Wednesday, September 21, 2016

La Niña might not be coming after all

Sea surface temperature patterns of the 2015 El Niño
don’t show any signs of an impending La Niña this year.
Image: NASA

From Gizmodo by Maddie Stone

After promising biblical rains and instead giving California crabs, El Niño passed away quietly last spring. But while early data suggested La Niña would rise to fill the chasm El Niño’s departure had left in our meteorological newsfeeds, NOAA is now starting to think La Niña might not happen at all.
 As early as last winter, climate forecasters told us they were “reasonably confident” La Niña conditions would emerge by late 2016.
As the spring wore on, our confidence in the anti-El Niño climate pattern grew stronger, bolstered by the expansion of a telltale, cold water undercurrent in the equatorial Pacific.
When that cold water mass started to breach the surface last May, ending the reign of El Niño’s hot blob once and for all, climatologists forecasted a 75 percent chance La Niña would be here by the end of the year.

Monthly sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific, with El Nino and La Nina threashold conditions indicated by dashed lines.
Image: Climate.gov

But late last week, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center poured some cold water on our hope that lots and lots of cold water would spread across the Pacific’s midsection, perhaps even making a temporary dent in our global, carbon emissions-fueled heat wave.
Last week, the La Niña watch was officially taken down. Forecasters are now placing their bets on ENSO-neutral conditions (aka, neither El Niño nor La Niña) persisting through the winter.

What changed?
As a blog post by NOAA explains, we’re still measuring cooler-than-average temperatures across the so-called Niño 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific, which are considered typical for La Niña. But that temperature dip hasn’t been accompanied by the La Niña atmospheric response.
By this point, we should be seeing an amping up of the Walker circulation pattern, meaning cool air should be sinking more vigorously in the central and eastern Pacific as warm air rises more vigorously over the western Pacific.

 El Niño and La Niña, the warm and cool phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, disrupt large-scale air movements in the tropics, impacting weather patterns across the world.
Image: Climate.gov

An intensification of Walker circulation would strengthen westerly winds across the tropical Pacific, leading to more rainfall over places like Indonesia.
“So far, there have only been some very weak indications of this intensification,” NOAA writes. And without these atmospheric acrobatics, the cool subsurface waters in the Niño 3.4 region are likely to fizzle out.
La Niña could still happen—it might just be a late bloomer.
But the probability that we’ll be welcoming a La Niña into the world this winter has been downgraded significantly to about 40 percent.
As disappointing as this is, it’s worth remembering that El Niño, too, was a bit of a let-down.
Despite having virtually tied the 1997-98 El Niño in terms of strength, our planetary party guest didn’t end California’s drought, although that may have been an unreasonable expectation. It sorta figures that El Niño’s alter ego would be a no-show.

Links :

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

World leaders meet to protect oceans

Obama Creates Atlantic Ocean's First Marine Monument
Riley D. Champine, NG staff
sources: the pew charitable trusts, esri, delorme,
general bathymetric chart of the oceans, noaa ncei

From Scientific American by Jean Chemnick, ClimateWire

The foreign secretaries from more than 90 countries will converge on the State Department today for the Obama administration’s third and final summit on the health of the world’s oceans.
The Our Ocean summit will focus on the nexus of climate change and ocean issues—a link U.S. Special Envoy for Climate Change Jonathan Pershing told reporters yesterday is not well-understood.
“While climate change is a huge issue, in many ways we should think about it as an exacerbating factor for things that are already problematic,” said Pershing.

The world’s oceans are already threatened by overfishing and pollution from industry and agriculture. But they have also absorbed 40 percent of the man-made carbon dioxide that has entered Earth’s atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution, leading to higher levels of acidification that have damaged coral reefs and shellfish populations.
The seas have also absorbed heat, sometimes causing fisheries to migrate out of their traditional range and away from fishermen that rely on them.
Secretary of State John Kerry launched the summit two years ago to shine a light on what he considers to be the foreign policy and national security priorities related to oceans management.
Last year’s gathering was hosted by Chile.
Kerry will open the conference today, with President Obama giving a keynote address in the morning.

 President Obama visited Turtle Beach on Midway Atoll in the Pacific this month to promote his expansion of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument.
On Thursday, the president declared a marine monument in the Atlantic that is the size of Connecticut.
Credit A.J. Chavar/The New York Times

The two-day summit at State Department headquarters will include more than 100 new commitments by a variety of stakeholders, organizers said.
They include new marine protected zones and a proposed ban on disposable plastic bags put forward by France.
Countries will also discuss ways to incorporate ocean health issues into the commitments they made in last year’s Paris climate agreement.
Undersecretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy and the Environment Catherine Novelli told reporters yesterday that one way to compensate for the stress being placed on marine environments by climate change is to remove other pressures on the system, by scaling back pollution and creating more marine protected areas.

Countries around the world have introduced protected areas in recent years, and “we’re going to have many more that will be announced at this conference,” she said.
“We’re trying to lead by example in doing that.” Obama last month expanded the Papahnaumokukea marine protected area in Hawaii, making it the world’s largest ecologically protected area.
And yesterday, the White House announced the designation of another marine national monument off the coast of Cape Cod in Massachusetts that will protect an additional 4,913 square miles.
It will preclude activities like commercial fishing and deep-sea mining.
A small number of lobstermen and red crab fishermen operate in the area, though the White House claimed it had not included the most active areas in the monument.
Republicans say the administration has prioritized environmental aims over economic development. House Natural Resources Chairman Rob Bishop (R-Utah) described the Hawaii designation as “a sweeping expansion” in an op-ed in The Hill yesterday.

OCEANS ARE ‘IN TROUBLE’

In addition to protecting ocean ecosystems, these sanctuaries boost the role oceans can play in regulating the climate by contributing to the health of marine vegetation that sequesters carbon, Novelli said. Mangrove forests do more to sequester carbon than rainforests.
“We know that the ocean is in trouble, but we also know that the ocean is resilient,” she said.
“And if we do the right thing, it can come back.”
International climate leaders and technical experts met yesterday at National Geographic’s headquarters to begin work on recommendations for how countries can integrate ocean concerns into their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement.
A handful of countries already refer to ocean issues in their submissions, but most don’t.
Climate advocates hope the summit can help persuade countries to increase the ambition of their commitments early.

The Moroccan presidency of the next round of climate talks in Marrakech has designated an Oceans Day during the November conference.
The recommendations will be introduced then.
French Ambassador Laurence Tubiana and Moroccan Ambassador Hakima El Haite, who together lead the Global Climate Action Agenda heading into this year’s talks, said they hope that businesses, cities and other non-state actors will make voluntary commitments to reduce the impact of climate change on the seas.
Tubiana said yesterday that Marrakech would “put the ocean in the right place in the agenda.”
El Haite said oceans should be “put in the heart of the development and human rights agenda” of Paris, including both mitigation and adaptation plans.
“Including oceans in NDCs would be a clear political signal and commitment and would encourage more programs and initiatives from the private sector, the financial community and all the non-state actors,” she said.

In addition to increased acidification and changing ecosystems, climate change is projected to contribute as much as 4 feet to sea-level rise by the end of the century.
Solutions to both climate change and ocean ecosystem degradation include protection of mangrove forests and other so-called “blue sinks” that sequester carbon, better monitoring and investments in research, and the speedy implementation of Paris.
The global climate deal takes effect when 55 countries totaling 55 percent of the world’s emissions join.
The current tally is 27 countries totaling 40 percent of emissions.
But more than 30 additional countries are expected to become parties next week at a Sept. 21 summit at U.N. headquarters in New York City.

WARMING REDUCES ACCESS TO PROTEIN IN AFRICA

A global oceans summit that draws foreign ministers rather than environmental secretaries is part of Kerry’s legacy at State.
In remarks at the first conference in 2014, Kerry recounted how, as a child growing up in Massachusetts, “I first dipped my toes into the mud off Woods Hole Oceanographic in that area of Buzzards Bay and the Cape and was introduced to clamming and to fishing and all of those great joys of the ocean.”
“I have had this enormous love and respect for what the ocean means to us,” he said then.
He continued to focus on ocean issues as a member of the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee and chairman of its Oceans, Atmosphere, Fisheries and Coast Guard Subcommittee.
Pershing said on yesterday’s call that during his recent trip to Senegal, he was told that fisheries supplying 90 percent of that country’s protein are migrating out of reach of its fishermen as the ocean warms.
“And if you start to think about that magnified by the extent of those coastal nations, which, in many poor countries, rely on their fishing capacity to provide a substantial share of their people’s food supply, you get one window into the extent of the damages,” he said.
Tubiana, who was one of the architects of last year’s climate deal, pointed to the summit as another part of Obama’s legacy.
“I think all of us will have a big debt to President Obama and his legacy, on his capacity to really have focused the global agenda to these key issues and make the link,” she said.
“I think he’s using his last days and even the last minute to do that.
“Whatever the result of your election is, you will have provided an enormous advance in the global agenda,” she said.

Europe will host next year’s summit, and countries in other regions are lined up to do so in coming years—so its continued existence does not depend on who wins the U.S. presidential election.
But if Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump wins the election, it is likely he’ll be less invested in climate issues, both domestically and internationally.
But Pershing said on the call that international momentum would continue on climate change regardless of the outcome.
Escalating damage from climate change and cheaper low-carbon solutions will continue to drive progress, he said.
“And it’s independent, quite frankly, of whether we are able in the next administration to take a president who likes it or doesn’t like it,” he said, adding, “And I’m not seeing any backing down from that, independent of what happens here in the United States.”

Links :

Monday, September 19, 2016

Denmark DGA NEW layer in the GeoGarage platform

197 nautical charts added
see : News

but no more map monsters on the GeoGarage modern maps
see this Northern Europe sheet of Atlas by Antoine Lafréry (1575)

Antoine Lafréry, 1575 Relief shown pictorially.
Some maps entirely in Italian, some maps entirely in Latin.
Title derived by cataloger from title page of bound Lafréry atlas.
Seventeen loose sheets that appear in atlases sold by Antoine Lafréry. - Library of Congress

Global Fishing Watch lets you track 35000 fishing boats in real time


From Oceana

Oceana, SkyTruth and Google today launched the public Beta of Global Fishing Watch, a new online technology platform that allows anyone in the world free access to monitor and track the activities of the world’s largest commercial fishing vessels in near real-time.
By providing the first free global view of commercial fishing*, Global Fishing Watch delivers a powerful and unprecedented tool that can help to rebuild fish stocks and protect our oceans, which are threatened by global overfishing, illegal fishing and habitat destruction.
The announcement was made in conjunction with the Our Ocean Conference in Washington, D.C., an international gathering of ocean leaders hosted by Secretary of State John Kerry. The product of a partnership between Oceana, SkyTruth and Google, Global Fishing Watch is an intuitive and free interactive online tool that shows the apparent fishing activity of 35,000 (and counting) commercial fishing vessels operating throughout the world.



The platform is regularly updated to show vessel tracks and fishing activity from January 1, 2012 through three days prior to present time.
By sharing this critical information publically for the first time, Global Fishing Watch will have immeasurable and wide-ranging positive impacts on ocean health.
From allowing fishery managers to better understand and manage fishing activity in their waters to aiding enforcement agencies in deterring illegal fishing, Global Fishing Watch is a powerful tool to help restore our oceans. “Global Fishing Watch will revolutionize the way the world views commercial fishing,” said Jacqueline Savitz, Vice President for the United States and Global Fishing Watch at Oceana.
“Now, in the hands of everyone, this free tool can be used by governments, journalists, citizens, researchers and the seafood industry.
It will allow governments to track suspicious vessels, enforce rules and reduce seafood fraud.
Journalists and everyday citizens will be able to identify behavior that may be related to illegal fishing or overfishing.
Global Fishing Watch is a powerful tool in the fight against illegal fishing and has tremendous potential to preserve and protect our world’s delicate marine ecosystem for generations to come.” Global Fishing Watch uses public broadcast data from the Automatic Identification System (AIS), collected by satellite and terrestrial receivers, to show the movement of vessels over time.
Every day, more than 20 million data points are added to AIS.

Visualization of 2014 Indonesian Vessel Monitoring System (VMS) data in the Global Fishing Watch platform, as featured in the Jakarta Globe

Global Fishing Watch uses this information to track vessel movement and classify it as “fishing” or “non-fishing” activity.
 "Working with Oceana and Google has enabled us to take a good idea and build it into something that will improve the lives of hundreds of millions of people around the planet,” said John Amos, President and Founder of SkyTruth.
“Global Fishing Watch will catalyze the science, policy-making and public pressure necessary to make our oceans sustainable."
Global Fishing Watch is collaborating with governments, private industry, and scientific and international agencies to enable additional transparency and sustainability policies.
Indonesia, a leader in fisheries reform and management, has committed to making all of their registered fishing vessels with trackers public to the world through the platform because they believe so strongly in transparency.
Trace Register, the leading traceability solution provider for the global seafood industry, is working with Global Fishing Watch to enable its customers to verify that their seafood was legally and responsibly produced. Armed with new global datasets and access to massive cloud computing resources, leading scientific institutions around the world are collaborating in the Global Fishing Watch Research Program to model economic, environmental, policy and climate change implications on fisheries.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations is exploring new methodologies to more accurately report global vessel registries and fishery statistics and will be proposing transparency tools to support States in improving their monitoring, control and surveillance of fishing activities.
"While many of the environmental trends in the ocean can be sobering, the combination of cloud computing, machine learning, and massive data is enabling new tools to visualize, understand and potentially reverse these trends,” said Brian Sullivan, Sr. Program Manager at Google Ocean & Earth Outreach.
“We are excited to contribute a Google-scale approach toward ocean sustainability and public awareness."

Links :

Sunday, September 18, 2016

Snøhvit CO2 Solution

Interested in learning more about the first offshore development in the Barents Sea?
Check out this video about Snøhvit, the first major development
without surface installations. 

 Snøhvit on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (Kertverket chart)
Snøhvit (English: Snow White) is the name of a natural gas field in the Norwegian Sea,
situated 140 kilometres (87 mi) northwest of Hammerfest, Norway.