

 NASA SPoRT Sea Surface Temperature product shows warm water along projected path of Hurricane Irma, favorable for maintaining strength.

Warmer waters

So why did Irma grow so strong?
Most likely because climate change is making Atlantic waters ever warmer.

Tropical cyclones are fuelled by warm surface waters of around 26°C or more.
They draw in moist air from all around them, and as it rises, the water vapour condenses out and releases latent heat, which drives further uplift. Irma’s clouds are 20 kilometres high.


However, as tropical cyclones grow stronger they churn up the ocean and bring deeper water to the surface.
Usually this deeper water is cooler, and cuts off the energy supply.

The strongest hurricanes, then, can only grow if warm waters extend down to depth of 50 or 100 metres – conditions normally only found in the Gulf or Caribbean.

In 1990, Hurricane Allen reached 305 kph winds, fuelled by these warmer waters.
In 2017’s warmer world, Irma began growing way out in the Atlantic, thanks to sea surface temperatures that were more than 1°C above average.

Bars depict number of named systems (yellow), hurricanes (red), and category 3 or greater (purple), 1850-2014

Stronger storms

Hurricane intensity depends on many other factors, too, though.
For instance, winds high in the atmosphere are often faster than those lower down, blowing away rising air and preventing hurricanes from forming, or growing very strong.
Low wind shear helped Irma grow into a perfect storm.

Computer models suggest global warming is likely to increase wind shear over the Atlantic, meaning there could no more or fewer hurricanes overall, but that storms grow stronger when they do form.

While tropical cyclones are currently ranked according to their wind speed, storm surges and flooding from high rainfall typically cause most of the damage, as we saw with Harvey.

The height of a storm surge depends not just on the strength of winds, but on their extent.
Hurricane Sandy’s winds were not that strong but the size of the storm piled up the huge storm surge that caused most of the damage in New York and elsewhere.

So strong winds don’t necessarily mean big damage.
The record is held by Hurricane Patricia in the eastern Pacific in 2015, with sustained winds of 345 kph.
Fortunately Patricia was small, weakened dramatically before landfall and struck a sparsely populated area.


Irma, ominously, is both big and intense, and could cause big storm surges in highly populated places. Barbuda recorded a storm surge of 2.4 metres.

The amount of rainfall dumped by hurricanes can also vary widely depending both on a storm’s intensity, local factor and how fast it moves.
Harvey produced huge amounts of rain because it barely moved for days.

Irma, thankfully, is moving faster – but its behaviour more than two or three days ahead remains highly uncertain.

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Wednesday, September 6, 2017

Irma: Atlantic's most powerful hurricane ever makes landfall in Caribbean

 This animation of NOAA's GOES East satellite imagery from Sept. 2 at 7:45 a.m. EDT (1145 UTC) to Sept. 5 ending at 7:15 a.m. CDT (1115 UTC) shows Hurricane Irma move west toward the Leeward Islands and strengthen to a Category 5 storm on Sept. 5.
Credit: NASA-NOAA GOES Project


Eye of hurricane passes over Barbuda, bringing down phone lines, as heavy rain and howling winds hit neighbouring island of Antigua

The most powerful Atlantic Ocean hurricane in recorded history has made its first landfall in the islands of the north-east Caribbean, following a path predicted to then rake Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba before possibly heading for Florida over the weekend.

How strong is Hurricane Irma?
It’s registering on earthquake-detecting seismometers
 courtesy of NOAA

The eye of Hurricane Irma passed over Barbuda at about 1.47 am local time, the National Weather Service said.
Residents said over local radio that phone lines went down.
Heavy rain and howling winds hit the neighbouring island of Antigua, sending debris flying as people huddled in their homes or government shelters.

GOES-16 captured this infrared imagery of category 5 hurricane Irma bearing down on the Leeward Islands on September 5, 2017.
Note the gravity wave pattern emanating outward.
Irma was centered at 2 p.m. EDT on September 5, 2017, about 180 miles east of the Antigua, moving toward the west near 14 mph.
Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 185 mph with higher gusts.
On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma is forecast to move over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonight and early Wednesday.

Officials warned people to seek protection from Irma’s “onslaught” in a statement that closed with: “May God protect us all.”

In Barbuda, the storm ripped off the roof of the island’s police station, forcing officers to seek refuge in the nearby fire station and at the community centre that served as an official shelter.
The Category 5 storm also knocked out communication between islands.

The category 5 storm had maximum sustained winds of 185mph (295kph) by early Tuesday evening, according to the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami.


Irma strengthens into a category 5 hurricane with winds reaching up to 180 MPH and moving west at 14 MPH. It is the most powerful storm in 10 years.
Keep an eye on the forecast and hope for the best.
Category 5 hurricanes are rare and are capable of inflicting life-threatening winds, storm surges and rainfall.
Hurricane Harvey, which last week devastated Houston, was category 4.

Other islands in the path of the storm included the US and British Virgin Islands and Anguilla, a small, low-lying British island territory of about 15,000 people.

US president Donald Trump declared emergencies in Florida, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.

Warm water is fuel for hurricanes and Irma is over water that is one degree celsius (1.8F) warmer than normal.
The 26C (79F) water that hurricanes need goes about 250 feet deep (80m), said Jeff Masters, meteorology director of the private forecasting service Weather Underground.

Four other storms have had winds as strong in the overall Atlantic region but they were in the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico, which are usually home to warmer waters that fuel cyclones. Hurricane Allen hit 190mph in 1980, while 2005’s Wilma, 1988’s Gilbert and a 1935 great Florida Key storm all had 185mph winds.

The storm’s eye was expected to pass about 50 miles (80km) from Puerto Rico late on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 60 miles (95km) from Irma’s centre and tropical storm-force winds extended outward up to 175 miles (280km).

credit : EarthNull

with tropical storm José close behind Irma
credit : Meteo France

The northern Leeward Islands were expected to see waves as high as 11 feet (3.3 metres), while the Turks and Caicos Islands and south-eastern Bahamas could see towering 20-foot (six-metre) waves later in the week, forecasters said.

Irma is expected to dump up to 18 inches (45cm) of rain in some areas when it hits land.
“These rainfall amounts may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides,” the NHC warned, calling the storm “potentially catastrophic” and urging that “preparations should be rushed to completion” in the region.

Schools and government offices in French overseas territory Guadeloupe have been ordered shut, while hospitals are stocking up on medicines, food and drinking water.
People living on shorelines will be moved to safety, authorities said.

The popular holiday destinations of Saint Barthelemy and St Maarten – a French territory and a French-Dutch split island respectively – are expected to be especially hard hit.
The Dutch defense minister said soldiers arrived in the Dutch part of St Maarten on Monday and two vessels, including one equipped with a helicopter, were in place to help.

Officials had on Monday ordered the evacuation of 11,000 people living in affected areas on both islands, which began in many neighbourhoods on Tuesday.
 
Winds and waves on W4D 2.0 mobile app

“This is not an opportunity to go outside and try to have fun with a hurricane,” US Virgin Islands governor Kenneth Mapp warned.
“It’s not time to get on a surfboard.”

The National Weather Service said Puerto Rico had not seen a hurricane of Irma’s magnitude since Hurricane San Felipe in 1928, which killed a total of 2,748 people in Guadeloupe, Puerto Rico and Florida.
“The dangerousness of this event is like nothing we’ve ever seen,” Puerto Rico governor Ricardo Rossello said.
“A lot of infrastructure won’t be able to withstand this kind of force.”
The director of the island’s power company has warned that storm damage could leave some areas without electricity for about a week and others for four to six months.
The utility’s infrastructure has deteriorated greatly during a decade-long recession, and Puerto Ricans experienced an island-wide outage last year.

 Irma view from the ISS

Government officials began evacuations and urged people to finalize all preparations as store shelves emptied out around Puerto Rico.
“The decisions that we make in the next couple of hours can make the difference between life and death,” Rossello said.
“This is an extremely dangerous storm.”
No directly storm-related deaths were reported by Tuesday evening but a 75-year-old man died in the central Puerto Rico mountain town of Orocovis after he fell from a ladder while preparing for the hurricane, police said.
The eye of the storm was expected to roar westward on a path taking it north of millions of people in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba, but meteorologists warned that it could still cause life-threatening storm surges, rains and mudslides.

The northern parts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti could see 10 inches (25cm) of rain, with as much as 20 inches in the south-east Bahamas and Turks and Caicos.

The storm seemed almost certain to hit the United States by early next week.
“You’d be hard pressed to find any model that doesn’t have some impact on Florida,” said University of Miami senior hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy.
In Florida, people also stocked up on drinking water and other supplies.
Governor Rick Scott activated 100 members of the Florida National Guard to be deployed across the state, and 7,000 National Guard members were to report for duty on Friday when the storm could be approaching the area.
On Monday, Scott declared a state of emergency in all of Florida’s 67 counties.
Officials in the Florida Keys geared up to get tourists and residents out of Irma’s path, and the mayor of Miami-Dade county said people should be prepared to evacuate Miami Beach and most of the county’s coastal areas.
Mayor Carlos Giménez said the voluntary evacuations could begin as soon as Wednesday evening. He activated the emergency operation centre and urged residents to have three days’ worth of food and water.

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