GeoGarage blog

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

It’s extremely rare for large ships like El Faro to disappear

The US Coast Guard says that the missing cargo ship El Faro sank

after sailing into the path of Hurricane Joaquin in the Bahamas.

From TheAtlantic

The Coast Guard believes the missing cargo ship sank in the Atlantic Ocean with 33 people aboard.

El Faro—a 790-foot cargo ship whose name means “lighthouse”—has apparently sunk in the Atlantic Ocean, the U.S. Coast Guard believes.

This animation of images captured from September 29 to October 1 from NOAA's GOES-East satellite shows Hurricane Joaquin become a major hurricane in the Bahamas.

Credit: NASA/NOAA GOES Project

Rescuers have been searching for the container ship, which was in the path of Hurricane Joaquin, since the crew last made contact Thursday morning, saying El Faro was listing but the situation was manageable.

The vessel was carrying 33 people—28 Americans and five Poles—and while searchers have found debris they believe came from the ship, they haven’t found the vessel itself or any survivors. One body has been found.

El Faro's ill-fated journey (Reuters)

Last position received 24.2747° / -74.94522°

Bahamas chart on the GeoGarage platform (WLP nautical map)

While nautical disasters remain a fact of life—everything from missing sailboats to deadly catastrophes like the Costa Concordia’s sinking or recent ferry disasters in Asia—it is exceptionally rare for a large ship like El Faro to disappear.

How rare? An analysis of vessels greater than 100 gross tons by the insurance giant Allianz found that in the past 10 years, from 2005 to 2014, only six ships were reported as “missing/overdue”—or, in other words, lost. Three were in 2005.

There were none reported in 2011, 2012, 2013, or 2014.

This isn’t to say that ships don’t sink.

In 2014, 49 ships “foundered,” which includes sinking or submerging—the largest category of ship losses.

But often those are cases where ships sink with some warning, and most or all of the crew can be rescued.

The second-largest category is ships that ran aground.

(An excellent 2008 Wired story goes inside the world of ship-salvage crews that try to right these vessels.)

It’s not an illusion that shipping seems safer these days.

The number of total losses has decreased over the last decade.

And no ship lost in 2014 in any method—foundered, wrecked, or otherwise—was as large as El Faro, which was built in 1975 and was 790 feet long with a gross tonnage of 31,515.

The biggest cargo ship lost last year was 12,630 gross tons, and while eight of 20 crew members died, that was in a collision—not a disappearance.

The Caribbean, where El Faro is missing, also sees comparatively few losses versus the South China Sea, the Mediterranean, or the British Isles.

It’s far too early to know what went wrong with El Faro. It’s not uncommon for cargo ships to lose containers in heavy seas, but sinking is.
Allianz lists several risk factors for ships: overreliance on electronic navigation; understaffed or undertrained crews; and structural weakness.

El Faro was much older than the average container ship worldwide, which is just under 11 years old, but her owner told the AP the boat was in good condition and suited to rough weather because she was built for Alaskan trade: “She is a sturdy, rugged vessel that was well maintained and that the crew members were proud of.”

Beyond that, large container ships are generally built to withstand major storms.

The nature of the business is that captains still have great discretion in how they choose to handle a storm, or whether to try to avoid it.

El Faro had a built-in advantage in that it was carrying cargo; an empty ship is harder to handle in rolling waves, Popular Mechanics noted in 2012.

Port has its own risks—a ship can be battered against a pier or run aground.

That encourages some captains to stay at sea.

Before losing contact, El Faro radioed that it was aware of the weather and was prepared.

But, retired captain Max Hardberger wrote for the trade site gCaptain, “If the master does decide to put to sea, he should realize that he may be exchanging a dangerous situation for a suicidal one.”

If in a storm, however, the captain has to concentrate on two things, he wrote: keep plenty of room away from shore, reefs, and other obstacles; and keep the boat pointing into the waves.

Steering-way is necessary to keep the bow into the wind and waves.

If the main engine fails and the ship falls off broadside to the waves, it will be in a perilous situation.

The ship must also have adequate sea room to leeward, both as insurance in case she loses steering-way and to counter the effects of wind, waves, and current.

If the master has any doubts about his searoom, he must make way offshore while it is still possible. Failing all that, ships are typically equipped with enclosed lifeboats that can launch in a storm and will withstand bad conditions.

In pitching seas, it can be impossible to launch a traditional, uncovered lifeboat.

A boat from the famous Edmund Fitzgerald, found shorn apart after the sinking, shows their inadequacy. But a crew needs to have some warning in order to get into modern lifeboats, too.

So far, searchers have found one of the ship’s two boats.

It was empty.

Links :

The Guardian : First signs of debris in search for cargo ship and 33 crew missing in hurricane / El Faro cargo ship crew members probably overwhelmed by hurricane conditions

Tuesday, October 6, 2015

Oil companies in the Arctic : A rig too far

Putting the Chukchi Sea on ice, again

From The Economist

Shell’s retreat from the frozen north shows the new realities of “big oil”

Oil companies have a proud history of digging holes in inaccessible places and producing gushers of money.
But in the Chukchi Sea, in the Alaskan Arctic, Shell has poured $7 billion into a single 6,800-foot exploratory well, making it possibly the most expensive hole yet drilled, only to admit this week that it had not found enough oil and gas to make further exploration worthwhile.

That was a big climbdown for a company that had spent seven years since acquiring the Chukchi licenses in 2008 in a highly public, drawn-out battle to drill in the Arctic.
The decision boiled down to costs, financial and reputational.
Most big oil firms face similar pressures.
Some will take a lesson from Shell and put their Arctic plans on hold, though Eni, a big Italian oil firm, is vowing to press ahead with its efforts to drill in the Norwegian Arctic.

As the oil price has fallen by more than half over the past year, the economics of drilling in deep and treacherous waters have worsened considerably.
Though Shell had sought to play down the dangers of its Chukchi conquest, observers long ago reckoned it had bitten off more than it could chew.
It suffered a slew of mishaps in 2012, culminating on December 31st of that year in a drilling rig breaking loose from its tow lines and running aground.

New marine tracking data shows MSV Fennica, a Shell-contracted icebreaker may have crossed through shallow waters that offered little clearance between the vessel’s bottom and the ocean floor before a 3-foot hole was discovered in its hull.

Damaged Arctic icebreaker’s route questioned

After that episode, Ben van Beurden, installed as Shell’s chief executive in 2014, could have halted the ill-fated project.
But after a “personal journey”, he decided to go ahead.
Since then, Shell has portrayed Arctic drilling as somewhat of a mission, saying the prospective hydrocarbon reserves—ten times the total produced so far in the North Sea—are needed to provide energy for a global population expected to rise from 7 billion to 9 billion by 2050.

Analysts say it was more about shoring up Shell’s reserve base, at a time when oil and gas deposits are increasingly held either by national oil companies or by nimble American “frackers”.
Last year Shell replaced only 26% of the 1.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) that it produced.
It has told investors that the Arctic was the best long-term bet for filling that gap, expecting it to provide at least 500m boe after 15 years.
Now it will need new alternatives.
If its £47 billion ($70 billion) takeover of BG Group, a British firm, goes ahead, that is one: it will increase Shell’s oil and gas reserves by a quarter.

Shell in Beaufort and Chukchi Seas

Reputation was another factor in Shell’s retreat.
A company that was among the first oil majors to acknowledge the risk of human-induced global warming in the 1990s—and one that has joined with other European oil firms to advocate carbon pricing ahead of the climate-change talks in Paris later this year—was embarrassed to be pilloried for its Arctic drilling by environmental groups and politicians.
Just as serious were the concerns of Shell’s own shareholders.
Many of these, including some big pension funds, questioned its climate-change credentials at its annual meeting in May.

The stockmarket is taking the news in its stride.
But internally, the abandonment of the Arctic project will lead to soul-searching.
Shell is staffed more by boffins than roughnecks, who pride themselves on their ability to overcome great challenges with technology.
It has been in this predicament before.
In the early 1990s it gave up an earlier attempt to explore in the Chukchi Sea after prices tumbled.
Its decision to do so again, and big cutbacks by rival oil firms, may help crude prices eventually to recover.
But if one day Arctic oil and gas look promising once more, don’t expect much enthusiasm from Shell.

Links :

Fuelfix : Shell’s aggressive bidding after reserves scandal plotted path to Arctic disappointment
NYTimes : Shell Exits Arctic as Slump in Oil Prices Forces Industry to Retrench
Medium : Shell resigns the Arctic
GeoGarage blog : What happens when oil spills in the Arctic? / Rig runs aground in Alaska, reviving fears about Arctic drilling

Monday, October 5, 2015

Sailing just got simpler with Assisted Sail Trim (AST)

AST is a very special topic: Sails metrics and computer assisted sails Trim.

Jeanneau’s exclusive ASSISTED SAIL TRIM technology delivers peace of mind and ease of handling This Jeanneau innovation, co-developed in partnership with Harken, allows to trim the sails and remotely operate the winches directly from a screen at the helm station.

Designed to ensure comfortable and easy sailing, the ASSISTED SAIL TRIM system is ideal for short-handed cruising.

100% user-friendly and intuitive, it brings numerous features to cruising in the same way as the autopilot does.

From Jeanneau

Jeanneau and Harken are glad to announce the launch of their exclusive innovation making sailing easier.

Result of a close collaboration between Jeanneau, leading sailboat producer, and Harken, specialized manufacturer and distributor of innovative sailboat hardware and accessories, the AST “Assisted Sail Trim” reinvents cruising and shorthanded sailing.

This collaboration has produced an advanced system to make sailing easier for families, cruisers, shorthanded crews, solo sailors, and those with limited mobility.

The system, consisting of three OEM packages, offers sensor-guided, push-button sail control.

The Auto Tacking base package adjusts the headsail for the new tack while you steer through the maneuver. Sensors detect wind speed and apparent wind for safety.
Auto Trim is the perfect complement to Auto Tacking for easy cruising. Set the initial trim, press the button to engage Auto Trim, and then let the system handle sheeting. The system monitors apparent wind for perfect trim while you relax at the helm. An integrated heel control detects gusts and limits heel to your desired setting for maximum passenger comfort.
The Sail Management package, which will debut in coming seasons, can hoist and douse the main or genoa. Load sensors detect jams and allow the halyard to be eased for safe operation.

All functions, as well as push-button control over each winch, are operated from a cockpit display.
Harken Rewind™ winches or Captive Reel winches allow the system to both trim and ease without manual intervention.
All packages feature full redundancy and manual backup in the event of power loss.

Jeanneau will debut the Auto Tacking and Auto Trim packages on its Sun Odyssey range under the name Assisted Sail Trim (AST).
The AST will be exclusive to Jeanneau Sun Odyssey during the 2015 season.

“It’s been a challenge to keep this project secret through years of development and on-the-water testing, but this finely-tuned system was definitely worth the wait,” says Davide Burrini, Harken International OEM Sales Manager.
“By centralizing controls, integrating wind and equipment sensors, and allowing skippers to control all sheeting from the helm, this project has the potential to revolutionize cruising and shorthanded sailing.”

Erik Stromberg, Sailboat Product Director Jeanneau said, “This project has been a very unique collaboration.It has at times been difficult to tell where our Harken partners ended and we at Jeanneau began.The result is quite an elegant system, with room to grow its capabilities built right in. Our AST will give Jeanneau owners more of the relaxation they love about sailing, with less of the sail handling and adjustments that can sometimes intrude.”

Discover the AST brochure: www.jeanneau.fr/brochure/assisted-sail-trim

Links :