New Zealand Linz update in the GeoGarage platform

Wellington Harbour, one of the 13 nautical raster charts updated by Linz

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Model upgrade brings sea-ice coupling and higher ocean resolution

The higher ocean resolution for ensemble forecasts in IFS Cycle 43r1 results in forecast fields that reveal more detailed features and fit more snugly along coastlines.

This is illustrated by these forecasts of daily mean sea-surface temperature for 18 November 2016, initialised at 00 UTC on the same day, using the previous model version (top) and the new model version (bottom).

From ECMWF

ECMWF implemented a new version of its forecasting system on 22 November, which introduces a dynamic sea-ice model and increases the resolution of the ocean model.
These and other changes to the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) significantly improve the Centre’s weather predictions.
The interactive sea-ice model in the new IFS Cycle 43r1 is used to produce ensemble forecasts in which the atmosphere, oceans and sea-ice are dynamically coupled.
Ensemble forecasts provide a range of likely scenarios and give an indication of the degree of confidence we can have in the forecast.

Forecast of daily mean sea-surface temperature for 18 November 2016,

initialized at 00 UTC on the same day, using IFS Cycle 43r1.

 
Bringing additional Earth system components into the model and developing ECMWF's ensemble forecast capabilities are important elements of the Centre's new ten-year Strategy.
Introducing interactive sea ice also makes it possible to predict changes in sea-ice cover during the forecast. In the previous model version, sea-ice cover was left static up to forecast day 15.

Dynamic predictions of sea-ice cover produce very different results from the assumption of static sea-ice cover.

This is illustrated by this two-week ensemble forecast from 2 November 2016 (blue lines), which shows a significant evolution from the initial conditions (dashed orange line).

Subsequent verification (pink line) shows that the dynamic forecast is much closer to observations than the static sea-ice cover.

The spread of the blue lines gives an indication of the range of likely scenarios given inevitable uncertainties in the evolution of atmospheric and ocean conditions.

The sea-ice model is LIM2, the Louvain-la-Neuve Sea Ice Model developed at the Belgian Université catholique de Louvain.
It is part of the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) modelling framework also used at ECMWF to model the ocean.
In another significant development, the resolution of the ocean model used in ensemble forecasts has gone up from 1 degree and 42 layers to 0.25 degrees and 75 layers.
This means that small-scale ocean circulation features are better captured and coastlines are better resolved than previously.

Other innovations include changes in the representation of some low-level clouds to reduce cloud cover bias, and in the coupling between the surface and the atmosphere to improve 2-metre temperature forecasts.
There are new cloud and freezing level output fields for aviation; a new sun-following radiation output for solar panels; and eight new wave model output fields, including the magnitude and direction of the wave energy flux that is responsible for the impact of waves on coastlines and offshore structures.

Better weather forecasts

Improvements in forecast skill can be seen in a range of weather parameters.
These include 2-metre temperature, in particular in ensemble forecasts, and 10-metre wind speed over the ocean.
There are also consistent gains for total cloud cover in the tropics as well as the extra-tropics.
In particular, IFS Cycle 43r1 reduces the model’s tendency to predict too much cloud at high latitudes during winter.

Improvements in cloud cover bias are particularly noticeable at high latitudes.

The plot shows the percentage change in total cloud cover bias in the new IFS cycle for 48-hour forecasts compared to observations for the period November 2015 to January 2016.

Negative values mean a reduction in bias; -100% means the bias has been completely eliminated over that period.

 
The new IFS cycle brings a range of other changes which improve the performance of specific parts of the forecasting system, including indications of severe weather.
The Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) flags up the risk of extreme weather compared to a reference climate for the relevant region and time of year.
One of the changes in IFS Cycle 43r1 is a more accurate representation of the reference climate. This leads to the elimination of spurious EFI signals in some situations.

The charts show 10-day EFI forecasts for 2-metre temperature at the northern tip of the Red Sea initialised on 8 November 2016. In IFS Cycle 43r1, the representation of the EFI reference climate has been improved.

Spurious EFI signals in the previous version (left) are thus avoided in the new version (right).

The modelling changes, together with changes in data assimilation and in the use of observations, also bring improvements to high-resolution and ensemble forecasts of upper-air parameters.
In the extra-tropics, error reductions in the order of 0.5–1% are found for most upper-air parameters and levels.
These reductions translate into improvements in ECMWF’s primary headline scores:

• The gain in the skilful range of ensemble forecasts of 850 hPa temperature in the extra-tropical northern hemisphere (defined as the lead time at which the Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score drops below 25%) is about 0.5 hours.
• The gain in the skilful range of high-resolution forecasts of 500 hPa geopotential in the extra-tropical northern hemisphere (defined as the lead time at which the anomaly correlation drops below 80%) is about 1 hour.

Full details of all the changes in this model cycle are available on the web page on the implementation of IFS Cycle 43r1.

A name directory for the ocean floor

Bathymetry image of Brothers Seamount and caldera, an undersea volcano about 3 kilometers in diameter off the coast of New Zealand.

Autonomous underwater vehicles acquired high-resolution (2-meter) bathymetry data inside the caldera.

Surface ships mapped the lower-resolution (25- to 30-meter) bathymetry data on the surrounding volcano flanks.

This feature was formally named using tools provided by the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO).

Credit: S. Merle (NOAA/PMEL)

From EOS by By Vaughan Stagpoole, Hans Werner Schenke, and Yasuhiko Ohara

The Izu-Ogasawara Trench, a deep-sea trench south of Japan, was discovered in 1933 and named after the nearby Ogasawara Islands.
However, the Ogasawara Islands have also been called the Bonin Islands: They are the type locality for the volcanic rock boninite [Crawford, 1989].
Consequently, the Izu-Ogasawara Trench is often incorrectly and confusingly referred to as the “Izu-Bonin Trench.”
Newly discovered undersea features are often given informal names that over a period of years, with repeated use, become incorporated into maps and scientific papers.
Historically, this has sometimes led to confusion and misidentification.
Occasionally, one name has been used for several different features, or a single feature has been named independently by different groups, resulting in several different informal names.
One might think that with the rise of global communications and data-sharing networks, this problem might resolve itself.
However, new ocean exploration technologies are exacerbating this old problem by adding to the inflow of new information.

An increasing number of ships now routinely survey our oceans, and we are learning more about the seafloor and its features.
The rapid developments in multibeam sonar technology and the deployment of these instruments on remotely operated vehicles (ROV) and autonomous underwater vehicles (AUV) mean that some features only tens of meters in relief are now being mapped and named.
To ensure that these features’ names don’t get renamed on subsequent cruises, scientists turn to a reliable tool: the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO) Gazetteer online interactive map.
This map is supplemented with other online resources, including naming guidelines, links to proposal forms, and a glossary.
GEBCO’s Sub-Committee on Undersea Feature Names (SCUFN) is also developing new Web applications to facilitate collaboration and coordination for naming undersea features within the world’s oceans.
These future applications, plus the new Web supplemental resources, will assist users in completing name proposals and should help speed up the review and approval process.

 Louisville seamounts

The GEBCO Gazetteer

GEBCO, an international group of experts in ocean surveying and mapping, established SCUFN in 1975 when the need became apparent for a uniform policy for the handling and standardization of undersea feature names.
GEBCO’s aim is to provide the most authoritative publicly available bathymetry of the world’s oceans, including undersea feature names.SCUFN reviews name proposals for undersea features that lie entirely or mainly (more than 50%) outside the external limits of territorial waters.
The subcommittee comprises a multinational group of hydrographers and Earth scientists. SCUFN is supported by a secretariat based at the International Hydrographic Organization in Monaco, which coordinates its activities and maintains the GEBCO Undersea Feature Names Gazetteer.
This gazetteer contains a list of more than 3800 named features throughout the oceans.
Several national naming authorities and geographic naming boards also maintain separate gazetteers that include names of undersea features outside territorial waters, and SCUFN endeavors to harmonize the GEBCO Gazetteer with these names.
The gazetteer enables users to search and view features quickly.
It also provides further metainformation (where it is available) about feature dimensions, the discoverer, and the origin of the name.
Proposers of new undersea feature names or journal reviewers can use this resource to ensure that names are not duplicated or features are not already named.

 This image shows over 14,000 large seamounts identified from a mid-resolution bathymetric map, using methods outlined in Kitchingman and Lai (2005).

There are more small seamounts, but their distribution should be roughly similar to that shown here.

Proposing Undersea Feature Names

People who want to propose names for new features should use the GEBCO undersea feature names website.
This site describes the role of SCUFN and has useful links to proposal forms, naming guidelines, and meeting reports.
The SCUFN guidelines for naming features are given in the “Standardization of Undersea Feature Names,” International Hydrographic Organization Publication B-6, which is available in six languages.
This publication includes information about proposals along with examples of supporting documentation, including maps and images depicting the features.
Undersea feature names have two parts: a specific term and a generic term.
The specific term should primarily relate to nearby onshore or offshore features, the discovery ship, or an eminent maritime figure, explorer, or scientific researcher.
Other specific terms may be given to recognize cultural icons or traditions.
The generic term relates to the geometrical form of the feature (escarpment, seamount, trench, etc.) or, in special cases, the genesis of the feature. SCUFN regularly reviews generic terms, adding new terms as they become established in scientific usage and abandoning older terms that have fallen out of use.
For example, the Adare Trough, located in the Ross Sea off the coast of Oates Land, Antarctica, is a flat-bottomed depression with symmetrical, parallel sides that is more than 100 kilometers long.
The specific term “Adare” is from the nearby Cape Adare, and the generic term “trough” describes the morphology of the feature.

 The Adare Trough, located in the Ross Sea off the coast of Oates Land, Antarctica, has the specific name “Adare” that refers to the nearby Cape Adare and the generic name “trough” that describes the morphology of the feature.

The color scale gives the elevation in meters.

Credit: GNS Science

Several features in the GEBCO gazetteer have generic terms that are no longer recommended but are maintained to harmonize names with other gazetteers.
Definitions for generic terms, including example images of feature types, are now readily available on a new website.
This resource allows those proposing new undersea feature names to identify the correct generic term for the features they find.
Currently, proposals are emailed directly to the SCUFN secretariat (info@iho.int), where they are uploaded onto a Web application and shared with subcommittee members for review.
Final approval of proposed names is made at the annual SCUFN plenary meeting.
SCUFN members consider proposals in the chronological order of submission: Late proposals will be considered last if there is sufficient time at the plenary meeting.
For each of the past 5 years, SCUFN has reviewed between 70 and 200 names.
In 2016, the subcommittee reviewed 206 feature names, and 144 of these will be added to the GEBCO Gazetteer.

Mapping, Classifying, and Protecting Seamounts (GRID Arendal)
What are seamounts?
How are they mapped?
How are they classified?
How can we use these spatial data to protect marine environments?
These are some of the questions highlighted in this story map. 

Future Goals

We plan to enable users to submit undersea feature name proposals to SCUFN via a new Web application using an online form or by uploading a completed proposal document with accompanying images.
SCUFN members can then immediately access these submissions to assess feature names and share comments about each proposal.
In this way, the new interface will help speed up SCUFN review and approval processes.
We expect to unveil this new Web tool in 2017.
The online submission tool will include a facility for submitting geographic information system files (GIS shapefiles) that can be used to help evaluate the proposal and can be incorporated into the Web map application.
Until that tool launches, we encourage users of undersea feature names in scientific literature and on bathymetric maps to access the current iteration of the gazetteer as well as resources connecting them to generic feature terms and naming guidelines.
Once proposals become more streamlined, we will be well positioned to meet our goal: to increase the number of feature names in the GEBCO Gazetteer and to make them readily available to the scientific community for publications and Web map services.

Links :

• Seamounts online 
• Seamount catalog 
• GeoGarage blog : Life thriving on UK's biggest underwater mountains / The deep ocean: plunging to new depths to discover the ... / Seamount discovery / Scripps mapping subsea mountains taller than Mt. Whitney / Christmas Island seamounts: is the mystery finally solved? / Seamounts identified as significant, unexplored territory

Obama administration blocks Arctic oil drilling through 2022

Oil and Ice: The Risks of Drilling in Alaska's Arctic Ocean

Produced by The Center for American Progress

From HuffingtonPost by Chris d'Angelo

Citing environmental risks, the Interior Department called the plan the “right path forward.”

Further cementing President Barack Obama’s climate legacy, the Department of the Interior announced on Friday its intent to ban oil drilling in the U.S. section of the Arctic Ocean for the next five years, citing environmental risks.

 

 Arctic sea ice has not only been shrinking in surface area in recent years, it’s becoming younger and thinner as well. In this animation, where the ice cover almost looks gelatinous as it pulses through the seasons, cryospheric scientist Dr. Walt Meier of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center describes how the sea ice has undergone fundamental changes during the era of satellite measurements.This visualization incorrectly identifies the oldest ice as being 5+ years old, when it would be more accurate to say 4+ years old.

The plan blocks the sale of new offshore oil and gas leases in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas, north of Alaska, between 2017 and 2022.
“The plan focuses lease sales in the best places ― those with the highest resource potential, lowest conflict, and established infrastructure ― and removes regions that are simply not right to lease,” Secretary of the Interior Sally Jewell said in a statement.
“Given the unique and challenging Arctic environment and industry’s declining interest in the area, forgoing lease sales in the Arctic is the right path forward.”

The Obama administration’s proposed five-year program for oil and gas had included 13 potential lease sales — 10 in the Gulf of Mexico and one each in Alaska’s Cook Inlet, Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Sea.
In March, the White House abandoned plans to include the Atlantic Coast in the upcoming sale.

The Interior Department’s final plan, which limits drilling during the five-year period to the Gulf of Mexico and Cook Inlet, is being met with mixed reactions from environmental groups calling on Obama to use his executive power to permanently protect the fragile Arctic.

The plan is a “significant win for Arctic and Alaskan communities and a strong step towards addressing climate change” but continues to leave the Gulf of Mexico at risk, San Francisco-based nongovernmental organization Rainforest Action Network told The Huffington Post in a statement.
“This move locks the Gulf into another five years of corporate giveaways ― with decades more of climate pollution, offshore oil spills, devastation to fisheries, and health impacts to local communities,” RAN Executive Director Lindsey Allen said.
“A true transition from fossil fuels doesn’t allow for energy sacrifice zones, especially when we know the climate can’t handle further fossil fuel development.”

Carter Roberts, president and CEO of the World Wildlife Fund, applauded the announcement, saying there’s no proven technology to safely drill in the Arctic, and no way to clean up oil if it were to spill in frozen waters.
He added that he hopes more permanent protection would follow.

Earlier this week, NextGen Climate urged Obama to use his executive authority to permanently protect the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans from such drilling, noting the “dangerous agenda” of President-elect Donald Trump.
“The Trump Administration has the potential to do serious damage to our climate ― but in the last few months of his presidency, President Obama can take concrete steps to secure his environmental legacy,” NextGen President Tom Steyer said in a statement, adding it would continue to flight against “Trump’s dark vision and dangerous plans for our country.”

Such presidential executive action would be separate from the leasing program.

Unsurprisingly, the oil and gas industry is disappointed by the announcement.
The American Petroleum Institute, an industry trade group, called the move “short-sighted” and “detrimental.”
“Our national energy security depends on our ability to produce oil and natural gas here in the U.S., and this decision could very well increase the cost of energy for American consumers and close the door on creating new jobs and new investments for years,” API President and CEO Jack Gerard said.
“We are hopeful the incoming administration will reverse this decision ― consistent with the will of American voters.”

The proposed expansion of oil and gas drilling in the Arctic and Gulf would result in climate-related social costs between $58.6 and $179.2 billion, according to a Greenpeace report released in June ― enough to potentially outweigh the economic benefits of selling the energy.
The plan still requires Jewell’s final approval, and would take effect July 1, 2017.

As he has promised to do with so many of Obama’s previous actions aimed at combatting climate change, Trump will likely try to do away with Arctic drilling ban.
After all, the Republican president-elect has said he believes climate change is a “hoax.”
Trump pledged in May to pull the U.S. out of the historic Paris climate agreement.
He has also said he would cut all federal spending for climate change research, cleaner technologies and aid for communities already threatened by climate impacts.
For guidance, he has turned to climate change denier Myron Ebell and fossil fuel lobbyist Mike McKenna to help with transition work at the Environmental Protection Agency and Department of Energy.
Furthermore, Trump has said he would increase America’s production of coal, oil and natural gas, as well as do away with Obama administration regulations aimed at cutting emissions.

Global security leaders have warned Trump that failing to fight climate change could prove disastrous to national security, leading to increased risks of violent conflict and economic instability.
Retired Maj. Gen. Paul Eaton, managing director of the Vet Voice Foundation, applauded Obama’s decision as a win for national security.
“Encouraging oil and gas development in the Arctic would compromise our national security by placing additional demands on our military and undermine one of the globe’s most pressing national security concerns ― climate change,” he said in a statement to HuffPost.

The proposed final plan makes available more than 70 percent of the economically recoverable resources, which Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Director Abigail Ross Hopper said is “ample opportunity for oil and gas development to meet the nation’s energy needs.”
The bureau said a number of factors went into the decision to remove the Arctic from the plan, including “ecological conditions, environmental risks and recent changes in industry interest.”
Jacqueline Savitz of Oceana said the announcement “demonstrates a commitment to prioritizing common sense, economics and science ahead of industry favoritism and politics as usual.”

Links :

• Washington Post : On its way out, Obama administration moves to slam the door shut on Arctic drilling
• BBC : Obama bans new oil drilling in Arctic Ocean
• Christian Science : Obama bans Arctic drilling. Will Trump let it stand?
• Bloomberg : Obama's Offshore Oil Plan Forces Drillers to Focus on Gulf
• Eco Watch : Obama Takes Historic Action, Protects Arctic Ocean From Offshore Oil Drilling

Revolutionary weather satellite blasts off

The GOES-R series, NOAA's next-generation geostationary weather satellites, is a game changer. These satellites, beginning with the launch of GOES-R, will provide continuous imagery and atmospheric measurements of Earth’s Western Hemisphere, total lightning data, and space weather monitoring to provide critical atmospheric, hydrologic, oceanic, climatic, solar and space data.
These measurements will lead to significant improvements in the detection and observations of meteorological phenomena that directly affect public safety, protection of property and our GOES fleet in the GOES-R era nation’s economic health and prosperity.

 From The Verge by Loren Gush

An Atlas V rocket was all set 2 days ago to launch from Cape Canaveral, Florida, sending a NASA-built weather satellite into orbit.
It’s the GOES-R probe, and it’s being touted as a game changer for weather forecasting.
The spacecraft, which will also be operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is supposed to provide incredible real-time images of developing storm systems, better than any satellite that has preceded it.

GOES-R will keep an eye on Earth’s weather as it orbits 22,000 miles above.

But how does your local weather forecaster know what GOES-R sees?

Learn how GOES-R’s data is used for your local weather forecast in this animated video.

GOES-R even has a lightning mapper on board

To do this, GOES-R — which stands for Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R — will scan Earth’s skies five times faster than the other GOES satellites currently in orbit, with four times the spatial resolution.

“This means we’ll have better quality data at high resolution far more often than we do today,” Joe Pica, director of the Office of Observations at NOAA, said at a NASA press conference.

Such information will allow NOAA scientists to see developing weather systems in unprecedented detail, which will improve our tracking of tornadoes, hurricanes, and wildfires.

GOES-R even has a lightning mapper on board, meant to help forecasters know which storms are more severe than others.

The information the satellite receives will help refine seasonal and weather predictions, improve warning times before storms, as well as help plan the best flight routes for airplanes.

A rendering of GOES-R.

NOAA Satellites 

While GOES-R will tell us more about the climate of Earth, the satellite is also equipped to give us more information about what our Sun is up to as well.

Specifically, the probe will be able to measure the intensity of solar flares, which are responsible for causing “space weather” around Earth.

A flare is often accompanied by something called a coronal mass ejection (CME) — a huge burst of charged particles that shoots out from the Sun.

These CMEs can clash with our planet’s magnetic field, causing geomagnetic storms that mess with our satellites, communications systems, and even our power grid. GOES-R will be able to tell scientists whether a potentially problematic geomagnetic storm is headed our way.

In order to get all of this high quality weather information, GOES-R is headed to a geostationary orbit — a circular path about 22,000 miles above the Earth’s equator.

This is a preferred orbit for many communication satellites, because spacecraft moving along this path follow the rotation of the planet.

That way, they appear to be in the same spot in the sky at all times.

Once it gets to geostationary orbit, GOES-R will be renamed GOES-16 and begin its science operations in about a year.

Links :

•  CNET : New GOES-R satellite features a camera that will provide near real-time high-resolution imagery
• CNN : New satellite will vastly improve your weather forecast
• Forbes : The GOES-R Weather Satellite Launches Saturday: 4 Reasons It's A Game Changer