Tuesday, May 17, 2016

What makes an island ? Land reclamation and the South China Sea arbitration


From AMTI CSIS by Christopher Mirasola 

We have all heard about land reclamation by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the South China Sea, particularly the southeastern region known as the Spratly Group.
But much less is being said about what the Permanent Court of Arbitration just finished considering for the past week: are artificial islands really islands?
According to the Philippines, the answer is straightforward: No.
In its initial statement of claim, the Philippines asked the Court to invalidate China’s Nine-Dash Line (click here for a good overview of that issue) and determine that eight PRC-controlled maritime features are not islands.
Of these eight features, seven are home to ongoing PRC land reclamation.
The Philippines has a strong case for why the PRC’s artificial islands should not be considered real islands.
The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and past decisions by international tribunals suggest that land reclamation will not affect the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s decision because: (1) artificial islands don’t have the legal significance afforded natural islands, and;
(2) land reclamation occurred after the so-called “critical date” when the China-Philippines dispute “crystallized” in international legal terms.

Why This Matters

 Recent land reclamation has dramatically transformed seven disputed maritime features in the Spratly Islands.
These include Mischief, Gaven, Subi, Johnson, Cuarteron, Fiery Cross, and Hughes (McKennan) Reefs.
For example, in 1995, Subi Reef was completely submerged at high tide.
Today, there are 3.9 million square meters of reclaimed land above water at high tide on Subi Reef, and it is home to a pair of wooden barracks, communications array, and helipad.
There are similarly stark changes at each of the other reefs.
Since UNCLOS affords differing maritime based on the geographic characteristics of a given landmass, at first blush these changes could have big implications for both China and the Philippines.
In particular, the Spratlys dispute involves three types of territorial objects at sea:
  1. Low-tide elevation: A landmass above water only at low tide. Outside an existing territorial sea it is not entitled to a separate maritime zone.
  2. Rock: A landmass permanently above water but unable to sustain human habitation or economic life on its own. It is entitled to a territorial sea and contiguous zone, but not an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) or continental shelf rights.
  3. Island: A landmass permanently above water that can sustain human habitation or economic life on its own. It is entitled to a territorial sea, contiguous zone, EEZ, and continental shelf rights.


Before land reclamation, Johnson, Cuarteron, and Fiery Cross Reefs were rocks and the other reefs were, at most, low-tide elevations.
After land reclamation, all six features would be considered rocks, if not islands.
So the key question becomes: do we define the reefs’ legal character by looking at the facts from before or after land reclamation?

Artificial Islands Do Not Generate Maritime Entitlements

According to UNCLOS, an island is: “a naturally formed area of land, surrounded by water, which is above water at high tide.”
For the Philippines to make its case, it must show that reclaimed land should not be considered “a naturally formed area of land.”
You wouldn’t have to break the English language to find some ambiguity in the UNCLOS definition of an island. It could mean islands formed by natural processes or islands composed of naturally occurring objects.[1] If the second definition is correct, reclaimed land would be entitled to all the maritime zones of an island.
But this expansive interpretation just does not hold water.
The Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties says that we must give treaty provisions their “ordinary meaning” while remaining mindful of their context, purpose and, if necessary, negotiating history.
Let’s start with ordinary meaning.
The New Oxford American Dictionary’s first entry for the verb ‘form’ defines it as to “bring together parts or combine to create (something).” So UNCLOS’ requirement that an island be naturally formed should mean that an island be created naturally.
It would not make sense to interpret “naturally formed” as a noun.
We can see this is true by looking at other UNCLOS provisions.
For example, Article 60 says that countries may “establish reasonable safety zones around … artificial islands” and that “[a]rtificial islands, installations and structures do not possess the status of islands.”
UNCLOS does not define “artificial island” explicitly, but a definition is suggested by the fact that Article 60 differentiates artificial islands, installations, and structures.
Installations and structures ordinarily include objects built of non-natural materials (like concrete and steel in an oil rig).
By using “artificial islands” as a separate term, UNCLOS states that this is a different type of landmass, one that is made of natural objects (i.e. sand) and not man-made objects (i.e. steel).
If artificial islands are made of natural objects, it would not make sense for UNCLOS to define islands as a landmass also made of natural objects.
The only solution, therefore, is for “naturally formed” to indicate the process by which an island is created.
This interpretation is confirmed by the Convention’s negotiating history.
Although there were initially some scholars who thought artificially formed islands should be treated like natural islands, by 1958 they had largely lost the debate.[2]
In fact, the United States specifically added “naturally formed” before “area of land” during negotiations culminating in the UNCLOS text to eliminate most maritime entitlements for artificial islands.[3]
Since then, scholars have agreed that artificially formed islands should not be granted maritime entitlements.[4]

China claims Hawaii-Micronesia : new 251 dash map

International Tribunals Do Not Consider Construction After the Critical Date 

It is possible, however, that the tribunal will not even have to consider this interpretive question because PRC land reclamation occurred after what is called the “critical date.”
The critical date is the time when “the dispute crystallized”[5] between two parties (here, the PRC and Philippines).
In a dispute between Nicaragua and Colombia regarding Caribbean islands, for example, the critical date was when the two countries exchanged diplomatic notes explicitly claiming sovereignty over the islands after Nicaragua issued oil contracts in the surrounding waters.
A tribunal will generally only consider the facts of a dispute as they existed prior to this date.[6]
It is not clear if the Tribunal will fix a critical date in the Spratlys dispute, or what it will be if it does so.
It may decline to indicate a date because the Philippines is not arguing for territorial sovereignty over these reefs.
But assuming that arbitrators do use the critical date, there are three options: 1947 (when the Nationalist government of China first endorsed the Nine-Dashed Line) sometime in the 1970s (when the PRC alleges that the Philippines first occupied maritime features in the region) or April 14, 2011 (when the PRC responded to a diplomatic note from the Philippines protesting the Nine-Dash Line).
Given the Nicaragua/Colombia dispute this third option seems most likely, but much could be disputed about the merits of each date.
Regardless, it is clear that all three options occurred well before PRC land reclamation began approximately 18 months ago.
The current geographic characteristics of these reefs, therefore, simply would not matter.
It is important to note that the Tribunal has not released the Philippines’ legal briefs, so we cannot be certain what topics have been addressed.
But since more than 3000 pages of briefing materials have been submitted, it is safe to assume that the Philippines has addressed all plausible arguments (both UNCLOS interpretation the critical date).

 Final Thoughts

The China-Philippines arbitration implicates a region in which nearly all neighboring states have sovereign claims.
But while there are a number of difficult legal and strategic issues for the Permanent Court of Arbitration to consider, the legal character of PRC-controlled reefs is not one of them.
Here, if anywhere, a straightforward application of UNCLOS should prevail.
No amount of land reclamation can change a reef into an island, nor entitle them to an island’s maritime zones.

[1] Alfred Soons, Artificial Islands and Installations in International Law, 22 Occasional Paper Series Law of the Sea Institute 17—18 (1974) (Showing scholars have argued in favor of this second position).
[2] Hiran W. Jayewardene, The Regime of Islands in International Law 9 (1990)
[3] Id.
[4] N. Papdakis, The International Legal Regime of Artificial Islands 96–97 (1977); Hiran W. Jayewardene, The Regime of Islands in International Law 9 (1990).
[5] Territorial and Maritime Dispute (Nicaragua v. Colombia), Judgment, I.C.J. Reports 2012 p. 624, 652.
[6] Yehuda Blum, Historic Titles in International Law 219 (1965).

Links :

Monday, May 16, 2016

The Gunhilde Maersk : watch a stunning time lapse of a container ship gliding around the world


The video is a glimpse of the ethereal world inhabited by these ocean behemoths.

From Atlas Obscura by

The seemingly mundane life of the behemoth container ship is far more beautiful than one might think.
The above time lapse video follows one such ship on a day's journey as it navigates through sea and port.
In this otherworldly life on the sea, the skies are deceptive: what looks like a sunrise sparkling in the distance turns out to be the bright lights of a port that the ship pulls into.
Even the skies and sea do not look of this earth, and seem to belong to some other planet in a strange galaxy.
Some particularly wondrous moments that the container ship bears witness to on this journey are lightning strikes, a sea "highway" made of red and green buoys, and a game of container Tetris.

Saturday, May 14, 2016

StratoBus: half drone, halfway between a drone and a satellite

StratoBus is a stationary stratospheric airship, offering autonomous operation and suited to multiple missions.
It measures 100 meters long with a maximum diameter of 33 meters (328 x 108 ft), and weighs less than 5 metric tons.
Designed to operate at an altitude of 20 kilometers (about 66,000 ft), above the jet stream and air traffic, StratoBus can carry a payload of up to 250 kg (550 lb), with 5 kilowatts of onboard power.
StratoBus doesn’t need a launch vehicle to reach “orbit”. 
It takes just four hours to reach the stratosphere, and about the same to come back down.
Its operating economics make it a real “low-cost” product, extremely competitive for regional civil or military applications, including telecommunications, navigation, observation (especially surveillance), etc.
The program is led by Thales Alenia Space as prime contractor.

Friday, May 13, 2016

Unraveling spiral: the most compelling global warming visualization ever made


From The Washington Post by

Over the years, scientists have attempted to visually communicate the Earth’s warming in many ways.  They’ve developed an array of maps, charts, and animations that present an unmistakable picture of a warming world.
But I’ve seen no visual as striking and effective as the infographic posted to Twitter Monday by climate scientist Ed Hawkins.

Hawkins illustrates the warming in a series of circles, each one portraying a year in the historical climate record spanning 1850 and the present.
As time passes and the planet warms, the circles expand outward.
Together the circles are part of one unwinding spiral, which serves as a fitting metaphor for the long-term course of the Earth’s temperature.
Individually, the circles behave somewhat erratically.
At times, especially early in the record, the circles contract, conveying periods of cooling.
There are also periods when the circles are packed close together, signifying little temperature change.
But as time wears on, especially over the past few decades, you see more outward leaps, when climate warming is speeding up.
Of particular interest is the most recent burst coincident with the temperature increase of 2016. It is clearly warmer than anything preceding it by some distance and approaching 1.5 degrees Celsius above the baseline average.
The graphic plainly illustrates how unusual this year is in a long-term context, and it’s not difficult to see why climate scientists believe it is nearly certain to be the warmest year on record.
Hawkins also created a more conventional chart, shown below, which is also extremely effective at showing how anomalous 2016 is.



But the motion of the spiral animation makes it stand out among climate warming visualizations.
It unambiguously shows the planet’s relentless march toward higher temperatures, but without losing the interesting complexity seen in the year-to-year movements.
“The animated spiral presents global temperature change in a visually appealing and straightforward way,” Hawkins wrote on his blog, the Climate Lab Book.
“The pace of change is immediately obvious, especially over the past few decades.”
The animation uses global temperature data from the Hadley Centre of the United Kingdom’s Met Office.
Below are some other visuals which, in my view, also do a good job illustrating global warming:


This visualization illustrates Earth’s long-term warming trend, showing temperature changes from 1880 to 2015 as a rolling five-year average.
Orange colors represent temperatures that are warmer than the 1951-80 baseline average, and blues represent temperatures cooler than the baseline.

 Produced by NASA, the chart illustrates how temperatures have compared to “normal” (or the 1951-1980 average) from 1880 to present, from pole to pole (-90 latitude to 90 latitude).

Global warming in one bar graph