From NASA
For much of the past decade, a puzzle has been confounding the climate science community.
Nearly all of the measurable
indicators of global climate change—such
as sea level, ice cover on land and sea, atmospheric carbon dioxide
concentrations—show a world changing on short, medium, and long time
scales.
But for the better part of a decade, global surface temperatures
appeared to level off.
The
overall, long-term trend was upward, but the climb was less steep from 2003–2012.
Some scientists, the media, and climate contrarians began referring to it as “the
hiatus.”
If greenhouse gases are still increasing and all other indicators
show warming-related change, why wouldn’t surface temperatures keep
climbing steadily, year after year?
One of the leading explanations
offered by scientists was that extra heat was being stored in the ocean.
Now a new analysis by three ocean scientists at NASA’s
Jet Propulsion Laboratory
not only confirms that the extra heat has been going into the ocean,
but it shows where.
According to research by Veronica Nieves, Josh
Willis, and Bill Patzert, the waters of the Western Pacific and the
Indian Ocean warmed significantly from 2003 to 2012.
But the warming did
not occur at the surface; it showed up below 10 meters (32 feet) in
depth, and mostly between 100 to 300 meters (300 to 1,000 feet) below
the sea surface.
They
published their results on July 9, 2015, in the journal
Science.
Schematic of the trends in temperature and ocean–atmosphere circulation in the Pacific over the past two decades.
Colour shading shows observed temperature trends (°C per decade) during 1992–2011 at the sea surface (Northern Hemisphere only), zonally averaged in the latitude-depth sense and along the equatorial Pacific…
“Overall, the ocean is still absorbing extra heat,” said Willis, an
oceanographer at JPL.
“But the top couple of layers of the ocean
exchange heat easily and can keep it away from the surface for ten years
or so because of natural cycles.
In the long run, the planet is still
warming.”
To understand the slowdown in global surface warming, Nieves and
colleagues dove into two decades of ocean temperature records;
specifically, they examined data sets compiled from underwater floats
and other instruments by the
Argo
team at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, by the World Ocean
Atlas (WOA), and by Japanese scientist Masao Ishii and colleagues.
The
JPL team found that for most of the decade from 2003–2012, waters near
the surface (0–10 meters) of the Pacific Ocean cooled across much of the
basin.
However, the water in lower layers—10–100 meters, 100–200
meters, and 200–300 meters—warmed.
The animated map at the top of this page shows the trends in water
temperatures in various depth layers of the ocean as measured between
2003 and 2012.
Areas in red depict warming trends in degrees Celsius per
year, while blues depict cooling trends.
Warming is most acute between
100–200 meters in the western Pacific and the eastern Indian Ocean. Some
areas of the Pacific appear to cool—particularly near the surface and
in the eastern half, which correlates well with the cool phase of the
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which has been underway for much of the past 15 to 20 years.
Note that the Atlantic Ocean does not show significant trends at any
depth, with warming temperatures in one place counter-balanced by
cooling in others.
The Atlantic basin is also relatively small compared
to the Pacific and does not have as much impact on global temperatures.
The JPL team also noted that the temperature signal was neutral or
inconclusive at depths below 300 meters, where measurements are
relatively sparse.
The figure below depicts the trends in a different way.
It represents
a cross-section of the top 300 meters of the global ocean and how
temperatures changed from 1993 to 2012.
Note how there are cooler waters
near the surface in several years in the 2000s, but that waters at
depth grow much warmer.
Note, too, how the overall trend in 20 years
goes from a cooling ocean to a significantly warmer ocean.
Nieves, Willis, and Patzert were provoked to launch the study because
they wanted a more detailed, nuanced picture of ocean temperatures than
is possible with most models.
On a broad scale, models can replicate
broad and long-term trends in the sea; but on smaller scales of space
and time, a lot of the models cannot match real-world conditions.
The
new findings should help improve models of ocean heat storage and
climate impacts on regional scales.
The Pacific Ocean covers nearly one-third of Earth’s surface, so it
has an outsized impact on the global thermostat.
“As the top 100 meters
of the Pacific goes, so goes the surface temperatures of the planet,”
said Patzert, a climatologist at JPL.
With the surface layer of the
ocean being cooler for much of the study period, those waters had a
moderating effect on air masses and weather systems on the continents.
However, ocean and air temperatures have started to rise swiftly in the
past two to three years, which suggests that the cool phase of the PDO
and the warming hiatus is over.
“Natural, decadal variability has been with us for centuries, and it
continues to have big regional impacts on society,” said Nieves, a JPL
scientist with a joint appointment at the University of California, Los
Angeles.
“We can expect to have more hiatuses in the future, but unless
future hiatuses are stronger than usual, they will be less visible due
to fast rising greenhouse gases. Right now, the combined effect of the
human-caused warming and the Pacific changing to a warm phase can play
together and produce warming acceleration.”