Here, the fastest winds are colored red; slower winds are blue.
From LivScience by Becky Oskin
This winter's wild weather got its start 4,000 years ago, a new study finds.
The roaring jet stream, whose swooping winds drove frigid cold in the
East and record warmth in the West this winter, first started twisting
and turning about 4,000 years ago, according to a new analysis of
ancient rainfall records from North America.
Jet stream winds race from west to east, and kinks in the narrow atmospheric current can suck Arctic cold south or hold warm air in place.
The study shows the jet stream's plunging pattern is a long-standing
natural phenomenon.
However, the findings also suggest that
global warming
may boost the frequency or intensity of the curves, which would mean
more winter extremes in the United States and Canada, the researchers
said.
The study was published today (April 16) in the journal Nature
Communications.
"The pattern we've observed points to a strong potential for an
increase in winter extremes in the future," said Gabe Bowen, a study
co-author and paleoclimatologist at the University of Utah.
Bowen and his co-authors examined the 8,000-year history of a weather
pattern called the Pacific-North America Teleconnection.
The
teleconnection refers to blobs of high and low atmospheric pressure
above the Pacific Ocean and North America that direct the jet stream's
strength and location.
Lead study author Zhongfang Liu, now at the Tianjin Key Laboratory in
China, tracked the jet stream's location for the past 8,000 years with
oxygen isotopes (atoms of the same element with different numbers of
neutrons) from caves and lake sediments.
The ratio of certain
oxygen isotopes
reveals the history of rainwater, such as how cold the air was when the
water fell and where the water came from.
Looking at the rainwater's
history helps trace the pattern of the jet stream, which drives storms
across the continent.
The team also compared their rainfall records with
tree ring records and more recent instrumental data.
What is the jet stream?
How does the jet stream affect our weather?
This animation explains how the jet stream works.
The rainfall patterns reveal the jet stream was relatively "flat,"
moving straight and steady from about 8,000 to 4,000 years ago, the
study reports.
Then, about 4,000 years ago, the amount of
solar energy
reaching the Northern Hemisphere dropped. (This drop was caused by
Earth's 20,000-year precession, the slow change in its rotation axis.)
The change in the sun's energy altered worldwide climate, such as
triggering a stronger El Niño/La Niña cycle and a shift in monsoonal
rainfall over India and Pakistan.
The jet stream pattern also shifted 4,000 years ago, going from flat to
curvy over a period of about 500 years, the researchers found.
For
example, the isotopes show more Arctic air moving south in the East, and
more tropical air heading north in the West, consistent with wrinkles
in the jet stream.
The curves help explain why some parts of North
America became colder or wetter, while others grew drier or warmer,
Bowen said.
"We knew the changing seasonality of the climate in North America
wasn't uniform, and we were able to link it to this change in the jet
stream," Bowen said.
These maps show winter temperature patterns (top) and winter precipitation patterns (bottom) associated with a curvy jet stream.
Credit: Zhongfang Liu, Tianjin Normal University, China
Sun to blame?
So was this winter's bizarre weather the result of natural climate swings?
Not at all, Bowen said.
"All things being equal, with the solar forcing that kicked in 4,000
years ago, we'd actually expect to be heading the other way now and
starting to decrease the jet stream curviness," Bowen told Live Science.
A
short review of how the jetstream and Rossby waves work, and some
emerging indications that the dynamics may be changing in a warming
world.
Several recent studies have argued that the jet stream's twists and turns are being
exacerbated by climate change.
That's because the jet stream's high-speed air current forms at the
border between hot and cold air masses.
As global warming changes the
distribution of hot and cold air on the planet, the location and pattern
of the jet stream may change too.
"Whether the Pacific-North America Teleconnection will continue to vary
in the future as it has for the past few thousand years will have
important implications in terms of water availability and climate in the
western United States," said Max Berkelhammer, a hydrologist at the
University of Illinois, Chicago, who was not involved in the study
But until now, only a century of instrumental records have been available to model the jet stream's response to
global warming.
The new study "gives us a good look at natural variability so that we
can gain a better understanding about how the jet stream has responded
to past changes," said Lesleigh Anderson, a research geologist with the
U.S. Geological Survey who was not involved in the study
"This is what
we need to know to better understand what could happen in the future
with rising carbon dioxide."