Technology has advanced so much since 'Finding Nemo,'
Pixar had to rebuild the main characters from scratch.
But the company was also able to create characters and effects that weren't possible before.
(see CNET article)
Saturday, June 25, 2016
Friday, June 24, 2016
Sirte and the future of ISIS In Libya : what's the impact in the maritime domain
From Dryad Maritime
On 11 June 2016, Libyan militia aligned to the UN-backed unity government took control of much of the city of Sirte after fierce fighting with Islamic State militants.
As forces advance into a city which has been held by ISIS for two years, we look at the impact losing Sirte will have on the terror group’s maritime operations on the Libyan coast.
Libya coast with the GeoGarage platform (NGA chart)
ISIS and Sirte
When ISIS took control of Sirte in spring 2015 it quickly became its most important base of operations outside of Iraq and Syria.
The city soon became the home to ISIS leadership, who claimed it marked a key success for its territorial caliphate in North Africa.
However, as the anti-Islamic State coalition advances towards ISIS capitals in Iraq and Syria (Mosul and Raqqa), the importance of maintaining Sirte will become less critical for ISIS.
It is likely that the Islamist group will withdraw from Sirte when they lose control – a situation similar to when ISIS fought for its first Libyan stronghold, Derna, before relinquishing it in June 2015 to preserve Sirte.
Whilst losing Sirte will be a significant blow to ISIS, it has been laying the groundwork to withdraw from the city and regroup elsewhere in Libya for months.
Media reports suggest that ISIS have already sent convoys from Sirte towards the south-west region of Fezzan.
Changing Tactics
With the establishment of a new operating base in the Fezzan region the priority for ISIS, it is likely to then evaluate its choices for further operation in order to re-establish the caliphate that it desires.
Operationally, the terror group is likely to launch attacks aimed at undermining the new Tripoli based Government of National Accord (GNA) and will do so in two ways: launching raids on oil infrastructures to hurt Libya’s economy, whilst attacking urban areas to disrupt public confidence in the new GNA government.
Tripoli harbour with the GeoGarage platform (NGA chart)
Cities with a high population density such as the sea port cities of Tripoli or Misurata are possible targets.
Gulf of Aden with the GeoGarage platform (UKHO chart)
Al Mukala harbour (Yemen) with the GeoGarage platform (NGA chart)
With a withdrawal expected to an area of south-west Libya, ISIS will be given access to expand its operation westwards and set conditions for a caliphate in Tunisia or Algeria.
ISIS’s primary effort would be a cross-border insurgency aimed at seizing territory in Tunisia, similar to its March 2016 attack on Ben Guerdane, hoping to capitalise on local sympathies.
Libyan Peace
The removal of ISIS from Sirte is a positive sign.
However, it would be foolhardy to view this as a step towards Libyan peace or unity.
Instead, it is likely that the Libya National Army (LNA) will resume its hostile rhetoric towards the Government of National Accord (GNA), of whose legitimacy it does not acknowledge, whilst militias that support the GNA are likely to reopen control for Sirte over unresolved divisions.
Ending ISIS’s hold on Sirte was necessary, but the city’s fall in the absence of a political strategy could prove a catalyst for further conflict.
The lack of a political resolution will continue to drive instability in Libya, as its competing factions continue to prioritise their own interests over countering the ISIS threat.
Sirte harbour with the GeoGarage platform (NGA chart)
Impact on Maritime Operations
Realising that oil would be difficult to sell on the black market from its position in Libya, ISIS quickly decided to attack and disrupt oil fields in the country instead of capturing them as a source of revenue, as they had done in Syria and Iraq.
This methodology has been evident in the raids on the coastal oil facilities of Zuetina, Ras Lanuf and As Sidr throughout January 2016.
Ra's Lanuf with the GeoGarage platform (NGA chart)
As Sidr and Ras Lanuf, ISIS is likely to retain active cells throughout the country and will continue to try and undermine oil production.
Zueitina with the GeoGarage platform (NGA chart)
The loss of Sirte will further limit their freedom of manoeuvre on the coast, which reduces their opportunity to conduct offshore attacks.
However, Dryad continues to consider that an attack close to shore on a ship in, or approaching, a Libyan port remains a possibility.
In summary, the removal of ISIS from Sirte is likely to decrease the maritime threat in the region as the terror group moves its base from the coastal area inland.
Nevertheless, there remains a high threat, with Jihadi sympathies widespread throughout Libya and a significant risk ashore in port cities where ISIS is likely to retain cells.
Thursday, June 23, 2016
New methods are improving ocean and climate measurements
From The Guardian by John Abraham
Improvements to ocean temperature measurements are making good measurements great
I have often said that global warming is really ocean warming.
As humans add more heat-trapping gases to the atmosphere, it causes the Earth to gain energy. Almost all of that energy ends up in the oceans.
So, if you want to know how fast the Earth is warming, you have to measure how fast the oceans are heating up.
Sounds easy enough at first, but when we recognize that the oceans are vast (and deep) we can appreciate the difficulties.
How can we get enough measurements, at enough locations, and enough depths, to measure the oceans’ temperatures?
Not only that, but since climate change is a long-term trend, it means we have to measure ocean temperature changes over many years and decades.
We really want to know how fast the oceans’ temperatures are changing over long durations.
But that isn’t all.
Throughout the years, we have made changes to the measurement methods.
From old canvas buckets that were dipped into waters which were then measured, to insulated buckets, to temperature probes on the hulls of ships, devices that would be dropped into deep ocean waters, and now the ARGO fleet, which is approximately 3,000 autonomous devices that are more-or-less equally distributed across the oceans.
Each of these devices measures temperatures a little differently; they have biases.
As you change from one set of instruments to another, you might see a cooling or warming effect related to the change in instruments, not because the water temperatures are changing.
The seeming intractability of this problem is why I began studying it a few years ago.
I have worked with colleagues to answer a very specific equation related to one of the most commonly employed ocean measurement devices, the eXpendable BathyThermograph (or XBT for short).
For many years, these devices formed the backbone of ocean temperature measurements.
My colleagues and I want to ensure measurements from XBTs are as accurate as possible.
These devices are used by navies to measure the depth of the thermocline.
While that was their original mission, climate scientists have adopted the devices for determining long-term ocean temperature changes.
The problem is that the devices are relatively simple; they are freely dropped into ocean waters.
As they descend, like a spinning torpedo, they unwind a wire connected to a computer system on-board the ship.
A sensor in the probe sends temperature information to the computer system and a recording is made.
When the device expends its wire, the wire breaks and the device continues to fall until it impacts the ocean floor.
It’s important for scientists to know the depth of each temperature measurement that the probe makes. The problem is, the probe does not detect its depth.
Rather, its depth is estimated by knowing how fast the probe falls in water.
The probe weight is balanced by drag forced between the water and the device.
If the knowledge of probe speed is not known accurately, it means a scientist may think the probe is at one depth when in fact, it’s at a different depth.
This subtle uncertainty can lead to large uncertainties in the overall ocean heat content.
Extensive experiments have shown that our expectations of probe speed is suitable in areas where the ocean water is warm.
But, what about Arctic regions?
There, where water is cold, the water has a higher viscosity (and consequently drag force).
We wanted to know whether we could correct that archive of ocean temperature measurements to account for measurements made in cold waters.
To solve this problem, I teamed up with world-class scientists Dr. Lijing Cheng and Rebecca Cowley.
Lijing Cheng is a rapidly rising international scientist from the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
He is currently producing some of the best research on the Earth’s energy imbalance.
Rebecca Cowley is a data expert from CSIRO in Australia.
Her group is recognized as among the best in ocean heat content measurements and data quality.
The article was just published by the American Society of Meteorology and can be found here.
Our data shows that as you move from warm waters to cold waters, probe descent speed changes by approximately 2%.
We provided a simple way that oceanographers could account for this effect in their data, and we then compared our proposed correction to high-quality temperature data obtained from side-by-side temperature experiments with two different instruments.
We showed that our method reduces temperature error and increases our understanding of ocean warming.
I asked Rebecca Cowley for her perspective on this study and she said,
Sometimes, you spend hours, days, and weeks to create small improvements in data.
But at the end of the day, these small improvements add up.
Being able to say we made things better is one of the reasons we got into science in the first place.
As humans add more heat-trapping gases to the atmosphere, it causes the Earth to gain energy. Almost all of that energy ends up in the oceans.
So, if you want to know how fast the Earth is warming, you have to measure how fast the oceans are heating up.
Sounds easy enough at first, but when we recognize that the oceans are vast (and deep) we can appreciate the difficulties.
How can we get enough measurements, at enough locations, and enough depths, to measure the oceans’ temperatures?
Not only that, but since climate change is a long-term trend, it means we have to measure ocean temperature changes over many years and decades.
We really want to know how fast the oceans’ temperatures are changing over long durations.
But that isn’t all.
Throughout the years, we have made changes to the measurement methods.
From old canvas buckets that were dipped into waters which were then measured, to insulated buckets, to temperature probes on the hulls of ships, devices that would be dropped into deep ocean waters, and now the ARGO fleet, which is approximately 3,000 autonomous devices that are more-or-less equally distributed across the oceans.
Each of these devices measures temperatures a little differently; they have biases.
As you change from one set of instruments to another, you might see a cooling or warming effect related to the change in instruments, not because the water temperatures are changing.
The seeming intractability of this problem is why I began studying it a few years ago.
I have worked with colleagues to answer a very specific equation related to one of the most commonly employed ocean measurement devices, the eXpendable BathyThermograph (or XBT for short).
For many years, these devices formed the backbone of ocean temperature measurements.
My colleagues and I want to ensure measurements from XBTs are as accurate as possible.
UCI Marine Scientist Jim Nickels takes a second to show us some "Old School Science" equipment, -a Bathythermograph, and explain it's purpose.
These devices are used by navies to measure the depth of the thermocline.
While that was their original mission, climate scientists have adopted the devices for determining long-term ocean temperature changes.
The problem is that the devices are relatively simple; they are freely dropped into ocean waters.
As they descend, like a spinning torpedo, they unwind a wire connected to a computer system on-board the ship.
A sensor in the probe sends temperature information to the computer system and a recording is made.
When the device expends its wire, the wire breaks and the device continues to fall until it impacts the ocean floor.
It’s important for scientists to know the depth of each temperature measurement that the probe makes. The problem is, the probe does not detect its depth.
Rather, its depth is estimated by knowing how fast the probe falls in water.
The probe weight is balanced by drag forced between the water and the device.
If the knowledge of probe speed is not known accurately, it means a scientist may think the probe is at one depth when in fact, it’s at a different depth.
This subtle uncertainty can lead to large uncertainties in the overall ocean heat content.
Extensive experiments have shown that our expectations of probe speed is suitable in areas where the ocean water is warm.
But, what about Arctic regions?
There, where water is cold, the water has a higher viscosity (and consequently drag force).
We wanted to know whether we could correct that archive of ocean temperature measurements to account for measurements made in cold waters.
To solve this problem, I teamed up with world-class scientists Dr. Lijing Cheng and Rebecca Cowley.
Lijing Cheng is a rapidly rising international scientist from the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
He is currently producing some of the best research on the Earth’s energy imbalance.
Rebecca Cowley is a data expert from CSIRO in Australia.
Her group is recognized as among the best in ocean heat content measurements and data quality.
Map of XBT lines
An eXpendable BathyThermograph (XBT) is a temperature probe that is dropped into the ocean from a ship, either by hand or using using an automatic launching system.
Temperatures are recorded as the probe drops at a known rate through about the upper kilometer of the ocean.
By making measurements at the same location at regular intervals, it is possible to observe the evolution of the thermal structure of the upper ocean.
NOAA employs two sampling modes for deployment of XBT probes, each serving a different scientific purpose: Frequently Repeated (FR) and High Density (HD).
NOAA employs two sampling modes for deployment of XBT probes, each serving a different scientific purpose: Frequently Repeated (FR) and High Density (HD).
courtesy of NOAA
The article was just published by the American Society of Meteorology and can be found here.
Our data shows that as you move from warm waters to cold waters, probe descent speed changes by approximately 2%.
We provided a simple way that oceanographers could account for this effect in their data, and we then compared our proposed correction to high-quality temperature data obtained from side-by-side temperature experiments with two different instruments.
We showed that our method reduces temperature error and increases our understanding of ocean warming.
I asked Rebecca Cowley for her perspective on this study and she said,
Sometimes science isn’t sexy.
We can see the effects of climate change in our oceans. To do this, we measure changes in temperature in our oceans over decadal time scales. Measuring the temperature of ocean water is not a new thing, it has been done for hundreds of years, and over time, measurement techniques have changed. In modern times, the XBT has been used extensively to measure ocean temperature and is only one of many methods. XBT data is special because it comprises ~50% of historical data between 1967 and 2001, a huge resource for oceanographers and for estimates of decadal changes in ocean temperature.
Small biases in the historical XBT data have been identified and various bias corrections have been developed which greatly improve the XBT data for climate change estimates. This work focusses on a purely physical method to estimate a fall rate for the XBT, which is unusual in the field of bias correction estimates. By looking at the physical shape of the XBT probe the fall rate is modelled. Other bias correction studies have looked at comparisons between XBTs and other instruments.
When we apply fall rate bias corrections, we improve the historical XBT dataset (a massive resource), reduce the bias errors and give estimates of ocean warming that are more comparable to the results we see with other instrumentation. In turn, the XBT data becomes very useful as it fills the gaps in time where we have very few other instruments collecting ocean temperature data. The XBT data also becomes useful for global ocean models – the data is included in the models and it improves their accuracy. Improving the accuracy of our ocean models leads to better forward estimates of future climate change impacts.
Sometimes, you spend hours, days, and weeks to create small improvements in data.
But at the end of the day, these small improvements add up.
Being able to say we made things better is one of the reasons we got into science in the first place.
Wednesday, June 22, 2016
Elegy for the Arctic : world renowned pianist Ludovico Einaudi plays historic concert on Arctic Ocean
Through his music, acclaimed Italian composer and pianist Ludovico Einaudi has added his voice to those of eight million people from across the world demanding protection for the Arctic.
Einaudi performed one of his own compositions on a floating platform in the middle of the Ocean, against the backdrop of the Wahlenbergbreen glacier (in Svalbard, Norway).
From Greenpeace
Italian pianist and composer, Ludovico Einaudi, today performed one of his own compositions, Elegy for the Arctic, on a floating platform in the Arctic Ocean, against the backdrop of the Wahlenbergbreen glacier (in Svalbard, Norway).
Through his music Einaud has added his voice to those of eight million people from across the world demanding protection for the Arctic.
Speaking onboard the Arctic Sunrise, Einaudi said:
“Being here has been a great experience. I could see the purity and fragility of this area with my own eyes and interpret a song I wrote to be played upon the best stage in the world. It is important that we understand the importance of the Arctic, stop the process of destruction and protect it."
The musician, known for his composition for the film, “Black Swan” and the television serial, “Doctor Zhivago”, travelled onboard the Greenpeace ship Arctic Sunrise on the eve of the week-long meeting of the OSPAR Commission, which could secure the first protected area in Arctic international waters.
The massive early retreat of sea ice due to the effects of climate change allowed the construction of a 2.6 x 10 metre artificial iceberg, made from more than 300 triangles of wood attached together and weighing a total of nearly two tonnes.
A grand piano was then placed on top of the platform.
Svalbard (Norwegian chart) (with the GeoGarage)
Yoldiabukta is a bay in Nordfjorden at Spitsbergen, Svalbard.
It has a width of about five kilometers and is located between the northern side of Bohemanflya and Muslingodden.
The 26 kilometer long glacier Wahlenbergbreen debouches into Yoldiabukta.
zoom on Wahlenbergbreen glacier in Oscar II land at Spitsbergen, Svalbard
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